New poll: Obama up 6 in Nevada, Heller/Berkley is dead heat (IMPORTANT INTERNALS)

[RandySF]

Obama is leading Romney among independents in the poll by 51 percent to 40 percent. If that sub-group number is accurate, Romney is dead in Nevada.

A couple of notes on the sample for Republicans already wailing this is a Democratic poll:

The partisan breakdown is: 36 percent of the sample are registered Republicans, 42 percent are registered Democrats, and 23 percent are not affiliated with either party. The Democrats actually have a 7 percent registration lead, so this assumes a slight GOP turnout advantage. Looks as if they will need a much bigger one to turn these numbers around.

Grove also has only 12 percent Hispanics in the mix. That would seem to be a low estimate. I have heard some pessimistic Democrats say it may not get to 15 percent again, but it's hard to argue that 12 percent is anything but a very conservative estimate.

Bottom line: Grove has done work in Nevada and knows the state. While any pollster can produce bad data, if this one is right, there is almost no way for Romney to win Nevada.


http://www.ralstonreports.com/blog/new-poll-obama-6-nevada-hellerberkley-dead-heat#.UI80bX30O_4

[-LOKI -BAD FOR YA]

1. the important bit of info is

In the U.S. Senate race, Heller is up, 44 percent to 43 percent. Among those who have voted early, Berkley leads, 45-43. If this is true, it's going to be a long night Tuesday. Recount anyone? i think berkley will win the dynamics are in her favor.

[Egalitarian Thug]

2. I'm more worried about the legislative than the Presidential. Nevada Democrats, the ones that run

this party, are a corrupt and sorry lot. They chase so many voters away from the party with their open greed and sweetheart deals that they create these close races.