General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsThe Battle for Severodonetsk
The Institute for the Study of War (not my favorite group) had some good news tonight. (They do keep on top of Russian social media and military bloggers). The Russians have been pushed out of most of Severodonetsk, thus making a fair number of arm chair generals look foolish. The fight continues, but the Russians are losing in close quarter urban combat. Still a long fight, but it's clear which side has the best generals:
Ukrainian forces continued to conduct limited and localized but successful counterattacks against Russian positions throughout Ukraine on June 5, including retaking large areas of Severodonetsk—the city in Luhansk Oblast the Kremlin has concentrated the majority of its forces on capturing. A Russian Telegram channel claimed that Ukrainian troops launched a counterattack north of Kharkiv City, indicating that Ukrainian forces continue to pressure Russian defensive lines near the Russian border.[1] Ukrainian forces are likely seeking to leverage the continued Russian focus on Severodonetsk to conduct counterattacks on other axes of advance. Even as Russian forces continue to pour equipment and troops into the Severodonetsk-Lysychansk area, Ukrainian forces have conducted a successful counterattack in Severodonetsk in the last 48 hours and pushed Russian troops back to the eastern outskirts of the city and out of southern settlements.[2] Ukrainian counteroffensive pressure will likely continue to draw the attention of Russian forces to Luhansk Oblast and therefore leave vulnerabilities in Russian defensive efforts in Kharkiv Oblast and along the Southern Axis. The ability of Ukrainian forces to successfully counterattack in Severodonetsk, the Kremlin’s current priority area of operations, further indicates the declining combat power of Russian forces in Ukraine.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates
= new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight:
NoneDon't highlight anything
5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
mucifer
(23,572 posts)
niyad
(113,589 posts)
Lovie777
(12,342 posts)Kinda reminds me of the tortoise and the hare.
empedocles
(15,751 posts)Response to Tomconroy (Original post)
empedocles This message was self-deleted by its author.
Beastly Boy
(9,482 posts)Hold your ground in Severodonetsk, while counter-attacking around Kharkiv all the way to Russia's border. These victories are more significant than they look.
Frankly, I didn't think they could pull it off, but they did!
As soon as the Russians run out of steam around Severodonetsk, which will probably happen by the end of next week, expect a series of counter-attacks around Kherson, with Ukraine gaining back some of its Black Sea territories.
malthaussen
(17,217 posts)... they're using client militia armed with bolt-action rifles on the front lines. That's not likely to end well.
-- Mal
Just A Box Of Rain
(5,104 posts)The resourcefulness of UKR fighters (and in this instance a significant number of UKR Foreign Legion fighters) is quite impressive.
This fight was won largely w/o the use of heavy weapons, rather they made use of brains and bravery.
Sláva Ukrayíni!
AllyCat
(16,233 posts)M$M only reports that Russia is making all the gains. Even BBC seems almost pro-Russia. I can’t even look anymore.
Just A Box Of Rain
(5,104 posts)Western artillery--although partially deployed now--is still working its way into the field.
RU forces have still had the advantage of range using their multiple rocket launch systems, but that gap is about to close as the US provides medium range rocket systems that outclass the Russian equipment in both range and accuracy. This will significantly shift the strategic advantage.
This is not to mention the ongoing resupply of anti-tank missiles like Javelins, NLAWs, and the high weight--but effective--Carl Gustaf M4s that wreak havoc on Russian tanks.
In addition UKR forces are getting resuppled with ever more sophisticated ground to air missiles. like the UK Starstreak systems. Just today UKR forces reportedly took down either an Su34 or Su35 jet fighter (the most advanced plane in Putin's arsenal).
Plus anti-ship missiles that threaten the Russian Black Sea fleet and specialized drones that can deliver anti-submarine torpedoes.
The western allience is delivering the goods the Ukrainians will need to defeat Putin's forces.
So keep your dauber up. Putin will be defeated not matter what ill-informed media outlets might suggest.
The Russian dictator badly miscalculated.
PortTack
(32,800 posts)Would successfully take SVRdonestk. The orcs are obviously not good at street fighting.
Slava Ukraine!
Tomconroy
(7,611 posts)only read this on ISW but I don't think they would publish unless they were sure of their sources.
PortTack
(32,800 posts)blue-wave
(4,365 posts)implementing this offensive. It's been reported the Russians are suffering huge losses in the Severodonetsk area.
Slava Ukraini!! Heroyam Slava!! Slava Na Viki!!
Lonestarblue
(10,095 posts)
KS Toronado
(17,352 posts)Said something like one man defending his homeland is worth 10 invaders.
Appears it's playing out in Ukraine.
...Russia...
sprinkleeninow
(20,267 posts)🕊🌻🕯💙🇺🇦💛🕯🌻🕊
OnlinePoker
(5,727 posts)There are less than 20km from the northern tip of the breakout to the Seversky Donets River. If they can close this, the Russians will have encircled a large portion of Ukraine's offensive strength and cut them off from resupply. Apparently, the river is running very shallow now so bridgehead crossings from the north (unlike the disastrous one the Russians tried a month ago) may be easy for the Russian to do. A lot of the Ukrainian International Legion is in Severodonetsk as well.
https://deepstatemap.live/en#10/48.7616/38.8133
PortTack
(32,800 posts)They Ukrainians are making good progress pushing towards Kherson.
to say nothing of the fact the orcs are terrible at river crossings!
Tomconroy
(7,611 posts)OnlinePoker
(5,727 posts)
Emrys
(7,278 posts)Death at a sniper's bullet or bombed into oblivion by artillery if they dare to visit the front lines, or dismissed in disgrace by Putin as scapegoats when everything goes pear-shaped.
Great career move.
WarGamer
(12,485 posts)latest: Kyiv ‘controls half of Severodontesk’
Latest updates June 5, 2022: Kyiv says it has retaken 50 percent of the eastern city as Ukraine’s military pushes Russian forces back.
denbot
(9,901 posts)Wash, rinse, repeat, grind the bastards down.
Slava Ukraini!
On edit I still screed up the name.
lamp_shade
(14,844 posts)Tomconroy
(7,611 posts)The NY Times is featuring the ISW report this morning. But DU read it first!
Raine
(30,541 posts)Just A Box Of Rain
(5,104 posts)that 90% Sieverdonetsk is completely free of RU forces.
In the remaining 10% of the territory around Sieverdonetsk, UKR forces have 70% control.
This is a dramatic reversal.
The source asks us to consider that this area is where Putin has had his greatest concentration of forces and that they have been reinforced with troops drawn from other areas over the past 3 days. And yet they were still defeated.
At the same time, there have been significant advances around Kharkiv.
North of Kharkiv UKR fighters have taken Dubnika, Tsupivka and they are now headed towards Makarove.
East of Kharkiv, UKR forces have reclaimed land from Khotimlia all the way down to down to Martove. And they now control the open land directly to the east. The rivers have been crossed and the Russians can no longer push UKR forces back.
The source credits a couple of key factors in the success [beyond the tactical brilliance of the move of laying a successful trap in Sieverdonetsk].
One is the arrival of freshly trained and fully rested troops from the home guard, who are bolstering experienced units who have been fighting smartly and bravely, despite their exhaustion.
The other factor is outside support, which has provided urgently needed supplies for UKR forces.
Things like proper safety vests, helmets, night vision, knee protection, good weapons, sufficient ammunition, shoulder-fired missiles, drones, and grenades. Gear that saves Ukrainian lives and that give them advantages over poorly equipped RU forces.
They plead with their friends in the west to maintain the vital support. It makes a huge difference.
There are now so many Ukrainian men and women who have volunteered to fight that UKR forces have lowered the maximum age of fighters to 45 and asked older fighters to return to their civilian jobs, to the disgruntlement of some older fighters who simply don't want to quit.
The newly trained soldiers who will soon be joining the fight will require proper equipment.
It is vital that the allied countries keep up our support.
Sláva Ukrayíni!
Just A Box Of Rain
(5,104 posts)Fresh reports indicate that the UK is going to provide UKR with M270 multiple launch rocket systems and will provide GPS-guided GMLRS rockets that can strike targets with precision out to 50 miles (80km).
These rocket launchers are mounted self-propelled tracked heavy-vehicles and fire the same rounds as the HIMARS launchers that the United States will be providing.
As these come into use, it will erase one of the remaining advantages that Russian forces currently enjoy. Hard to overestimate how import a role these will play.
Not only will the range be greater than rockets RU forces are employing, but these are accurate precision guided munitions that will strike where they are targeted.
Tomconroy
(7,611 posts)last night's optimistic report on Sievierodonetsk. It's difficult to figure out but a Russian counteroffensive may have taken place. The Kyiv Independent is a reliable source:
Link to tweet
There are other sources that indicate a fierce battle still rages in the city.
Link to tweet
Just A Box Of Rain
(5,104 posts)in the direction of Sloviansk, but they claim that RU forces have been repulsed.
This is the area of the most concentrated RU troop strength--irrespective of the "quality" of those troops--so active fighting in the areas is a certainty.
UKR forces are reinforced with fresh troops who are properly outfitted and motivated. A stark contrast with the invaders.
Tomconroy
(7,611 posts)you already saw. My Ukranians is a little rusty but I think this guy is translating from it:
Link to tweet
So maybe ISW was mostly right. The fog of war.
Just A Box Of Rain
(5,104 posts)Last edited Mon Jun 6, 2022, 01:17 PM - Edit history (1)
What ISW--which is doing an over-all commendable job in trying to keep a complex situation straight--seems to be unaware of (as it has not been announced or hit the Twitterverse) is that UKR forces have just been reinforced with fresh units from the home guard who are well armed and highly motivated.
In contrast, the dragooned fighters from the so-called Donetsk People's Republic (a "breakaway republic of Ukraine" ) who have been pressed into service are laughably equipped with bolt action rifles that were developed in the late nineteenth century, they have no body armor, at best old and ill fitting steel helmets, and they lack secure communications.
The Russians are using these forces as "cannon meat," and they are being decimated. They are demoralized, disorganized, and some reliable reports suggest they are going unpaid. Quite naturally, they are near mutiny and many are refusing to fight.
Tomconroy
(7,611 posts)And welcome to DU by the way.
Just A Box Of Rain
(5,104 posts)My Ukrainian is quite poor, but I'm beginning to the hang of reading the Cyrillic alphabet. That's a start.
I'm also getting very good at cooking Ukrainian cuisine, including some delicious homemade salo.
Yum!
Tomconroy
(7,611 posts)
Bucky
(54,084 posts)The Russian generals lying to Putin about how well the Russians are doing in eastern Ukraine are probably the ones keeping the Kremlin from deploying tactical nukes.
But when the truth of what's been going on finally washes over the Russian people, there's gonna be hell to pay.
BrightKnight
(3,567 posts)I doubt that the Ukrainian military was too upset that they tried.
Just A Box Of Rain
(5,104 posts)confirms that Ukrainian forces hold 80% what he calls the "totally shattered city" of Sievierdonetsk.
He also says that RU forces have 3 brigades headed towards Sievierdonetsk who are expected to join the fight tomorrow. The RU forces are under orders to take Sievierdonetsk at all costs.
UKR fighters have plans in place that I won't reveal, but they involve more traps and favorable artillery positions.
Tomconroy
(7,611 posts)what happens if that isn't met. Adios to another general I suppose.
Pres. Zelenskyy said he brought something with him when he visited the front line yesterday. I'm wondering.
Just A Box Of Rain
(5,104 posts)In the meantime, in the contested areas of Sievierodonetsk RU forces are engaging in what's called "intelligence by battle."
“Intelligence by battle” literally means that Putin's forces have no idea what is going on and--to figure it out--they first do some shelling and then throw "cannon meat" at the front lines to find out.
As their troops are slaughtered, they gather intelligence about where the UKR forces are positioned.
The Russian-speaking Ukrainians from the so-called "Donetsk People's Republic" are the top picks for Russians to sacrifice.
Nice, huh?
Just A Box Of Rain
(5,104 posts)are still in transit for Severodonetsk.
Highly-trained UKR sabotage/recon teams are harassing them and have reportedly sabotage the rail lines around Kursk and Belograd.
A big fight should resume soon. UKR forces promise that the Russian's are in for some surprises.
