General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsJudge Approves N.Y. House Map, Cementing Chaos for Democrats
The new district lines, approved late Friday night, will create pickup opportunities for Republicans and force Democratic incumbents to run against each other.https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/21/nyregion/redistrict-map-nadler-maloney.html
https://archive.ph/zKBCB

A state court formally approved New Yorks new congressional map late Friday, ratifying a slate of House districts drawn by a neutral expert that could pave the way for Democratic losses this fall and force some of the partys most prominent incumbents to face off in primary matches.
The map, approved just before a midnight deadline set by Justice Patrick F. McAllister of State Supreme Court in Steuben County, effectively unwinds an attempted Democratic gerrymander, creates a raft of new swing seats across the state, and scrambles some carefully laid lines that have long determined centers of power in New York City. Jonathan R. Cervas, the court-appointed mapmaker, made relatively minor changes to a draft proposal released earlier this week whose sweeping changes briefly united both Republicans and Democrats in exasperation and turned Democrats against each other.
In Manhattan, the final map would still merge the seats of Representatives Carolyn Maloney and Jerrold Nadler, setting the two Democratic committee leaders, who have served alongside each other for 30 years, onto an increasingly inevitable collision course. Another awkward Democratic primary loomed up the Hudson in Westchester County, where two Black Democratic House members were drawn into a single district.
But the worst outcome for Democrats appeared to be averted early Saturday morning when one of the incumbents, Representative Mondaire Jones, said he would forego re-election in his Westchester seat. He said he would run instead in a newly reconfigured 10th Congressional District in Lower Manhattan and Brooklyn, a race that has already drawn the candidacy of Bill de Blasio, the former New York City mayor, but which no other sitting House member is expected to enter.
Link to tweet
snip
Six Things to Know About New Yorks New Congressional Map
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2022/05/six-things-to-know-about-new-yorks-new-congressional-map.html
https://archive.ph/mqSNI#selection-1227.0-1227.57
The chaos that has upended this years congressional races in New York entered a new phase overnight Friday, when a court-appointed special master a postdoctoral fellow at Carnegie Mellon named Jonathan Cervas published new, court-approved district lines, dropped electronically in the middle of the night, that have literally redrawn the map of power in New York. Below are six things to know about how we got here, what it means, and what comes next.
This looks like its been gerrymandered to make sure Black people are not represented. It is an outrage, Senator Kirsten Gillibrand told me this week in response to a preliminary version of new congressional maps that cut Bedford-Stuyvesant in half and dropped Brooklyns two Black members of Congress, Hakeem Jeffries and Yvette Clarke, into the same district.
Chopping up Bed-Stuy would have been an especially bitter pill to swallow: for decades, the large Black community had been divided across several congressional districts, allowing white congressmen to win year after year. It took a 1966 lawsuit, Cooper v. Power, to create a united neighborhood that promptly resulted in Shirley Chisholm becoming the first Black woman elected to Congress in 1968.
Jeffries an attorney widely considered to be in line to become Speaker of the House in the near future had tweeted that the initial proposed maps take a sledge hammer to Black communities. Its enough to make Jim Crow blush. He also openly floated the idea of a lawsuit to challenge the maps as a violation of the Voting Rights Act, which prohibits diluting the power of communities of interest along racial lines.
Link to tweet
snip
ColinC
(11,098 posts)Wasserman sys 21D-5R from the last presidential election .
FBaggins
(28,705 posts)It's really 20-6 (the 19th is R+1 on the 538 analysis) - but four of those 20 are only D+1 or D+2 and two of them have republican incumbents.
It's a map that could easily end up with ten republicans - replacing a map that might have had only four.
Not "decent" at all.
ColinC
(11,098 posts)I guess that's where I mean "decent." But yes, the gerrymander would be much better for Dems overall to compete with the ones from Florida, etc.
I think there should be a federal law/ amendment to ban gerrymandering.
Celerity
(54,333 posts)original new map from the NY state legislature that was tossed.
you left out the last part of Wassermann's tweet:
Link to tweet
ColinC
(11,098 posts)The GOP proposal was 21R 5D
Celerity
(54,333 posts)disastrous, ruinous net 14 seat loss (we lose 7, the Rethugs gain 7) just from NY, compared to the original NY Dem legislature-drawn map, plus a restoration of that lost seat (we lost it by a very small amount of NY population loss from the Census).
That level of loss basically 99% guarantees we lose the House (as we have been hammered in other states' Rethug partisan maps, plus even with a completely fair set of state maps, we were in big trouble).
The GOP proposal was 21R 5D
The Rethugs are a massive MINORITY in both NY as a state and in the NY assembly, so even if they put out that map (I never saw such a map, I do not think it would even be mathematically possible to draw such a map) it had ZERO chance of ever seeing the light of day.
ColinC
(11,098 posts)repugs had a majority in the legislature not too long ago... Dems only took back a majority in both houses fairly recently.
Celerity
(54,333 posts)gambit in NY State Senate, that took away the real Dem majority for a a spell in the 2010's.
We have a HUGE, veto proof majority in the NY Senate now.


Also, The NY Assembly has been controlled by the Democratic Party since 1975 by MASSIVE margins, so the Rethugs could not have done shit.

Finally, as I stated above, it is mathematically impossible to draw a map in NY that gives them your claimed 21R 5 D majority.
You would have to draw illegal districts that rammed in millions of Dems into a few mega districts, that would be instantly struck down.
You cannot have a series of US House seats with a small, tiny number of Rethugs and also almost no Dems (so a Deep red micro district), and then slam in 1, 2, even 3 million Dems into a Blue blob mega trap district, then repeat that with another huge Blue blob trap district, then another, etc etc.
ColinC
(11,098 posts)But that might not always be the reality. Even if it doesn't sui us for now, the long term effects of the redistricting rules will likely benefit Democrats.
Also gerrymanders like the ones in Illinois, Oregon, etc have helped balance out the losses we got in New York. Overall 538 says we have turned at least 8 competitive seats into strong Dem seats while holding the vast majority of the already strong leaning Dem seats.
Celerity
(54,333 posts)ColinC
(11,098 posts)Celerity
(54,333 posts)Link to tweet
ColinC
(11,098 posts)It isn't much worse. In fact it is still better. Even if it is much worse than what it can or should be at if things weren't so lopsided.
ColinC
(11,098 posts)Regardless of if we use the current maps or the ones from Feb/March, if Dems have a good or bad year it wouldn't make a difference in terms of who wins control of the chamber. Wasserman was just as pessimistic for Dems chances in March/Feb as he is now. Because, frankly the electoral winds will still decide things.
I personally think we can't do much worse than last year because our ground game was hindered from covid. This year is already looking way better if you see the turnout in places like Georgia, and the effects that the roe v Wade decision will likely have on overall Dem motivations.
brooklynite
(96,882 posts)It would never have been passed. Tha Court of Appeals and the legislature is heavily Democratic.
ColinC
(11,098 posts)Republicans held the state Senate until 2018. It could always go back in a bad year. If that bad year is 2030, that point is no longer meaningless.
brooklynite
(96,882 posts)when the Democrats need every House seat they can win.
ColinC
(11,098 posts)It will just be harder than one had hoped due to a fair ny map.
brooklynite
(96,882 posts)That I could have spent trying to win elsewhere.
Ill be happy to live with a fair map when all the otherStates do.
ColinC
(11,098 posts)I would prefer the unfair map in ny due to the overall situation, but I am still somewhat pleased with the overall fact that more seats went the direction of Democrats than to Republicans with redistricting (according to the 538 estimate: of course this simply means that competitive seats held by Dems are more democratic). We shall see 🤷♀️
ColinC
(11,098 posts)Bring it to the 23d 3r reality that the gerrymandering was trying to get at.
Celerity
(54,333 posts)RKP5637
(67,112 posts)that's it. Also, IMO, the damn Electoral College should be dumped!
FakeNoose
(41,540 posts)Let's not kid ourselves, this was completely intentional. Chump did it all when he failed to administer/manage the Census during Covid times and then he turned his back on all of it. He flipped the bird at all the American voters, especially in the populated eastern states. But I'll wager he doesn't care much about the western states either.
Not enough census workers were hired, and the door-to-door canvassing that was done in previous decades had to be vastly curtailed or else completely dropped. Numbers have been undercounted in most areas of the eastern seaboard, especially the urban areas. That means we'll all be under-represented in Congress and that's just fine with Chump.
Is there any way we can impeach Chump a THIRD time? I think he deserves it.
former9thward
(33,424 posts)They over counted in New York. They gave it 695,000 more people that actually live there. An accurate count would have cost NY yet another House seat.
https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2022/pes-2020-undercount-overcount-by-state.html
ananda
(35,093 posts)Grrr
Celerity
(54,333 posts)Patrick McAllister is a judge for the Steuben County Surrogate's Court in New York. McAllister won the seat in the general election on November 7, 2017. He filed with the Republican, Conservative, and Independence parties.