'We're playing with fire': US Covid cases may be 30 times higher than reported

[babylonsister]

Coronavirus
‘We’re playing with fire’: US Covid cases may be 30 times higher than reported
Severe undercounting undermines our efforts to ‘understand and get ahead of the virus’, researcher says after New York survey
Melody Schreiber
Thu 2 Jun 2022 02.00 EDT
Last modified on Thu 2 Jun 2022 02.01 EDT


The United States is now in its fourth-biggest Covid surge, according to official case counts – but experts believe the actual current rate is much higher.

America is averaging about 94,000 new cases every day, and hospitalizations have been ticking upward since April, though they remain much lower than previous peaks.

But Covid cases could be undercounted by a factor of 30, an early survey of the surge in New York City indicates. “It would appear official case counts are under-estimating the true burden of infection by about 30-fold, which is a huge surprise,” said Denis Nash, an author of the study and a distinguished professor of epidemiology at the City University of New York School of Public Health.

About one in five – 22% – of adult New Yorkers likely had Covid between 23 April and 8 May, according to the preprint study, which has not been peer-reviewed or published. That would mean 1.5 million adults in the city had Covid in a single two-week period – far higher than official counts during that time.

While the study focused on New York, these findings may be true throughout the rest of the country, Nash said. In fact, New Yorkers likely have better access to testing than most of the country, which means undercounting could be even worse elsewhere.

more...

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/01/us-covid-surge-cases-rate

[no_hypocrisy]

1. I would have expected this from Trump.

Why isn’t Faucci saying anything?

[2naSalit]

5. Probably because...

Too many tune him out at this point. And the guy's 81 or 82, he deserves some relief from being the prime target in this pandemic, he has served us well in the darkest times, those who are open to this info will accept it from other credible sources.

[Hugin]

10. I don't know if he's not saying anything...

Or if what he’s saying isn’t being reported.

[2naSalit]

11. Good point.

[Mariana]

13. Is it acceptable to you if another member of the White House Covid Response Team says it?

Cases of COVID-19 are — yet again — on the rise. The U.S. is seeing an average of more than 100,000 reported new cases across the country every day. That's nearly double the rate a month ago and four times higher than this time last year.

And the real number of cases is likely much higher than that, according to health officials. Because many people now rely on at-home tests, "we're clearly undercounting infections," White House COVID-19 Response Coordinator Dr. Ashish Jha told reporters at the most recent COVID press briefing. Hospitalizations are trending upwards too, though only gradually still in most places.

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2022/05/27/1101639492/the-real-covid-surge-is-much-bigger-than-it-looks-but-dont-panic

[exboyfil]

2. I caught it for the first time two plus weeks ago

from work (no one wears a mask). My wife and daughter then caught it from me.

Last night I took my mom to the hospital (she just moved up here and is in a Senior's apartment). She has it too. The hospital said it is starting to spike. We got right in to a triage room, but they were stacked up later. I had stayed away from my mom for 10 days after first symptoms so I hope I didn't give it to her. Work has no problem welcoming me back so I thought I was safe.

[KarenS]

3. People just want to be done with this pandemic.

It doesn't make it done. I read somewhere that pandemics go this way,,,, ppl just get tired of doing what it takes.

I just don't want to get sick. So we are not traveling, eating in restaurants, going to gatherings large or small, playing cards or games with other couples,,,,

on edit: we are retired so we don't 'have to go' anywhere. We are still having groceries delivered or we pick them up.

[Hugin]

4. The YOYO wave is in full swing...

To be followed by the FAFO wave in the Fall.

Neither will be widely reported on. Seems pretty normal to me.

[KarenS]

7. had to look those up,,,,

and yes.

[Hugin]

12. My pleasure...

[mn9driver]

6. I've got it now.

So far, wife and kids do not have it. I’m sleeping and living in the basement. Luckily that’s where the tv is.

[2naSalit]

8. Pandemics of this type...

Airborne/respiratory, tend to run for about five years before they become rather benign, vaccine or not.

People don't seem to understand their safety options so it goes on until it fizzles out. Hope we don't see another one soon.

[Johnny2X2X]

9. If this is true, the death rate is falling quickly

We're at 200 deaths a day now, if we're really at 2.5 Million cases a day in the US, this means Covid is much much less dangerous to get than the flu. This would make it 12 times less deadly than the regular flu. I doubt that is true yet.

Getting some accurate data on death rate is what we should be looking for. With vaccinations and previous infections strengthening immune systems, and much better ways to treat it, perhaps we've just reduced the severity so much it is no longer a real threat. What this means in the long run is anyone's guess, but I think we need to see those numbers.

[Mariana]

14. "Getting some accurate data on death rate is what we should be looking for."

Without an accurate number of cases, that is impossible. This story is very thin on actual facts, it is full of, "may be" and "could be" and "it would appear" and so on.

[Johnny2X2X]

15. Agree

It's a story seeming to try to stoke concern.

We need stronger fact based stories, people are using these stories to drive their behavior around Covid. Let's get accurate data and make smart decisions based on it. This article isn't helping.

[greenjar_01]

18. Yes, I agree

The biggest surprise of the April-May mini-surge was the non-surge in deaths. Not as a trailing indicator or anything. Interesting.

[BumRushDaShow]

22. It's not so much the death rate is "falling"

it's that the time between any serious illnesses and death has been extended when compared to previous waves due to available treatments (and the vaccinations/boosts).

However, the latest demographic data has shown that Omicron hit the 75+ (which wasn't the case with Delta and the suggestion was waning immunity).

From a WaPo article that went into that increasing incidence of approaching parity between the vaccinated and unvaccinated - https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2022/04/29/covid-deaths-unvaccinated-boosters/ t

At this point, it's all going to be variant-dependent.

[Johnny2X2X]

23. Last chart is the most important

Boosted are 17 times less likely to die than totally unvaccinated. Fully vaxxed are 8.5 times less likely to die than unvaccinated.

GET BOOSTED!

[Yonnie3]

16. I regularly review the data provided by the Virginia Hospital & Healthcare Association

They provide data regarding COVID hospitalizations at https://www.vhha.com/communications/virginia-hospital-covid-19-data-dashboard/

What they provide is number of COVID hospitalizations where COVID is the chief complaint, number in the ICU, and number on vents.

We are definitely on an upswing in cases, but the data looks different. Last fall about 25% of the cases were in the ICU but now it is under 15%. The vented patients were around 15% and now around 5%

I suspect that there are a variety of factors in play causing this difference. Vaccinations, better treatment regimes, and different variants of the virus.

The Virginia Department of Health's data is lagging and regularly revised, particularly the death numbers. It is poor enough that I don't feel comfortable making any guesses how we are doing. Anecdotally, I know three people who have had positive home tests and the health department informed them that they couldn't report their cases unless they were PCR tests. These folks were advised to stay home. They were not advised to go out to seek a PCR test.

Virginia is at a seven day average 18% positive PCR tests up from 3.3 in March per VDH's website. From a limited sampling. This is concerning.

[greenjar_01]

17. But there was no massive increase in deaths?

And even hospitalization increases were modest?

[Johnny2X2X]

19. Appears to be the case

The anti virals are a game changer, and vaccination and previous infections are providing protection against severe disease.

I am not sure how immunity works entirely, maybe someone in the know can chime in. But I wonder if exposure to Covid where you don't get Covid is not only a sign of your immunity working, but also a sign that your immune system is getting stronger. If you're exposed and your body fights off even a mild infection, doesn't that mean you're gaining strength in your immune system for the next time you encounter it?

We're at 200 Covid deaths a day in the US right now, that's less than the daily total of a normal flu season.

[moonshinegnomie]

20. looking at texas numbers

7 day average deaths 5. in jan 2021 it was 471
hospitalized 1144. record was 14218 in jan 2021

[Lonestarblue]

21. Two friends, fully vaccinated, have Covid now.

One has been quite ill, the other less so. They both took home tests, and one showed negative. He was not feeling well and went in for a PCR test—positive. We won’t be finished with this pandemic for quite some time. I continue masking and rarely eating out.