Betfair now has Obama with a 70% chance of winning

[Quixote1818]

Any thoughts on why a Brittish betting site would give Obama a better shot than Intrade? Intrade gives Obama just under a 64% chance.



http://www.predictwise.com/politics/2012presidentindividual

[Loudly]

1. Intrade is Irish. And those percentages are really pretty close compared to

where American polling experts put the percentages.

[ThatPoetGuy]

2. InTrade doesn't set odds.

(I think) the numbers on InTrade represent how much money people are actually betting. But the way it is right now, at basically 2 to 1 on Obama, a dollar bet on Romney would pay off with two dollars if Romney wins, while a dollar bet on Obama would pay off with fifty cents when Obama wins. So the numbers are likely to level off after a while.

I think this is how InTrade works. I'd appreciate being corrected if I'm wrong.

[JenniferJuniper]

3. Nate Silver is up to 77% for Obama

as of about an hour ago.