Two words explain why Trump won't run in 2024

[brooklynite]

The Hill

Trump’s repudiation in Georgia has Republicans speculating about his declining kingmaking powers, openly defying him as he loses his “vice-like grip on the party” and potentially endangering his frontrunner status. So, circling back to the most-asked question, my new answer is “Trump won’t run in 2024” — based on personality traits rooted in the words “fear” and “fight.”

We begin with “fear,” indirectly drilled into young Donald Trump’s psyche by Fred, his authoritarian father, who demanded that his son always win and show strength but never weakness. Fred taught Donald that he could lie or twist the truth but never back down. Consequently, Trump developed an unnatural fear of losing or being called “a loser.”

Those grueling family dynamics were chronicled in Mary Trump’s book “Too Much and Never Enough,” subtitled “How my family created the world’s most dangerous man.” Donald Trump’s niece is a Ph.D. clinical psychologist whose best-seller was published in July 2020. Then, during a television appearance on Dec. 3, 2020, Mary explained, “It’s ‘impossible’ for Trump ‘to believe that he lost’ the election.”

That inability is why Trump can’t let go of 2020 and will tease a 2024 run for as long as possible. But, ultimately, Trump’s fear of losing is likely stronger than his willingness to take the risk. Moreover, during a second reelection campaign, the former president would be hard-pressed to use the same predictive excuse first heralded in a May 25, 2020, Politico headline: “Trump sees a ‘rigged election’ ahead. Democrats see a constitutional crisis in the making.”

[Johnny2X2X]

1. 2022 is the key

If Trump thinks the GOP stole enough seats in 2022 to overturn any fair election in 2024, he'll run.

[Hugin]

5. Bingo.

If they win enough he may not even have to run.

Instead and I emphasize this, he believes he will be installed. Because, “They owe him.”

[SmartJellyfish]

2. I can think of two other words,

"Federal Prisoner".

[riversedge]

3. We can always hope.

[LakeArenal]

18. That was my thought.

[dutch777]

19. I like those words!

[msfiddlestix]

27. never going to happen

I'm pretty sure Politico's pov is an inadequate explanation for this sociopath's mo and intentions. By that I mean to suggest, don't take it to the bank you'll be robbed before you can make a deposit.

false hope and fantasy is not going to get us through, imo.

[peppertree]

4. Plus his health

When talk first started up about Trump's eventual "revenge" run in '24, the first thought that came to mind was Philadelphia's Frank Rizzo.

M any will recall that Rizzo, originally a conservative Democrat (and a textbook thug), was denied his chance to tamper with the city charter - and thus a third term - back in '80.

He became a Repug (of course), and tried going back for the mayor's seat a few times over the next decade.

Finally, in '91, it looked as though he might clinch it - when, just weeks after announcing, he died of a massive heart attack during one of Philly's stultifyingly hot and humid summer days.

It dawned on me that Cheeto will probably end up the same way.

[2naSalit]

7. If all else fails...

I could go for that.

[peppertree]

13. Seeing all those Repugs start throwing fits over how "Trump was poisoned!!" ALONE would be worth it

[rampartc]

22. "hillary had him epsteined"

so he could not break up her baby eating cull!"

[peppertree]

23. The more outlandish the better

It's what Republicans have in lieu of imagination any more.

[sop]

8. I believe Trump will suffer a massive stroke on stage during one of his rallies if he runs again.

I have nothing to go on, but one can always hope.

[Beetwasher.]

10. I'd Pay A Dollar to See That

n/t

[milestogo]

11. KFC will save us from him.

[peppertree]

12. Thread winnah!

Bigly.

[phylny]

15. Now this

made me laugh out loud!

[Buns_of_Fire]

30. Right in the middle of his latest "dance".

That way, no one would dare come near him, figuring he was just trying out some new moves.

[mercuryblues]

35. He might bring back break dancing.

[dutch777]

20. We can hope.

[peppertree]

21. Everyone's life has a certain pattern to it - Cheeto's is definitely 'pride going before the fall'

A series of hurrahs, followed by a lurid and highly public downfall.

This '24 "grudge" run of his, I suspect, will be his last such turn on the merry-go-round.

[Aristus]

33. It's "Pride goeth before destruction, and a haughty spirit before a fall."

Still applies perfectly, though.

[Captain Zero]

29. Summer heat is coming in FLA. Maybe MaraLoco AC breaks down.

Keep Hope Alive.

[gab13by13]

6. "The Hill" again,

I don't take much stock in what Myra Adams has to say. She worked on Shrub's and McCain's campaigns.

I do listen to David Plouffe and he gave good reasons why he believes Trump won't run.

[Girard442]

9. If Trump can stand up and breathe, he's running.

Maybe even if he can't.

[Cosmocat]

37. Correct - why do people keep doing this $hit

nm

[rurallib]

14. I have a question maybe someone can answer

Since he is not as yet a declared candidate, does he get to keep the money he is raising?

Just crossed my mind the other day and it has been bugging me.
What a great way to have people just give you money.

[CrispyQ]

17. I read that's why he hasn't declared, cuz once he does, campaign finance laws kick in.

But I'm not an expert & I don't recall where I read that. Probably here on DU.

[CrispyQ]

16. I'd like him six feet under, just to make sure. -nt

[rampartc]

26. with a wooden stake through his heart

otherwise his head in a bottle will be president forever.

[ForgedCrank]

24. I have two better words to describe why.

1. Jack
2. Ass

[RainCaster]

28. I was thinking "tiny dick"

[madinmaryland]

46. I think it is actually "mushroom dick".

[andym]

25. Flawed analysis: Trump denies reality time and again

as he did with his election loss or Covid. So by definition he never loses, so fear of losing plays no direct role here-- it just makes him deny reality. If he does in fact lose, he just claims he was cheated. He stated that he was cheated in 2016 (when he won), 2020, and surely again in 2024 no matter the outcome. Since he craves attention above all, running is his obvious choice. Not only that but his party has a majority believing that Trump has been cheated, and favors Trump, which should give him the nomination. Also, from a practical point of view he can't be prosecuted for his potential crimes if he somehow achieves the White House.

Even the author of the Hill article covers his bases with:
"To recap: Trump won’t run because he fears losing and does not want to fight for the nomination. But here is why I could be wrong:
...
I asked Mark McKinnon, the co-host of Showtime’s “The Circus” and the last presidential strategist to win the reelection of a Republican president:
“Trump will never concede the stage or the spotlight to anyone else unless he’s in prison or a hospital. He’s not licking his wounds, he’s licking his chops. Every defeat is someone else’s fault. Every victory is his alone. The notion that he would simply exit stage left because of some political reality, self-reflection, or awareness flies in the face of everything we’ve learned about him.”"

[Chainfire]

32. Being a convicted felon, or a Federal prisoner would not necessarily prevent him from running.

But, as I understand, being convicted of Sedition or Treason would prevent him from holding office. Trump is however at that delicate age where obese old men can just croak without warning. That would prevent him from running. That would be my first choice, my second choice would be that he ran and failed to gain the nomination. That would put a crack in the Republican armor that we could walk through backwards. For that reason, if he is able to run, the Republicans will probably run him. Republicans can not grow or maintain their hold on power if they lose their fanatic right base.

What is amazing to me is that we even discuss the probability of a pathological liar, con-man and traitor's odds of being the Republican nominee for the Presidency. This discussion alone indicates what danger our Democracy is in. In a previous America, the Republicans would openly reject the possibility of such a personality being their nominee. Even worse than that is the possibility that he could both win the nomination and the election.

[andym]

38. The GOP has been gaslit for too long by Limbaugh, Fox News and fellow travelers

Republicans are ready made for a nationalistic leader like Trump or the various Trump wannabees waiting in the wings Their go-to issues are the culture wars, which really do work for the GOP and their uncritical acceptance of whatever they are told (no matter how preposterous) by master propagandists means that American democratic government is at grave risk. Playing on selfishness, traditionalism that emphasizes the victimization of Republicans by liberals, and nationalism/patriotism creates a heady witches brew eating away at the enlightenment-based foundations of the republic.

[Chainfire]

40. That is certainly a valid point. We know the problem.

Yet, after 30 years, we have not found effective counter-measures. Why is that?

What is wrong with Americans that so many of us are willing to accept an outrageous and illogical falsehood rather than a simple truth?

Progressives want to play within the rules, while our "competitors" are allowed to change the rules, to suit themselves, as the game proceeds. We need to take the gloves off.

[andym]

41. At a minimum their use of lies and propaganda have to be made as visible as possible to as many

as possible. It's not just a Democrat vs Republican thing, it's really Republicans vs almost everybody else-- even some conservatives, like Liz Cheney, who do not advocate Democratic policy see this.

[Novara]

39. He's too egotistical not to run

Plus, I've got two words why he WILL run: executive privilege.

The only way he doesn't get prosecuted for his many, many crimes is if the office shields him. That alone will make him run even if he knows there isn't a chance in hell. Besides, the republicans are rigging voting in this country; he can't lose.

He has no fear of losing. He's been handed everything - even Russia handed him 2016. So he never loses. If someone else comes out ahead, he says they cheated because in his mind there's no way he ever loses anything.

The only way he doesn't run is if he's dead.

Oh please, oh please.

[andym]

42. You are correct: ego + executive privilege means he is running unless dead or incapacitated. nt.

[Novara]

43. yep

In his thinking he has to run and win, in order to save his ass. And thanks to the republicans - and Manchin and Sinema - he will win, jeebus help us.

[Fiendish Thingy]

31. If he's alive, and not incarcerated, he's running.

Now, if he’s been indicted, pending trial, the GOP party elite might, I emphasize, might, abandon him for DeSantis.

Trump’s ego won’t allow him to sit out the election- becoming president again is the only way he can avoid consequences for the crimes of his first term, and he can grift more money as president than as former president.

[Chainfire]

34. Well, you can drop one of your options; he will not be incarcerated.

Nor will he be indicted. If Trump is willing and available, and the Republicans run DeSantis, they would split the party so badly that they couldn't win at all. The other point is that it would be safer for our Democracy to have Trump in the White House than DeSantis! DeSantis is just as dangerous and he is not a clown...

[sarisataka]

36. .

[Chainfire]

44. Trump is running for President today!

He will only stop running for President if he is stopped by means beyond his control.

[BlackSkimmer]

45. I sure hope you're right.

That article makes a lot of sense.