"Top Gun: Maverick" is not a comic book movie, not a remake, not end-to-end CGI (and the little bit of CGI in it is really well-done) and not a Bible movie. It's also a good, fun movie. People REALLY wanted to see this film.
I'm going out on a limb here, but the movies I think will do well this summer are:
Jurassic World Dominion: Jurassic movies always do well, and this one has Sam Neill, Laura Dern and Jeff Goldblum in it. This one should just kick ass at the box office. It's probably also the last Jurassic film they'll ever make because now that the dinosaurs are at large there's not a hell of a lot you can do with the concept, so people will be like "I have got to go to this!"
Minions: The Rise of Gru: Despicable Me is sort of a guilty pleasure, largely because of the Minions.
Paws of Fury: This looks cute. It's an animation with animals as martial artists. The sensai is voiced by Samuel L. Jackson. You could make a movie of Samuel L. Jackson reading the phone book and pull in ten times budget, so I think this will do exceptionally well. I do have to wonder: how many takes did the esteemed Mr. Jackson have to do because the word "motherfucker" is not appropriate in a cartoon?
Movies I would LIKE to see do well...
Nope: This seems to be a ghost story set on a horse ranch owned by a Black family. I'll see it in New York in July, but I suspect the ownership of the ranch will cause the Hard Right to declare it "woke" and avoid it in droves.
Lightyear: If the actual film is half as good as the trailer, this will be a smash. This is sort of a retcon in that it tells the story of the real astronaut who inspired the Buzz Lightyear doll from Toy Story. I didn't see any of the Toy Story films but I plan to go to this. The reason this is here instead of in the "guaranteed to make bank" column is it's from Disney, the company at the top of the current MAGAt shit list.
Movies that will do well whether I want them to or not:
Thor: Love and Thunder: It's an MCU flick that looks decent. The kids LOVE them some MCU, so this should do okay.
DC League of Super-Pets: It has Batman. It has dogs. Young children will love it.
Questionable:
The Bob's Burgers Movie: Bob's Burgers is a really popular show, and the reviewers say this is a really cute movie. However, it's got a really big problem: it opened on the same weekend as Top Gun: Maverick. They're going to make their money on this property in streaming and Blu-Ray sales.
Elvis: This is from Baz Luhrmann, who makes REALLY pretty movies. It has Tom Hanks as Colonel Tom Parker, and Austin Butler sings Elvis songs well. But...it's about Elvis, who very few people under the age of 60 listen to. I think this one will go the way of the excellent West Side Story remake: not much box office, lots of home video.
Samaritan: This one comes down to whether Sylvester Stallone can still pull off an action flick.
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