Column: These Black men say they'll vote for Caruso, not Bass. Is it the 'Ice Cube effect'?

[brooklynite]

Los Angeles Times

In retrospect, I missed the first sign that L.A. mayoral candidate Rep. Karen Bass might have some trouble hanging onto support from Black men.

It came in the middle of May, when legendary Long Beach rapper Snoop Dogg decided to reach out to her main opponent, the billionaire developer and former Republican Rick Caruso, and offer up his endorsement.

...snip...

Clarence Avant, the revered music industry mogul who introduced then-Sen. Barack Obama to Southern California’s political and entertainment circles, also endorsed Caruso. The 91-year-old, whose wife, Jacqueline, was murdered last year during an invasion of the their Beverly Hills home, left it to the candidate to break the news.

...snip...

A new poll of likely voters, conducted by the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies and sponsored by the Los Angeles Times, found that roughly half of Black men plan to vote for Caruso in Tuesday’s primary election. In fact, of all the men surveyed, Black men were most likely to support him.

This is a jungle Primary, and Democrats may come back to Bass in November after "sending a message" about crime and homeless, which appear to be the big issue. OTOH, Caruso may frame himself another Bloomberg-style technocrat.

[JohnSJ]

1. This is the f**king PRIMARY. THERE WILL BE A RUNOFF IN NOVEMBER BETWEEN BASS and CARUSO, and

BASS will take it.

Wow, another post aimed at demoralizing Democrats, which will surely be followed by the innocent excuse how, "I am just reporting the news"

Funny how some seem to focus that news too frequently on stories that slant toward division among Democrats

He is trying to buy this election, and spent more than 23 million dollars of his own money to do it.

No one should be fooled by him either. He is anti-choice, and has donated to anti-choice candidates. There is a reason Planned Parenthood doesn't support him

After what trump has put this country through, if LA is fooled by this sheep in wolves clothing, they deserve everything that is coming to them

[brooklynite]

2. Why do people assume intent in posting?

And why would posting something here have any impact on voting in the real world?

If Caruso is going to be competitive, I'd like to know that. If he's not competitive, you have nothing to worry about.

[JohnSJ]

3. 23 million can make you real competitive.

[brooklynite]

4. In which case, knowing what voting intent is would seem to be useful.

[femmedem]

11. I hope you keep posting despite the uptick of rude replies to your posts.

You do as much as anyone here to get Democrats elected and it bothers me to see people assume intent.

Fwiw, I find your posts informative and I would rather know troubling news than be blindsided.

[quaint]

10. Only a primary if no one receives more than 50%. Could be DECIDED 6/7.

There may not be a clear winner on Tuesday. If neither candidate secures more than half the vote — and there are others in the race, making that very unlikely — then the top two candidates will compete in November. The winner will replace Mayor Eric Garcetti, who is prevented from seeking reelection because of term limits, but who will leave behind an unhappy city and a confused Democratic Party.
source

[JohnSJ]

14. It won't be. It will be determined in November. I hate our stupid jungle primary, and our awful

low threshold recall system for Governor, which has nothing directly to do with the LA mayor race, but the number of candidates for races can get massive

All these factors gave us schwarzenegger, and will probably result in the recall of SF District Attorney Boudin, who I am no fan of, but even less of a fan of recalls for political reasons.

The only time a recall should be used is for criminal activity in my view

(rant over}

Sorry

[Samrob]

5. No time for "sending a message." Time to vote for the best candidate. PERIOD!!

[ColinC]

6. I think there should be cap on net-worth when running for office.

If a billionaire wants to run for office, he can sell his stocks, pay his taxes and donate the revenue to charity.

[kimbutgar]

7. Yeah Black men are going to vote for a white millionaire who up until January was a registered

Republican. We already had someone who had no political or legislative experience becoming President and how’d that turn out? Also what does this millionaire know about everyday experiences of working people in Los Angeles? Ms, Bass needs to refute this opponent now in ads.

[brooklynite]

8. In 2021, some folks didn't think Blacks would vote for pro-police Mayors...

[quaint]

12. In Los Angeles, public anger drives an identity-focused mayor's race

WaPo

There’s plenty to be mad about. Close to 50,000 people do not have permanent housing, according to homeless advocates and elected leaders, with a likely majority living outside on a regular basis. The Los Angeles Police Department is confronting both a rise in gun violence and a deepening contempt among liberal activists over recent responses to civil rights demonstrations. City Hall is a venue for pay-to-play investigations.

Then there is the up-all-night worry that, even with a place to live and a good job, Angelenos find it increasingly hard to secure a financial handhold here. Rents rise quickly, the housing market is exorbitant, and in a city of endless highways and long commutes, gas now costs more than $6 a gallon.

In this overwhelmingly Democratic city, billionaire real estate developer Rick Caruso has emerged as a front-runner, harnessing deep public anger over homelessness and crime. Caruso registered as Democrat just this year, and for much of his public life, has given to Republican causes. He has spent more than $25 million of his fortune in a bet on himself, as he has through much of his business life.

Paying the price is Rep. Karen Bass (D-Calif.), who has served six terms in Congress and was a shortlist finalist to be President Biden’s running mate. She emerged from years of community organizing in activism, particularly in South Los Angeles, but the abiding public animus to those in power now has her fighting hard to keep up with Caruso and his message that the city leadership must change.

[Just A Box Of Rain]

13. Caruso is a billionaire, not a millionaire.

He's already spent $40 million on this campaign.

Bass is trying, but there is an asymmetry in their resources that is overwhelming at this juncture.

Hopefully the race gets to a run-off and more resources can be brought to bear in support of Karen Bass.

[JohnSJ]

15. I think it will go to a run-off, at least according to the latest polls

[Just A Box Of Rain]

16. I've been almost afraid to look, but

The LA Times claims:

Bass has support of 38% of likely voters in the poll, which was conducted May 24-31. Caruso, who has bombarded Los Angeles’ airwaves with millions of dollars of advertising, has 32%.

My gut tells me otherwise, but if this gets to a run-off and Bass gets the resources she needs to counter Caruso's well-funded self-fashioning, her qualifications, experience, and values do offer hope.

I'm praying those poll numbers are close to being correct.

[JohnSJ]

17. No matter how one looks at it, it is close. I hope De Leon throws support to Bass

https://www.cbsnews.com/losangeles/news/poll-la-mayoral-race-heading-to-runoff-between-rep-karen-bass-rick-caruso/

[Just A Box Of Rain]

19. I'm confident that De Leon will support Bass assuming it gets to a run-off

That 23% to 35% of voters are undecided according to the LA Times is worrisome to me.

Getting to a general election and effectively countering Caruso's narrative is critical.

Karen Bass is a great choice for LA Mayor.

We will soon see the result of this primary. Keep good thoughts.

[JohnSJ]

22. I will

[Just A Box Of Rain]

9. There will be a run-off *if* no one gets above the 50% threshold

in the primary. Caruso's goal is to cross that threshold.

I'll be voting for Karen Bass, but Caruso has (after spending an estimated $40 million dollars) been able to "dog whistle" issues like crime and homelessness, while at the same time picking up (and highlighting) black endorsements in a way that blunts the obvious racism.

And he's running as "Democrat Rick Caruso."

From a perspective of a "neutral observer" (which I'm not), Caruso has run a brilliant campaign.
reinventing himself and attacking Karen Bass.

I'll be voting to stop him and to elect Bass. But the concerns people are having about this race are justified.

[ripcord]

20. A lot of people don't understand the frustration in L.A.

Rents are to the point of being abusive in Los Angeles, crime is portrayed as being out of control and homeless camps are everywhere, Karen Bass represents the status quo that many are tired of. They are literally willing to make a deal with the devil to have all that change, of course the devil won't keep his word but many are that desperate.

[beaglelover]

21. This is exactly true. L.A. needs a serious change in leadership.

Caruso is running as a Democrat. He has some very good plans to fix the homeless situation which is way out of control. Both my husband and I voted for him on Saturday.

[JI7]

23. Many Democrats are supporting Caruso becsuse of the homeless

situation and crime and other problems.

He has unlimited money and is running ads claiming to be prochoice .