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MineralMan

(151,544 posts)
Fri May 6, 2022, 02:38 PM May 2022

Things We Have Learned about the Russian Military and Its Capabilities

Our own military intelligence branches know a great deal about the Russian military. Even so, we are learning additional things from Russia's attempted invasion of Ukraine. Some of what we are learning is bad news for Russia. By engaging in that invasion, Russia is revealing information it probably would rather we don't know. For example:

The Russian military, like ours, has developed secure, encrypted communications systems for its operations. However, Russia apparently does not have enough of it to supply its field units. A lot of the communications in the field have been unencrypted and transmitted on open channels that are easy to intercept. Field units are even using cell phones, something our own forces would never do.

Russian armored divisions have equipment aplenty, but cannot support that equipment with fuel on a long march into a territory. We saw tanks, armored personnel carriers, and much more bogged down and at a standstill on the route headed toward Kiiv. Worse, those convoys of armor were poorly protected and highly vulnerable to attack by small Ukrainian patrols carrying man-portable anti-tank armaments.

Russian military personnel are relatively poorly trained and poorly led. It is telling that Ukrainian farmers were able to tow off armored vehicles, rocket launchers, and other equipment with tractors. The Russian vehicles were out of fuel and apparently abandoned and left defenseless. Worse, for Russia, the equipment is the same as that in use by the Ukrainian army, so it can be turned against Russian forces, very easily.

We learned just how poorly trained and led the Russian troops really are. We've known for a very long time that Russian operates on a top-down leadership model. It doesn't have a large corps of well-trained NCOs. Worse, highly-ranked officers accompany military units to provide overall leadership. Many people, all the way up to General officers have been killed due to that practice.

Russian air operations, too, are spotty and sparse. Russian has state-of-the-art aircraft, but not enough of them, so much of the Russian air support and attack force is flying outdated aircraft. Often it is the same types flown by Ukraine. Worse, the pilots are poorly trained and do not fly frequently. Why? Because the planes are expensive to operate and maintain. So, portable ground to air missiles, including man-portable ones, have taken out Russian planes. Helicopters, as well. It's not safe to fly in Ukraine for Russian air force pilots.

And here's the kicker: Russia isn't really involved in any other foreign conflicts right now. Its forces are not spread out all over the planet. So, the poor performance of its military in Ukraine gives us a good look at what that military is capable of. Russia simply does not have a reliable military it can send into the field against any well-trained and well-supplied military of any country. That is especially true of NATO countries. Russia is out of its comfort zone in Ukraine. It can't handle a conflict with any NATO forces. Period.

We have learned a great deal. None of it is good news for Russia. Really, the Ukraine invasion is an embarrassment for Putin's Russia. Russia's military looks a lot like a Keystone Kops movie. That said, Russia has had to resort to attacking civilian targets from a safe distance. It's not a good look for Putin at all.

Everyone else is paying close attention. All of NATO is doing a face-palm, I think.

Really, Putin? This is what you have? OK, then...

12 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Things We Have Learned about the Russian Military and Its Capabilities (Original Post) MineralMan May 2022 OP
Can they fight? Can they occupy? underpants May 2022 #1
The Invasion Has Not Gone Well MineralMan May 2022 #2
In the way-back, after Vietnam, signals intelligence was seen as the future Model35mech May 2022 #3
Russia spends approx 62 billion on its military and much of it siphoned off by higher ups PortTack May 2022 #4
I like that. LiberalFighter May 2022 #9
Potempkin superpower! hvn_nbr_2 May 2022 #5
Which isn't bad. Igel May 2022 #6
Russian Army doctrine is home defense based and logistics is heavy rail. BTG Strategy depends on uponit7771 May 2022 #7
Pootie's nuke warheads probably aren't working either FakeNoose May 2022 #8
Yes! Are they maintained? Not likely. LiberalFighter May 2022 #10
The funding was not used for defense. LiberalFighter May 2022 #11
What are your ideas on how the war can be stopped PufPuf23 May 2022 #12

underpants

(197,179 posts)
1. Can they fight? Can they occupy?
Fri May 6, 2022, 02:56 PM
May 2022

Those were my main questions over 2 months ago.
Answer to 1 is not very well
They haven’t gotten to #2 yet.

 

Model35mech

(2,047 posts)
3. In the way-back, after Vietnam, signals intelligence was seen as the future
Fri May 6, 2022, 04:29 PM
May 2022

Our motto was Vigilant Always... If I understand correctly, today's MI motto is "Nothing Is Beyond Our Reach".

And I pretty much believe that, with the aid of computers the analysis is can now useful in time-frames that are tactically very useful.

PortTack

(35,824 posts)
4. Russia spends approx 62 billion on its military and much of it siphoned off by higher ups
Fri May 6, 2022, 04:31 PM
May 2022

Even if all of their budget went to their military, it wouldn’t be enough

Some perspective
Japan and China spend approx 350+ billion
The US spends 764 billion

hvn_nbr_2

(6,817 posts)
5. Potempkin superpower!
Fri May 6, 2022, 06:02 PM
May 2022

Well, except for the nukes. In light of Ukraine, I wonder how ready their nukes are.

Igel

(37,613 posts)
6. Which isn't bad.
Fri May 6, 2022, 07:10 PM
May 2022

They produce a few of something that might well be nifty so that everybody says, "Oooh ... Look what *they* have."

It's a thin veneer of sophistication for show.

Look at the size of their Army. (Our wrong assumption the Russians rightly assume we'll assume: They're trained well.)


To be honest, I'm surprised. I was of the "Oooh ... Look what *they* have" school. It's a teachable moment--with the caveat that the details matter, and if they produce something nifty and "oooh-able" and then make 200k of them *then* we should all go "oooh!" But we shouldn't miss that second part.

uponit7771

(93,532 posts)
7. Russian Army doctrine is home defense based and logistics is heavy rail. BTG Strategy depends on
Fri May 6, 2022, 07:15 PM
May 2022

... local militia for combined arm forces even otherwise they attack by hordes.

No hordes, or 10 - 1, no winning of any battles then the military goes full orc on the populous.

They're not fighting guys on the back of Yota pick up trucks with ATGMs so they're out of the element now

PufPuf23

(9,945 posts)
12. What are your ideas on how the war can be stopped
Fri May 6, 2022, 07:48 PM
May 2022

and stabilized?

The situation is much more complex than Korea.

Agree very much the clusterfuck for Russia.

The best I can come up with is for NATO to build up troops on the borders with Russia (and allies), threaten to enter Ukraine and Russia for direct confrontation, and call the nuke bluff.

That is a huge and risky bluff of both nuclear war and WWIII (that some say has already started).

I worry about Russia doing things specifically to weaken the alliance between Europe NATO and the USA.

China, an ally of Russia via the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, benefits if the war remains regional, much as the USA benefited in the aftermath of WWII. If China wants eastern Russia for natural resources or population, I cannot see how Russia could do anything but MAD.

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