COVID-19 cases are on the rise. Does it matter anymore?

[pstokely]

https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/3511241-covid-19-cases-are-on-the-rise-does-it-matter-anymore/

"In the Biden administration, health officials are still advising people to wear masks in areas the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention classifies as at “high” risk. But President Biden himself is talking about the virus far less than he did at the start of his administration, and is not making sustained calls for people to wear masks.

White House COVID-19 response coordinator Ashish Jha touted progress in defanging cases on Thursday.

“We see cases rising, nearly 100,000 cases a day, and yet we’re still seeing death numbers that are substantially, about 90 percent lower, than where they were when the president first took office,” he told reporters.

Some experts are pushing back on the deemphasis of case numbers, saying they still matter. "

[JI7]

1. Only if there are issues with Hospitals being able to handle cases

[dpibel]

4. No concern about new variants?

The more new cases, the more opportunities for mutation.

But it's just about hospital capacity?

You sure?

[Skittles]

5. yup

sad, isn't it?

[PortTack]

2. When the realization of long covid sets in ....it will matter

[JCMach1]

7. Having it myself, I could almost see it in QE2's eyes this weekend

And yeah my lung damage, heart damage, Type 2 Diabetes (from Covid) and Hidradenitis Suppurativa has almost rendered me disabled. That is if I could afford to be ...

[PortTack]

26. Geez I'm so so sorry..that is awful

It worries me..older had a long history of Lyme disease. I know it wouldn’t go well for me either

[progree]

3. I'm seeing a downturn and then a flattening in the NY Times data

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/covid-cases.html
Very helpful to click on the "Last 90 days" button

As for past 14 days (actually 7 days ending June 5 compared to 7 days ending May 22),

daily new cases are down 7%

Hospitalized up 16%

ICUs up 15%

Deaths down 14%

The hospitalized, ICU, and deaths all lag cases. The hospitalized and ICUs are reflecting the rise in cases we had since late March to about May 27 (speaking of 7 day averages). EDIT: corrected March 27 to May 27.

Deaths are, well, its just less fatal than in the past

[JCMach1]

8. I highly question current data without the free testing in-place

The only thing I take confidence in is the low hospitalization for the moment.

[PSPS]

6. Apparently not. We've fallen back into the denial stage.

Sure, you may not die or require hospitalization (although that protection is waning now especially with less that half the population having a booster,) but you're still susceptible to long covid which means years (or a lifetime) of debilitating illness.

But, hey! We have mid-terms coming up! Must mollify the MAGA!! And the cruise ships need passengers! And won't you PLEASE think of the hotels and restaurants! The tattoo parlors! Starbucks! TV/Radio stations have to sell ad slots!!1! And the virus needs more infections to promote more mutations to get the death rate up!!11!! Oh the humanity!!1!!1!

[Blues Heron]

9. Jha seems disconnected from the numbers - we are declining from a peak of 111K 5/24

It looks like we peaked in this wave at 111,000/day 7 day avg on May 24. Since then we have gone down not up (according to Worldometers). Of course that includes a three day holiday. But especially on the East coast, Covid is subsiding. June and July should see declines, bottoming out beginning of August, then another wave? who knows, but if so, the next wave will be peaking sometime in mid October if the pattern continues.

[Ferrets are Cool]

10. The majority of people seem to have decided that Covid is over.

There are very few people in my area still wearing masks. I am one of those few.

[hlthe2b]

11. Given how little we really know about long-COVID the answer is definitely YES. IT MATTERS!

[WhiskeyGrinder]

12. At least 20 percent of people who are infected with covid will end up with some kind of long covid.

This is a mass disabling event on the heels of a mass death event and leaders are acting like pretending the bridge isn't there means we'll never have to cross it.

[Johnny2X2X]

15. Vaccinated are 4 to 5 times less likely to get long Covid

And they're 4-5 times less likely to even get Covid.

So the best tool is still vaccines. Masks slow the spread too.

And long Covid is still a new thing being studied, is it more like long flu (Yes, some people suffer from flu symptoms for several months), or will it be longer lasting and more severe, we don't really know yet.

And cases are dropping, but with at home testing and no reporting, we can't really know, but we do know that deaths are at the lowest since the early weeks of the pandemic. 202 in the 7 day average, lowest since March 25th, 2020. So maybe with the vaccinated experiencing much milder Covid than the unvaccinated, and the new anti viral treatments, this has finally become mild enough to not affect life much anymore.

[iemanja]

17. True about home testing

As an anecdote, my brother's whole family had COVID, and they never went to the doctor.

[Johnny2X2X]

18. So that means Covid is even less deadly

If you've got a few times more cases than are being reported, and still are at 200 deaths a day, you're talking something that is literally less deadly than the normal flu now.

Say it's 3-1, so instead of 80K cases, it's 240K, 200 deaths a day is about a 0.08% mortality rate. Normal flu is 0.50 to 0.100%.

[Samrob]

13. Keep wearing your masks in public. That is all.

[Hugin]

14. +1

It's still recommended in all areas on the CDC website. Formerly where guidance was issued and followed, until it wasn't.

Also from the CDC website. COVID is now at least the third highest cause of death in all age groups per the data posted there.

[iemanja]

16. Yes, because human life matters.

[progree]

19. ERs reach record capacity as hospitals are inundated with patients (speaking of the Boston situation

The Boston Globe, June 1, 2022
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/ers-reach-record-capacity-as-hospitals-are-inundated-with-patients/ar-AAXY6W1?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=ee9e5b0d935f4d4682ecda52ac83215a

The tidal wave of illness comes just as COVID cases have become less of a burden for hospitals. Two-thirds of COVID patients currently in Massachusetts hospitals would have been there regardless of their infection because of other health issues. Though it has caused fewer cases of serious illness in recent weeks, COVID has complicated hospital operations. Patients with COVID still need to be isolated, and staff caring for them have to wear personal protective equipment, both of which eat up more time and resources.

==========================

‘Mild’ Omicron variant was highly lethal, study finds, Boston Globe, 5/28/22

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/mild-omicron-variant-was-highly-lethal-study-finds/ar-AAXOS9a?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=aeb9308665364475951dfcbb720b2968

From June 28 through December 5, 2021, when the Delta variant of the coronavirus was dominant, Massachusetts experienced 1,975 excess deaths.

From December 27, 2021, through February 20, 2022, when the Omicron variant was dominant, there were 2,294 excess deaths.

In other words, in a mere eight weeks of Omicron, Massachusetts experienced more excess deaths than in 23 weeks of Delta.

It's not just the lethality per infected person, but the number of people infected that matters.

[progree]

20. Vaccines offer little protection against long Covid, study finds (just 15% reduction), 5/30/22

Vaccines offer little protection against long Covid, study finds (just 15% reduction), 5/30/22
https://www.democraticunderground.com/100216748201

Vaccines Reduce Risk of Long Covid by Just 15 Percent, Study Finds, 6/1/22
https://www.democraticunderground.com/114228302

[progree]

21. In Minnesota - Unvaxxed relative to the vaxxed -- relative risk declining as variants evolve,

and booster effectiveness wanes -- get your 2nd booster!

Minnesota Public Radio, 5/6/22
https://www.mprnews.org/story/2022/05/06/covid19-in-mn-rising-caseloads-may-be-leveling-hospital-needs-stable



Those relative risk ratios don't make me feel "virtuallly immune" from hospitalization or death because I'm vaxxed and boosted. But I'm supposed to feel that way, according to the smartest people in the room.

[Iggo]

22. Phrasing.

Jeez.

[progree]

23. Covid fatalities: currently "only" 2.3 times the rate of traffic fatalities in the U.S. (at Omicron

death peak on February 2 it was 23 times the traffic fatality rate)

NHTSA projects that an estimated 42,915 people died in motor vehicle traffic crashes last year, (118/day average)
https://www.nhtsa.gov/press-releases/early-estimate-2021-traffic-fatalities

Covid deaths: New York Times 7 day average on June 5, 2022: 267/day

At the peak of the "mild" Omicron wave, 7 day average on February 2 : 2,669/day.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/covid-cases.html

As always, it's not just the mortality rate per infection, which is "very low" for "mild" Omicron, but it's also the number of people infected that matters.

Maybe with much more natural immunity in the population now than in December-January-February, we won't see any more death peaks like we saw in early February.

But then again, this thing keeps evolving. With twice the case rate, for example, we have twice the evolution happening. That's why some of us joyless miserable killjoys say the case rate matters too.

==========================

‘Mild’ Omicron variant was highly lethal, study finds, Boston Globe, 5/28/22
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/mild-omicron-variant-was-highly-lethal-study-finds/ar-AAXOS9a?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=aeb9308665364475951dfcbb720b2968

More killed during the "mild" Omicron wave, than the "severe" Delta wave in Massachusetts.

[liberal_mama]

24. Yeah, just let it rip and create a lot of new variants! With the CDC stating that 1 in 5 will get

other serious health issues after a Covid infection, it makes no sense to just let Covid keep spreading. As a immune compromised person with a child who has cancer, I am so disgusted. People should be wearing masks to protect the vulnerable and keep the spread of Covid lower. I will never understand why some people think wearing a mask is such a big inconvenience. If I wasn't immune compromised, I would still wear a mask because I care about my fellow humans.

[gldstwmn]

25. Just wait until fall after a summer of letting it spread and new variants developing.

There is a push to get things back to normal economically by having everyone go to offices and get together socially but in the process we are shooting ourselves in the foot.

[senseandsensibility]

27. I find the silence disturbing.

But of course it matters.