the new NY-18, so if both Jones (who only slid over to 10th due to Maloney running in his district) and Maloney had just ran in the same districts they now are seated in, they would hardly be carpetbaggers, as they would both be representing most of the same people as they are now.
The new map is a clusterfuck, as was the whole process, which ended up with it all kicked to RW judge (how the hell did THAT happen in a Dem utterly dominated state???) who got to choose the Special Master who redrew it all, plus who had the final say. We have now went from a likely 22D seat win to perhaps as few as 16D seats, plus we lost a seat in NY to reapportionment, that went to TX, where it will likely go Red, as they gerrymandered hard. That is a potential 14 seat negative net swing loss against us just from NY, (we may lose as many as 7 seats, the Rethugs may win as many as 7).
And NY is far from the only state where we have unilaterally disarmed in terms of gerrymandering. The Rethugs ruthlessly do it, whist many Blue dominated states foolishly switched to new rules and 'independent' commissions.
How Democrats are ‘unilaterally disarming’ in the redistricting wars
Democrats have greater control of state legislatures than in the last round of redistricting but have turned over map-making powers in some states to independent commissions.
https://www.politico.com/news/2021/06/21/democrats-redistricting-wars-495303
Oregon Democrats had finally secured total control of redistricting for the first time in decades. Then, just months before they were set to draw new maps, they gave it away. In a surprise that left Democrats from Salem to Washington baffled and angry, the state House speaker handed the GOP an effective veto over the districts in exchange for a pledge to stop stymieing her legislative agenda with delay tactics. The reaction from some of Oregon’s Democratic House delegation was unsparing: “That was like shooting yourself in the head,” Rep. Kurt Schrader told POLITICO. Rep. Peter DeFazio seethed: “It was just an abysmally stupid move on her part.”
Yet what happened this spring in Oregon is just one example, though perhaps the most extreme one, of a larger trend vexing Democratic strategists and lawmakers focused on maximizing the party’s gains in redistricting. In key states over the past decade, Democrats have gained control of state legislatures and governorships that have long been in charge of drawing new maps — only to cede that authority, often to independent commissions tasked with drawing political boundaries free of partisan interference.
Supporters of these initiatives say it’s good governance to bar politicians from drawing districts for themselves and their party. But exasperated Democrats counter that it has left them hamstrung in the battle to hold the House, by diluting or negating their ability to gerrymander in the way Republicans plan to do in many red states. And with the House so closely divided, Democrats will need every last advantage to cling to their majority in 2022.
“We Democrats are cursed with this blindness about good government,” said Rep. Gerry Connolly of Virginia, a Democratic state that will nonetheless see its congressional map drawn by a newly created independent commission. “In rabid partisan states that are controlled by Republicans, they’re carving up left and right. And we’re kind of unilaterally disarming,” Connelly conceded, before adding: “But having said that, I still come down on the side of reforming this process because it’s got to start somewhere.”
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On gerrymandering, Dems confront unilateral disarmament
If Republicans intend to exploit gerrymandering opportunities, shouldn't Democrats do the same thing? The answer is ... tricky.
https://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/maddowblog/gerrymandering-dems-confront-unilateral-disarmament-n1277081
It's no secret that the Democratic majority in the U.S. House is already tiny. With next year's midterm elections looming, Republicans realize they already have 212 seats, and the odds of them reaching 218 seats are in their favor. Historical models aren't doing Democrats any favors -- the president's party nearly always loses a lot of seats in the first midterm cycle -- but just as important right now is the post-census redistricting process and the prospect of dramatic GOP gerrymandering. The New York Times reported last week:
Republicans hold total control of redistricting in 18 states, including Florida, North Carolina and Texas, which are growing in population and expected to gain seats after the 2020 census is tabulated. Some election experts believe the G.O.P. could retake the House in 2022 based solely on gains from newly drawn districts.
That last point is of particular interest: even if the American electorate doesn't shift at all in terms of ideology or partisan preferences, Republicans would be well positioned to reclaim the House majority simply be redrawing the lines in their favor. The challenge for Dems is daunting. There is, however, an obvious follow-up question: what about Democratic-led states? If Republicans intend to exploit gerrymandering for partisan advantage, why can't Dems do the same thing? The answer is ... a little complicated.
Broadly speaking, there are three angles to this that are worth keeping in mind. Right off the bat, part of the problem for Democrats is that there just aren't that many solidly blue states in which the party controls the governor's office and the state legislature. What's more, in some of these solidly blue states -- see Connecticut, Hawaii, and Delaware, for example -- there aren't any Republican representatives with seats to take.
That said, there are notable exceptions that matter. In Maryland, for example, Democrats have a veto-proof legislative majority and an opportunity to create an all-Democratic congressional delegation. In New York, it's possible Dems could draw a district map that could flip as many as five districts from "red" to "blue," which would make an enormous impact on the national totals. But I'm especially interested in the third group: states in which Democrats have effectively voluntarily surrendered their gerrymandering power in the interest of good governance.
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