Democrats Misunderstand the Suburban Vote

[Celerity]

And Why It’s Not Likely to Save Them in 2022



https://theliberalpatriot.substack.com/p/democrats-misunderstand-the-suburban

The Democrats have a plan…sort of. In the face of a dreadful political environment dominated by voters’ negative judgment on Democrats’ economic stewardship and further defined by strong disapproval of Democrats’ approach on issues like crime and immigration, Democrats propose to flip the script by focusing their message on abortion and guns. Here they feel they are on stronger ground and can win the all-important battle for the suburbs. The idea seems to be that the suburbs are full of liberal, highly-educated voters who are likely to be particularly moved by these issues and turn out against the Republicans. That may be true in some limited areas at the margins but it seems highly unlikely to work in the suburbs writ large for a very simple reason: actually-existing suburban voters are quite different from this caricature.

Start with who actually lives in the suburbs. Contrary to popular perception, less than a third of the suburban vote nationwide is made up of college-educated whites, the presumed locus of appeal for the suburban abortion/guns/very liberal on social issues vote. In fact, about three-fifths of suburban white voters are working class (noncollege). It is widely misunderstood how vital these voters were to Biden’s victory in 2020. While suburban white college voters shifted around 10 margin points toward Biden, suburban white working class voters also had a solid 5 point pro-Democratic shift. Because of this group’s larger size, their shift toward Biden contributed almost as much to the Democrats’ improved margin over Trump in 2020 as suburban white college voters.

And just how liberal are these college-educated voters anyway? Overall, according to Gallup, just 30 percent of adults with a four year degree only describe themselves as liberal and 36 percent of those with some postgraduate education (the less numerous group) do so. Putting this together with the data about suburban demographics, this implies that perhaps one-ninth (a third of a third) of suburban voters are white college-educated liberals. Perhaps the figure is a bit higher but I doubt that it’s much higher.

Looking at some states that will have high profile races, we see a similar story. In Pennsylvania, where the Democrats are seeking to wrest a Senate seat from the Republicans, suburban voters are either around urban cores in large metro areas (Philly, Pittsburgh, Allentown, Harrisburg, Scranton) or in small metro areas (Erie, Reading, Lancaster, York, etc). According to analysis by William Frey of Brookings, the former areas are 58 percent white noncollege to 29 percent white college, while the latter areas are 64 percent white working class to 23 percent white college. In Wisconsin, another state where Democrats are seeking to capture a Republican-held Senate seat to balance possible losses by Democratic incumbents, the situation is no different. Suburbs around Milwaukee and Madison are 53 percent white working class to 37 percent white college while Wisconsin’s smaller metro areas (Oshkosh, Green Bay, Appleton, etc) are 65 percent white noncollege to 25 percent white college.

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[Fiendish Thingy]

1. Flawed analysis

Polls that ask voters how they “describe themselves” are inherently flawed, since the Republicans, with the complicity of the media, have successfully branded the term “liberal” as an epithet that many would be ashamed to accept to describe themselves.

Instead of asking how voters describe themselves, which would artificially skew to the right, polls should ask voters about specific issues; when they do, they consistently show that a majority of Americans support so-called “liberal” policies like reproductive rights, marriage equality, gun control, universal healthcare higher taxes on the wealthy and higher minimum wage.

Polls that focus on how suburban white middle class voter in swing states identify themselves would guide campaigns to a Center-right campaign strategy, whereas polls that focus on the policies that swing state voters of all ages and races actually support, would guide a campaign in a clear liberal direction.

IMO, resources would be better spent on motivating the untapped youth vote to create a landslide victory, rather than wasting time and money trying to flip a handful of economically anxious suburban white voters for a narrow win.

[Xoan]

2. Let's just give up. OK?

[Celerity]

3. strange takeaway