Nate Silver on the Roe V Wade thing

[ColinC]

Link to tweet

?s=20&t=8ONyOiRJ5ps0URyao0s5Kw

Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Why Roe could matter, electorally: Voters like the status quo, and usually the party out of power doesn't get to enact major policy changes. Roe being overturned would be a *major* exception and would remind voters how much power Republicans have via courts and state governments.
9:03 AM · May 6, 2022

It is a clear reminder that the party in control of Congress and the presidency is not actually the party in power.

[JohnSJ]

1. It doesn't help that it is a 50-50 Senate either, so I would use that term majority loosely with

Manchin and Sinema

[ColinC]

2. Truth

Democrats really don't have much power. The courts have functioned as an effective foil for the Democrats which could definitely be helpful in November.

[JohnSJ]

3. Still I hope Roe finally is the issue that throw republicans out of power

[ColinC]

4. I have been sure that if that happened, it would

Last edited Sat May 7, 2022, 01:45 AM - Edit history (1)

It is terrible that it got to this point, but electorally I see it as quite advantageous for Democrats.


Also this tweet was shared by Dave Wasserman. His whole narrative of Democrats having a horrible year may be taking a strong turn the other direction not too long from now.

[JohnSJ]

5. I hope so Colin. Dave Wasserman is from the Cook Political Report, and his analysis is

Last edited Sat May 7, 2022, 01:53 AM - Edit history (1)

usually right on

[ColinC]

6. Agreed