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Celerity

(54,333 posts)
Sat May 21, 2022, 11:09 AM May 2022

Judge Approves N.Y. House Map, Cementing Chaos for Democrats

The new district lines, approved late Friday night, will create pickup opportunities for Republicans and force Democratic incumbents to run against each other.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/21/nyregion/redistrict-map-nadler-maloney.html

https://archive.ph/zKBCB



A state court formally approved New York’s new congressional map late Friday, ratifying a slate of House districts drawn by a neutral expert that could pave the way for Democratic losses this fall and force some of the party’s most prominent incumbents to face off in primary matches.

The map, approved just before a midnight deadline set by Justice Patrick F. McAllister of State Supreme Court in Steuben County, effectively unwinds an attempted Democratic gerrymander, creates a raft of new swing seats across the state, and scrambles some carefully laid lines that have long determined centers of power in New York City. Jonathan R. Cervas, the court-appointed mapmaker, made relatively minor changes to a draft proposal released earlier this week whose sweeping changes briefly united both Republicans and Democrats in exasperation and turned Democrats against each other.

In Manhattan, the final map would still merge the seats of Representatives Carolyn Maloney and Jerrold Nadler, setting the two Democratic committee leaders, who have served alongside each other for 30 years, onto an increasingly inevitable collision course. Another awkward Democratic primary loomed up the Hudson in Westchester County, where two Black Democratic House members were drawn into a single district.

But the worst outcome for Democrats appeared to be averted early Saturday morning when one of the incumbents, Representative Mondaire Jones, said he would forego re-election in his Westchester seat. He said he would run instead in a newly reconfigured 10th Congressional District in Lower Manhattan and Brooklyn, a race that has already drawn the candidacy of Bill de Blasio, the former New York City mayor, but which no other sitting House member is expected to enter.



snip



Six Things to Know About New York’s New Congressional Map

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2022/05/six-things-to-know-about-new-yorks-new-congressional-map.html

https://archive.ph/mqSNI#selection-1227.0-1227.57

The chaos that has upended this year’s congressional races in New York entered a new phase overnight Friday, when a court-appointed special master — a postdoctoral fellow at Carnegie Mellon named Jonathan Cervas — published new, court-approved district lines, dropped electronically in the middle of the night, that have literally redrawn the map of power in New York. Below are six things to know about how we got here, what it means, and what comes next.

“This looks like it’s been gerrymandered to make sure Black people are not represented. It is an outrage,” Senator Kirsten Gillibrand told me this week in response to a preliminary version of new congressional maps that cut Bedford-Stuyvesant in half and dropped Brooklyn’s two Black members of Congress, Hakeem Jeffries and Yvette Clarke, into the same district.

Chopping up Bed-Stuy would have been an especially bitter pill to swallow: for decades, the large Black community had been divided across several congressional districts, allowing white congressmen to win year after year. It took a 1966 lawsuit, Cooper v. Power, to create a united neighborhood that promptly resulted in Shirley Chisholm becoming the first Black woman elected to Congress in 1968.

Jeffries — an attorney widely considered to be in line to become Speaker of the House in the near future — had tweeted that the initial proposed maps “take a sledge hammer to Black communities. It’s enough to make Jim Crow blush.” He also openly floated the idea of a lawsuit to challenge the maps as a violation of the Voting Rights Act, which prohibits diluting the power of communities of interest along racial lines.




snip
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Judge Approves N.Y. House Map, Cementing Chaos for Democrats (Original Post) Celerity May 2022 OP
Actually somewhat decent maps for Dems. ColinC May 2022 #1
Not compared to where things were FBaggins May 2022 #2
I mean, could be much worse ColinC May 2022 #3
No, as we potentially could end up with as few as 16 seats, versus a very likely 22 based off the Celerity May 2022 #5
Am I the only one that doesn think the worst case scenario of 16d 10 r is that bad? ColinC May 2022 #6
16 D seats, plus the lost NY seat to reapportionment (it went to TX if memory serves) would be a Celerity May 2022 #9
While what you say is true, the possibility is still not unheard of ColinC May 2022 #10
You are talking about that bullshit Cuomo-spun up Independent Democratic Conference (IDC) Celerity May 2022 #14
Yeah. The reality of the present speaks for itself, as you say. ColinC May 2022 #20
Also ColinC May 2022 #12
You need to update your figures, we have taken some big losses since that February/March false dawn. Celerity May 2022 #15
Republicans have 1 gain. Dems have 7. ColinC May 2022 #16
Dave Wasserman: Democrats had a really strong Dec-Feb in redistricting battles. But the last few Celerity May 2022 #18
Right. But all I'm saying is that compared to the old map where Dems still have a majority ColinC May 2022 #19
I also want to add that regardless of the maps ColinC May 2022 #22
The Republicans map is a ,eamingless reference point. brooklynite May 2022 #13
That is only a 4 year old reality ColinC May 2022 #17
We're not talking about 2030; we're talking about now... brooklynite May 2022 #24
And the reality is that they will still win every house seat they can ColinC May 2022 #25
IAnd I will have to waste money on NY seats... brooklynite May 2022 #27
Agreed ColinC May 2022 #28
And if we have a good year, there are still some pick up opportunities that can ColinC May 2022 #7
22 was the original D target (NY lost a seat due to reapportionment) Celerity May 2022 #11
IMO there should be no such thing as gerrymandering. Districts are cast by city, town, etc. and RKP5637 May 2022 #4
Chump caused this when he intentionally messed up the 2020 census FakeNoose May 2022 #8
The Census Bureau said just the opposite occurred. former9thward May 2022 #26
Neutral expert? It was neither. ananda May 2022 #21
Look at the judge! We got fucked hard (and we DOMINATE NY, how the hell did he get the map case??) Celerity May 2022 #23

ColinC

(11,098 posts)
1. Actually somewhat decent maps for Dems.
Sat May 21, 2022, 11:13 AM
May 2022

Wasserman sys 21D-5R from the last presidential election .

FBaggins

(28,705 posts)
2. Not compared to where things were
Sat May 21, 2022, 11:24 AM
May 2022

It's really 20-6 (the 19th is R+1 on the 538 analysis) - but four of those 20 are only D+1 or D+2 and two of them have republican incumbents.

It's a map that could easily end up with ten republicans - replacing a map that might have had only four.

Not "decent" at all.

ColinC

(11,098 posts)
3. I mean, could be much worse
Sat May 21, 2022, 11:26 AM
May 2022

I guess that's where I mean "decent." But yes, the gerrymander would be much better for Dems overall to compete with the ones from Florida, etc.

I think there should be a federal law/ amendment to ban gerrymandering.

Celerity

(54,333 posts)
5. No, as we potentially could end up with as few as 16 seats, versus a very likely 22 based off the
Sat May 21, 2022, 11:35 AM
May 2022

original new map from the NY state legislature that was tossed.


you left out the last part of Wassermann's tweet:

But because five of those seats are single digit Biden seats, anything from 16D-10R to 21D-5R realistic depending on the year.



ColinC

(11,098 posts)
6. Am I the only one that doesn think the worst case scenario of 16d 10 r is that bad?
Sat May 21, 2022, 11:37 AM
May 2022

The GOP proposal was 21R 5D

Celerity

(54,333 posts)
9. 16 D seats, plus the lost NY seat to reapportionment (it went to TX if memory serves) would be a
Sat May 21, 2022, 11:51 AM
May 2022

disastrous, ruinous net 14 seat loss (we lose 7, the Rethugs gain 7) just from NY, compared to the original NY Dem legislature-drawn map, plus a restoration of that lost seat (we lost it by a very small amount of NY population loss from the Census).

That level of loss basically 99% guarantees we lose the House (as we have been hammered in other states' Rethug partisan maps, plus even with a completely fair set of state maps, we were in big trouble).


The GOP proposal was 21R 5D


The Rethugs are a massive MINORITY in both NY as a state and in the NY assembly, so even if they put out that map (I never saw such a map, I do not think it would even be mathematically possible to draw such a map) it had ZERO chance of ever seeing the light of day.

ColinC

(11,098 posts)
10. While what you say is true, the possibility is still not unheard of
Sat May 21, 2022, 11:53 AM
May 2022

repugs had a majority in the legislature not too long ago... Dems only took back a majority in both houses fairly recently.

Celerity

(54,333 posts)
14. You are talking about that bullshit Cuomo-spun up Independent Democratic Conference (IDC)
Sat May 21, 2022, 12:13 PM
May 2022

gambit in NY State Senate, that took away the real Dem majority for a a spell in the 2010's.

We have a HUGE, veto proof majority in the NY Senate now.




Also, The NY Assembly has been controlled by the Democratic Party since 1975 by MASSIVE margins, so the Rethugs could not have done shit.



Finally, as I stated above, it is mathematically impossible to draw a map in NY that gives them your claimed 21R 5 D majority.

You would have to draw illegal districts that rammed in millions of Dems into a few mega districts, that would be instantly struck down.

You cannot have a series of US House seats with a small, tiny number of Rethugs and also almost no Dems (so a Deep red micro district), and then slam in 1, 2, even 3 million Dems into a Blue blob mega trap district, then repeat that with another huge Blue blob trap district, then another, etc etc.

ColinC

(11,098 posts)
20. Yeah. The reality of the present speaks for itself, as you say.
Sat May 21, 2022, 02:15 PM
May 2022

But that might not always be the reality. Even if it doesn't sui us for now, the long term effects of the redistricting rules will likely benefit Democrats.

ColinC

(11,098 posts)
12. Also
Sat May 21, 2022, 11:55 AM
May 2022

Also gerrymanders like the ones in Illinois, Oregon, etc have helped balance out the losses we got in New York. Overall 538 says we have turned at least 8 competitive seats into strong Dem seats while holding the vast majority of the already strong leaning Dem seats.

Celerity

(54,333 posts)
15. You need to update your figures, we have taken some big losses since that February/March false dawn.
Sat May 21, 2022, 12:16 PM
May 2022

Celerity

(54,333 posts)
18. Dave Wasserman: Democrats had a really strong Dec-Feb in redistricting battles. But the last few
Sat May 21, 2022, 01:57 PM
May 2022
months' string of legal losses/setbacks - in AL, MD, OH, WI, NY, KS and perhaps FL (we'll see) - has been staggering.


ColinC

(11,098 posts)
19. Right. But all I'm saying is that compared to the old map where Dems still have a majority
Sat May 21, 2022, 02:13 PM
May 2022

It isn't much worse. In fact it is still better. Even if it is much worse than what it can or should be at if things weren't so lopsided.

ColinC

(11,098 posts)
22. I also want to add that regardless of the maps
Sat May 21, 2022, 02:19 PM
May 2022

Regardless of if we use the current maps or the ones from Feb/March, if Dems have a good or bad year it wouldn't make a difference in terms of who wins control of the chamber. Wasserman was just as pessimistic for Dems chances in March/Feb as he is now. Because, frankly the electoral winds will still decide things.


I personally think we can't do much worse than last year because our ground game was hindered from covid. This year is already looking way better if you see the turnout in places like Georgia, and the effects that the roe v Wade decision will likely have on overall Dem motivations.

 

brooklynite

(96,882 posts)
13. The Republicans map is a ,eamingless reference point.
Sat May 21, 2022, 12:07 PM
May 2022

It would never have been passed. Tha Court of Appeals and the legislature is heavily Democratic.

ColinC

(11,098 posts)
17. That is only a 4 year old reality
Sat May 21, 2022, 01:43 PM
May 2022

Republicans held the state Senate until 2018. It could always go back in a bad year. If that bad year is 2030, that point is no longer meaningless.

 

brooklynite

(96,882 posts)
24. We're not talking about 2030; we're talking about now...
Sat May 21, 2022, 11:58 PM
May 2022

…when the Democrats need every House seat they can win.

ColinC

(11,098 posts)
25. And the reality is that they will still win every house seat they can
Sun May 22, 2022, 12:05 AM
May 2022

It will just be harder than one had hoped due to a fair ny map.

 

brooklynite

(96,882 posts)
27. IAnd I will have to waste money on NY seats...
Sun May 22, 2022, 01:33 AM
May 2022

That I could have spent trying to win elsewhere.

I’ll be happy to live with a “fair” map when all the otherStates do.

ColinC

(11,098 posts)
28. Agreed
Sun May 22, 2022, 02:08 AM
May 2022

I would prefer the unfair map in ny due to the overall situation, but I am still somewhat pleased with the overall fact that more seats went the direction of Democrats than to Republicans with redistricting (according to the 538 estimate: of course this simply means that competitive seats held by Dems are more democratic). We shall see 🤷‍♀️

ColinC

(11,098 posts)
7. And if we have a good year, there are still some pick up opportunities that can
Sat May 21, 2022, 11:38 AM
May 2022

Bring it to the 23d 3r reality that the gerrymandering was trying to get at.

RKP5637

(67,112 posts)
4. IMO there should be no such thing as gerrymandering. Districts are cast by city, town, etc. and
Sat May 21, 2022, 11:33 AM
May 2022

that's it. Also, IMO, the damn Electoral College should be dumped!

FakeNoose

(41,540 posts)
8. Chump caused this when he intentionally messed up the 2020 census
Sat May 21, 2022, 11:48 AM
May 2022

Let's not kid ourselves, this was completely intentional. Chump did it all when he failed to administer/manage the Census during Covid times and then he turned his back on all of it. He flipped the bird at all the American voters, especially in the populated eastern states. But I'll wager he doesn't care much about the western states either.

Not enough census workers were hired, and the door-to-door canvassing that was done in previous decades had to be vastly curtailed or else completely dropped. Numbers have been undercounted in most areas of the eastern seaboard, especially the urban areas. That means we'll all be under-represented in Congress and that's just fine with Chump.

Is there any way we can impeach Chump a THIRD time? I think he deserves it.

former9thward

(33,424 posts)
26. The Census Bureau said just the opposite occurred.
Sun May 22, 2022, 12:21 AM
May 2022

They over counted in New York. They gave it 695,000 more people that actually live there. An accurate count would have cost NY yet another House seat.

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2022/pes-2020-undercount-overcount-by-state.html

Celerity

(54,333 posts)
23. Look at the judge! We got fucked hard (and we DOMINATE NY, how the hell did he get the map case??)
Sat May 21, 2022, 02:24 PM
May 2022
https://ballotpedia.org/Patrick_McAllister

Patrick McAllister is a judge for the Steuben County Surrogate's Court in New York. McAllister won the seat in the general election on November 7, 2017. He filed with the Republican, Conservative, and Independence parties.


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