Lithuania has called for a naval coalition "of the willing" to lift the Russian Black Sea blockade

[yaesu]

Last edited Mon May 23, 2022, 10:40 AM - Edit history (1)

The Lithuanian foreign minister, Gabrielius Landsbergis, proposed the plan during talks with the UK foreign secretary, Liz Truss, on Monday in London.

“Time is very very short. We are closing in on a new harvest and there is no other practical way of exporting the grain except through the Black Sea port of Odesa,” he told the Guardian.

Landsbergis proposed that a naval escort operation – not run by Nato – could protect the grain ships as they headed through the Black Sea and past Russian warships. He suggested that, apart from Britain, countries that were affected by the potential loss of grain such as Egypt could provide the necessary protection.

In this endeavour military ships or planes or both would be used to ensure that the grain supplies can leave Odesa safely and reach the Bosphorus without Russian interference. We would need a coalition of the willing – countries with significant naval power to protect the shipping lanes, and countries that are affected by this.

guardian live feed

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[mopinko]

1. i've been saying this for a while.

i get it's an escalation, but they just cant be allowed to reign free in international waters.

[roamer65]

2. I support it.

It would be Putler’s choice to attack it.

If he does, then the repercussions are all on him.

[hlthe2b]

3. We MUST support it.

[Quakerfriend]

4. The Ukrainian guy who manages the shipping traffic

said that the main problem at present is that the sea is mined and because of this the insurance companies are refusing to insure the ships that transport grain etc.

[Tomconroy]

5. Should already have been done. NATO convoys

authorized to fire on any russian ship that comes near (meaning 80 miles or so).

[muriel_volestrangler]

6. Up to Turkey to allow warships through the Bosphorus

His plan, under gestation for weeks, would require demining parts of the Black Sea to ensure safe passage, as well as the agreement of Turkey, which guards the entrance to the Black Sea.

“This would be a non-military humanitarian mission and is not comparable with a no-fly zone,” he said. “In this endeavour military ships or planes or both would be used to ensure that the grain supplies can leave Odesa safely and reach the Bosphorus without Russian interference. We would need a coalition of the willing – countries with significant naval power to protect the shipping lanes, and countries that are affected by this”.
...
Turkey, Landsbergis acknowledged, had its doubts about the escalation potential inherent in his scheme. However, he pointed out that as a major importer of grain, Turkey had a self-interest in the naval lanes being opened up if Russia would not voluntarily lift the blockade.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/23/lithuania-calls-for-joint-effort-on-russia-black-sea-blockade

At the start of the war:

Kyiv piles pressure on Ankara to close straits to Russia’s warships

The convention defines Turkish control of the straits as well as setting limits on the size, tonnage and duration of warships that can cross the straits, although warships belonging to countries bordering the Black Sea are normally able to pass unrestricted.

Foreign minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu on Friday laid out Turkey’s position regarding the closure of the straits to the daily newspaper Hürriyet, stating that officials are discussing whether the conflict meets the definition of a war under the Montreux convention.

If officials decide that the definition has been met, this allows them to block warships from both Ukraine and Russia from passing through the straits, although the move is likely to be far more significant for the Russian side.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/26/kyiv-piles-pressure-on-ankara-to-close-straits-to-russia-warships-ukraine

I don't think Turkey will go for this.

[sir pball]

8. And what exactly would Turkey do if we told them to piss in their hat and sailed through anyway?

Yes yes, treaties and obligations. Those seem to be worth about the paper they're signed on these days, so all that aside…

If the US Navy said "We're going to be taking several Block III Burkes and a Seawolf and escorting grain shipments out of the Black Sea, with a carrier or two parked in the Med for air coverage and if you don't like it go fuck yourself", what could Turkey meaningfully do? Stop them by force?

America's obscene military budget is obscene, but I can cheerfully admit a huge stick can be a handy tool at times.

[muriel_volestrangler]

9. That would be a fast way to end NATO

Break the treaty you've signed, send your warships into Turkey's territorial waters, give Russia a huge propaganda coup, and bring your ships within range of Turkey's land artillery, when you've just said "you are powerless". Yeah, brilliant idea, Clausewitz.

[TheRealNorth]

11. Turkey could mine the Dardenelles too.

[sir pball]

12. As I said, for the sake of argument treaties are now just pieces of paper.

Russia guaranteed Ukraine's free sovereignty, and we guaranteed Ukraine's security. How well did that work out?

In a more practical sense, Turkey doesn't seem to want to play nice with NATO, so why should NATO play nice with them? IIRC a member can be expelled by unanimous vote, and they're currently the only vote against the Nordic states joining. Just sayin'…

[muriel_volestrangler]

13. Yes, NATO is indeed "just a piece of paper", theoretically

so if you want to end it, you've hit upon a good way of doing it. But it is a crass way of doing it - break one international treaty (about the Bosphorus) so that you can break up another (NATO), and in doing so, put your ships at extreme risk. Are you contemplating invading Turkey too? Or just shelling it until your ships can get through? The ghost of Winston Churchill wants to know.

[sarisataka]

7. Non-NATO would be a problem

Looking at the 10 most powerful navies, Russia comes in at 2 or 3, depending on source.

Of the others, China is unlikely to participate. Japan is number 4 but busy watching China, same for Taiwan at 10. South Korea is number 8 but keeps an eye to the North.

So that would leave India at number 7 to lead the effort. On the plus side, they have an aircraft carrier and some excellent destroyers. Historically however, they have had close ties to Russia so might decline to participate.

[Sgent]

10. The real issue is insurance

and mines. Russia has mined the ports and no cargo company will attempt it until its cleared (nor do I blame them). The best option is going to be trains to Poland/Baltic Sea or Romania/Turkey for now.

[relayerbob]

15. WAY insufficient capacity.

They are already trying to do this, and are only able to move about 10% of the grain that needs to be shipped. Although your points on mines and insurance are spot on

[lindysalsagal]

16. The world has to keep going around Russia until it becomes cooperative

Hope this works.

[FakeNoose]

17. They need robotic minesweepers and soon, because some Russian mines are floating away

(link) https://www.businessinsider.com/dangerous-naval-mines-used-in-russia-ukraine-war-floating-away-2022-4?inline-endstory-related-recommendations=



(Caption: A warning sign reading "Dangerous mines!" on a beach in Odesa, Ukraine, April 5, 2022. STR/NurPhoto via Getty Images)

Headline:
Some of the most dangerous weapons used in Russia's war on Ukraine are starting to float away

Some of the most dangerous weapons deployed in Russia's war on Ukraine are affecting the entire Black Sea region, as naval mines used in the conflict are drifting hundreds of miles away.

Ukraine and Russia share the Black Sea coast with Georgia and NATO members Romania, Bulgaria, and Turkey, which controls the straits that connect the sea to the Mediterranean and beyond.

Since the beginning of the war four mines have floated away from Ukrainian waters. One was found off of Romania's coast and three in Turkish waters. Stray mines can cause significant disruptions to maritime traffic in the region.

- more at link -

[NCjack]

18. Perhaps truck and railroad alternatives should be prepared for delivering the grain

to the Baltic Sea, the North Sea, and the Mediterranean Sea ports.