We need to consider Boudin's loss in California

[ripcord]

With so many democrats voting for the recall we should look at where Boudin lost voter confidence because California is the perfect test bed for criminal justice reform. It is a safe state with a democratic super majority so we need to look at what went wrong and learn from that so we have a program we can successfully role out across the country.

[ColinC]

1. The next recall is for Gascon in LA.

He has completely dropped considering the death penalty and bail. They are trying to blame him for the looting and high crime -which is largely a consequence of increasing poverty and cost of living.

[ananda]

2. So, who made him a scapegoat? Or just didn't get the right message out...

about poverty and cost of living?

It looks like the rich have a special interest in not
wanting to live among or see the results of
income disparity.

[ColinC]

3. Likely. Short term solutions over long term ones can feel easier.

[MichMan]

4. Is unemployment high in SF and LA ?

Around where I live everyone seems to be emerging for workers.

[ColinC]

5. I just know homeless camps in LA have exponentially increaseed

...along with the urge to arrest and prosecute people for it. It is an enormou waste of money and unhelpful to the overall public. And of course given the cost of living, I'm still not sure unemployment lowering is necessarily helpful to decreasing poverty.

[MichMan]

6. Homeless people are stealing because the cost of living is high?

[ColinC]

7. Does that idea sound unfeasible to you?

[MichMan]

10. Fortunately I have never been homeless

I understand why high costs of housing can certainly lead to someone being homeless, but it doesn't follow why high rents would make homeless people need to steal.

[ColinC]

11. I think homelessness necessitates thefts in many ways.

Especially as being homeless makes it increasingly difficult to hold a job. Not having any form of income necessitates theft in order to live in many respects.

[ColinC]

8. (more related to my point)Camping outside of parks is illegal.

And prosecuting the maximum sentence for that crime makes no sense.

[iemanja]

9. Rents are astronomical

That is probably why there is an increase in homelessness. Then it becomes very difficult to hold a job without a residence.

People do steal out of need.

[ColinC]

12. Took the words right out of my mouth

I read your post only after posting my response.

[Xolodno]

38. It's a lot more complicated than that.

You have:

1. People living in these homeless camps that are full time employed. They obviously do not commit crime, but living in the parks, gym membership for showers, etc. But the camps are still an eyesore and people who used to frequent these parks, don't anymore. That's not going to lend itself to a politician.

2. I know in LA they are building small temporary housing with a bed, AC, heater, facilities and have frequent service drives to help them into a place of their own. But they can't build them fast enough and often have to go through a lot of red tape. Doesn't help either when they have to compete against developers. And of course, NIMBY. Doesn't help that the city also has to compete with developers when an old office or warehouse building goes vacant. Ironically, they often revamp them and turn them into housing, just not low cost housing as they can command higher rent.

3. Don't know how much, but, a portion of the homeless have been exported to our state by red states. They buy them a one way Greyhound ticket and wash their hands of the problem.

4. Some are long term mentally ill and need to be in a long term facility...which we lack.

5. Crime (usually from item #3 and #6). A long time back, someone burglarizes your car, call the police, they take a report and that's pretty much the end of it. But it was rare when it happened. Now its way too frequent and people are seeing their premiums going up.

6. We recently let a lot of people out of jail for small petty crimes, drug use, etc. And this is the states fault when it was strict on crime (i.e. three strikes law, etc.) Problem is, no job skills, felony on record (makes it harder to employ), etc. Sure they didn't belong in prison costing us an insane amount, but we didn't have anything lined up for them either.

7. Rent is insane. And they keep building/converting for more apartments, condo's etc. But, it can't seem to keep up. You have Air BNB, VRBO, etc. taking inventory off the market. I used to look at them when I travel, but stopped. It used to be a cheaper alternative if you didn't need a pool, sauna, etc. Now hotels are actually cheaper.

It's a multi-faceted problem that can't be solved with a cure-all. This is going to take a state-county-city cooperation to fix.

[Arazi]

71. Great post. Big rec

[Just A Box Of Rain]

72. Unemployment is low in LA

Just under 5%.

The cost of living, housing in particular, is high. Sky high.

[gldstwmn]

29. Explore: $6M poured into Boudin recall

http://www.cjcj.org/news/13312

Some $6 million has gone to the recall campaign over the past 15 months, according to Ethics Commission data. The anti-recall campaign has collected a smaller war chest of $2.7 million. Taken together, the total from both sides is roughly five-and-a-half times the combined amount amassed for all other San Francisco measures on the June 7 ballot.

Funding has been dominated by a small number of huge donations. That is especially true of the pro-recall camp, where money from a single political action committee (PAC), Neighbors for a Better San Francisco, accounts for 64 percent of the total funds.

(snip)

By a wide margin, the biggest contributor to the recall is a PAC called Neighbors for a Better San Francisco, which has contributed around $4 million to remove Boudin.

If that name rings a bell, it may be because the Neighbors PAC was the single largest contributor to the school board recall as well. Its money comes from a handful of extremely wealthy donors – but more on that later.

The second-biggest donor in favor of the recall is the California Association Of Realtors, which has donated $458,000 through three separate committees. Big individual donors include tech investor Garry Tan, PayPal co-founder David Sacks, and Chicago-based investor Daniel O’Keefe.

(snip)

A majority of the PAC’s money has come from donors involved in investment or real estate. And many of its biggest donors have regularly donated to Republican races, which is in large part what led the Boudin campaign to characterize the recall as “GOP-controlled.”

William Oberndorf, a major supporter of Sen. Mitch McConnell and other Republican politicians, has funneled a little over $600,000 into the Neighbors PAC since 2021 (plus $300,000 in 2020), as well as contributing $49,000 to the recall directly. John Kilroy, Diane “Dede” Wilsey, William Duhamel, Tom Chavez, and several others have all made major contributions to Republican races and have also poured money into the PAC.

http://www.cjcj.org/news/13312

[maxsolomon]

14. Completely dropped considering the Death Penalty?

In CA? Heaven forfend.

[ColinC]

16. yeah...

[question everything]

15. I thought that CA eliminated the death penatly

[ColinC]

18. It is suspended, but not eliminated.

People can still be sent to death row, and could still be executed if the governor changes his mind or a new one with a different opinion is elected.

[Raine]

19. We still have the death penalty. nt

[maxsolomon]

21. Still on the books

but they haven't executed anyone since 2006. Newsome enacted a moratorium in 2019.

I can't believe Gascon has the nerve not to even consider it! Don't they know how bloodthirsty Americans are?

https://www.cdcr.ca.gov/capital-punishment/

[maxsolomon]

13. It was a Recall. A small percentage of the overall SF electorate participated.

How many is "so many" Democrats?

[Johonny]

45. Pretty much my read

It was primary night, but a small percentage of the actual main voter base turned out. That may indicate a lack of voter enthusiasm, but if that translates to November . . . I have no idea.

When the economy is whacked incumbents can be very vulnerable for irrational reasons.

[gldstwmn]

56. Only 25% of the registered voters turned out and as we all know low voter turnout is not good for

Last edited Wed Jun 8, 2022, 11:19 PM - Edit history (2)

Democrats and Boudin is a Democrat who was endorsed by the San Francisco Democratic Party. He can run again in November.

[Zeitghost]

57. I'm not sure we can blame turnout for favoring Republicans

When Dems up ballot were getting 75%+ of the votes in San Francisco and without adding it up, I'd guess half of the remaining 25% were for left leaning candidates.

His office was failing to bring charges in 85% of felony DV cases. In the age of Me Too and the war on Roe, failing to protect women is a losing proposition.

[gldstwmn]

63. Boudin prosecutes disgraced cop for domestic violence after Sacramento DA failed

Judging by his track record of arrests over the past year, former Sacramento police officer Justin Shepard is a dangerous and violent criminal who can’t stop beating up his girlfriend.

Last May, the Sacramento Police Department arrested Shepard after his girlfriend alleged he hit her, strangled her, pointed a gun at her and also threatened to kill her and dispose of her body in a Northern California lake. The office of Sacramento District Attorney Anne Marie Schubert, a former Republican running as an independent candidate for California attorney general, did not file charges.

Three months later, police responded to another domestic violence call involving Shepard. This incident, however, happened in San Francisco — a city with a DA who Schubert loves to attack as weak on crime. On Aug. 6, SFPD officers responded to reports of a domestic violence incident involving Shepard and the same victim at the Marriott Marquis hotel on Fourth Street. Officers found the distraught woman, who took off her mask to reveal a bloody mouth. Shepard, she told them, was a police officer who had a previous arrest for attacking her in Sacramento.

“The victim was visibly upset and crying and appeared confused as to what to do,” wrote an SFPD officer in an incident report. “She provided some insight with prior issues with the male and said she has unsuccessfully (been) able to obtain help with her efforts with Sacramento PD with prior incidents.”

https://www.sfexaminer.com/the_fs/forum/boudin-prosecutes-disgraced-cop-for-domestic-violence-after-sacramento-da-failed/article_a8d17507-14b8-530f-a2d2-cb48bc678dc6.html

[jalan48]

17. My guess is that people got tired of the car break-ins and the blatant shoplifting by drug

addicts to feed their habits.

[ColinC]

20. They will likely still get tired of it, as harsher punishments has not and will not reduce

these crimes.

[jalan48]

24. So just watch people roll shopping carts full of stuff out the door and ignore it? Actually,

this is the kind of shit that gets people like Trump elected.

[ColinC]

28. Last I checked, DAs are not responsible for arresting shopping cart thief's.

And not prosecuting crimes with the harshest penalty is a far cry from "ignoring the crime." It is insane that we have somehow come to a consensus that not considering extreme punishments for minor crimes is the same as ignoring all crime

[jalan48]

32. What do you suggest as a solution to the break-ins and shoplifting by homeless drug addicts?

I know, more rehab options but since that is expensive and not happening what else?

[gldstwmn]

35. Maybe someone could answer why SFPD has less than a 9% clearance rate for crimes.

[jalan48]

37. I guess it would depend on the type of crime. What was Boudin's attitude toward crime?

Here's some info on clearance rates nationally.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/194213/crime-clearance-rate-by-type-in-the-us/

[gldstwmn]

54. I would think that an 8.1% clearance rate is piss poor compared to any of those.

But I will provide a link for you below. Meanwhile here is some further info from Mother Jones. Note that the Door Dash founder poured money into the recall effort most likely because Boudin went after him for wage theft.

For some low-level crimes, he began diverting more offenders to alternative programs like mental health and substance abuse treatment. He also promised not to pursue the death penalty or to prosecute juveniles as adults.

Meanwhile, Boudin did seek to prosecute powerful actors who often escape scrutiny: His office filed charges against police officers for excessive force, while also suing the food delivery service DoorDash for unfair labor practices.

His opponents, financed partly by a Republican billionaire and venture capitalists, argued that his policies made the city less safe. “It’s turned into Escape From New York, Gotham City-level chaos here,” Jason Calacanis, an angel investor for Robinhood and Uber who supported the recall, said in 2021 on a podcast he co-hosts. The data does not support those claims: As I previously reported, overall crime is down in San Francisco, and the city has a relatively low homicide rate compared with other places of a similar size. Property crimes, which rose during the first year of the pandemic, are generally moving back toward more normal levels, with some exceptions like car thefts.

(snip)

“Anytime someone is trying to change a system, there’s resistance to it,” the Vera Institute’s Johnson says of Boudin’s critics. The district attorney has faced pushback not only from the city’s police union, which described him during his 2019 campaign as the “#1 choice of criminals and gang members,” but also from Mayor London Breed, who has been openly critical of him in the media.

As numerous columnists and reporters have pointed out, there’s no evidence that Boudin was responsible for shifting crime rates in San Francisco during the pandemic. Homicides, for example, spiked almost universally around the country during 2020, in red and blue states alike. Boudin’s office is also just one piece of a complicated legal system: The city’s police department has been arresting far fewer people than it used to, with its lowest clearance rate in a decade.

https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2022/06/san-francisco-voters-just-ousted-their-reformist-district-attorney/

The San Francisco Police Department’s crime clearance rates have dropped to its lowest level in a decade, spurring much lamentation at Wednesday night’s Police Commission meeting.

A February letter of inquiry from District 9 Supervisor Hillary Ronen to Police Chief Bill Scott was extensively discussed at the meeting. That letter expressed concerns that a “political rift” between the SFPD and the DA’s office was “causing a deliberate work stoppage” by the police.

Explanations from the chief of police and his colleague defending the department didn’t appear to satisfy the three Board of Supervisors-appointed commissioners — the only ones who spoke during Wednesday evening’s agenda item. The three mayoral appointees on the commission sat silent.

Only 8.1 percent of reported crimes in 2021 led to an arrest. That is “the lowest it’s been in the past 10 years,” said acting president Cindy Elias, reading off the SFPD’s low clearance rates for various crimes as compared to national averages. The current rate, she said, is unacceptable.

Ronen’s letter noted reports in the media, as well as instances when she and her staff had personally witnessed members of the SFPD tell constituents that there is no point in investigating crimes or arresting perpetrators “because the District Attorney will not prosecute,” a claim she called “patently false.”

Data shows that DA Chesa Boudin’s charging rates are actually higher than those of previous DAs.
https://missionlocal.org/2022/04/sfpd-rate-of-solving-crimes-already-well-below-national-average-gets-worse/

[Demovictory9]

41. ... and stores were locking up everything, getting rid of carts, even closing down

the mass shoplifting impacts city dwellers.

Want to get toothpaste? Gotta find someone one to unlock it.

[WhiskeyGrinder]

26. Exactly.

[Sympthsical]

34. Burglaries are up 45% since he took office

So we know the leniency isn't working.

People really don't like the, "Don't charge or prosecute" crime approach. There were several big cases that hammered him.

The Asian-American community was basically ignored by him during an uptick in hate crimes against them.

62 prosecutors were fired or resigned during his tenure.

And on and on and on.

But nah. It's the Republicans.

The man made his bed.

[ColinC]

39. Same can be said for places that seek traditionally harsh punishment (ie NYC with 44%)

...and 58% increase in crime -which is far worse than San Francisco. Leniency or not does not have an effect on crime rate. The issues that do are largely economic. The point is, being more or less cruel has no impact on whether people commit crimes as much as the specific set of factors that lead to crime (ie poverty).

[Sympthsical]

47. We spend more money on social services than most cities in the U.S.

Over $1 billion on homelessness alone.

When you are spending that much, and things are actually getting worse, then it's time to take a step back from ideology and wonder what you're doing wrong.

Saying leniency doesn't affect crime beggars belief. If people know no one's going to arrest or prosecute them, they're going to be emboldened. Hence all the shoplifting and burglary.

Common sense needs to overtake ideological wishcasting at some point.

Boudin fucked around and found out.

[ColinC]

49. Again same is true with NYC.

And this was played like a broken record a couple years ago, but social services spending doesn't nearly compare to law enforcement spending, yet crime continues to go through the roof. Perhaps spending more on law enforcement with super harsh punishments doesn't actually work. Let's talk about this again when the level of social services spending equals that of law enforcement.

Again, NYC's crime rate and burglary rates either match or surpass san francisco's despite having a more traditional "law and order" take on crime. If what you say is true, their crime rate should at least be better than San Francisco's -if actually tough law enforcement practices actually prevented crime.

Truth is, if you compare crime rates with SF and NYC, perhaps I am wrong about harshness not effecting crime. Perhaps crime is actually lessened by less harsh policies in comparison to these two cities and their practices.

Also this: http://www.cjcj.org/mobile/news/13312

[gldstwmn]

61. Your police department has a budget of $700 million. Why are their arrests declining?

[Demovictory9]

42. shoplifters learned the rules...read about shoplifters yelling "you can't touch me, you can't touch

me!" when store owners tried to grab back their stuff from the shoplifter.

Situation is like the eviction rules... everyone is saying "I have rights..." when someone wants to evict them.

Word spreads.

[Sympthsical]

48. And it's spreading to the suburbs

My local stores have their regular lifters now. They didn't have this going on five years ago. People just walk in and walk out, and store employees are advised to let them go, because corporations don't want to get involved.

I've told this story before. I don't know what the status of the situation is now. But, my ex tenant used to work at a Safeway. He said every two days, a man would come in and put two cases of beer in a cart. He'd then walk, unimpeded, right out the door. They were told to leave it alone.

The man knew, by the time cops got there, he'd be long gone. Even if he ever was arrested (I don't know if he ever was), what consequences would he face?

If left alone, these things become the norm instead of criminal aberration. That is the danger of the kind of lenience Boudin has encouraged. There's a massive difference between criminal justice reform and that.

[Demovictory9]

62. bystanders (non store workers) have started to get involved. it think, emotionally, following the

rules when others dont really irk people.

There are lots of videos now, of shoplifters filling bags, while employees watch. I think wide spread mask wearing encouraged the behavior too. We all can walk around looking like zorro.

[gldstwmn]

64. Why is Chesa Boudin responsible for what happens in the suburbs?

Don't they have their own DA?

[gldstwmn]

59. Burglary, rape, robbery, motor vehicle theft, and arson all declined last year.

[BannonsLiver]

22. My guess is it had something to do with him being a DA who refused to prosecute anyone

Which is sort of the gig, really. So don’t do be a Chesa would be the takeaway.

[gldstwmn]

65. Only 8.1 percent of reported crimes in 2021 led to an arrest.

That is “the lowest it’s been in the past 10 years,” said acting president Cindy Elias, reading off the SFPD’s low clearance rates for various crimes as compared to national averages. The current rate, she said, is unacceptable.

Ronen’s letter noted reports in the media, as well as instances when she and her staff had personally witnessed members of the SFPD tell constituents that there is no point in investigating crimes or arresting perpetrators “because the District Attorney will not prosecute,” a claim she called “patently false.”

Data shows that DA Chesa Boudin’s charging rates are actually higher than those of previous DAs.

https://missionlocal.org/2022/04/sfpd-rate-of-solving-crimes-already-well-below-national-average-gets-worse/

[MichMan]

73. The key word there is "reported"

How many more were unreported since people figured it was likely a waste of time to do so?

[gldstwmn]

75. Maybe the cops should stop gaslighting them into thinking that.

Oh, I see why. Their clear rate for larceny is 2.4%.

“Nobody reports shoplifting [to the police],” Rick Karp, president of Cole Hardware, told SFGATE in December. “It’s a waste of time, and the best thing that happens is the police write a report and file it away someplace. Nothing happens.”

Karp's sentiments are not off-base; San Francisco police say they "cleared" (meaning an arrest was made and suspects turned over to courts for prosecution) 2.4% of larceny theft cases last year.

https://www.sfgate.com/crime/article/San-Francisco-crime-Chesa-Boudin-London-Breed-16751930.php

[BannonsLiver]

94. Yeah, I'm sure they worked hard to massage those numbers to create that stat

Anyway, he’s gone.

[gldstwmn]

96. Those numbers are from the San Francisco police department.

https://www.sanfranciscopolice.org/stay-safe/crime-data/clearance-rates-dashboard

Only 8.1 percent of reported crimes in 2021 led to an arrest. That is “the lowest it’s been in the past 10 years,” said acting president Cindy Elias, reading off the SFPD’s low clearance rates for various crimes as compared to national averages. The current rate, she said, is unacceptable.

https://missionlocal.org/2022/04/sfpd-rate-of-solving-crimes-already-well-below-national-average-gets-worse/

Note the larceny clearance rate of 2.9% and that one of the things the recallers were so up in arms about was shoplifting.

[gldstwmn]

23. San Francisco recalls DA Chesa Boudin in blow to criminal justice reform

San Francisco residents have voted to recall the district attorney, Chesa Boudin, who was elected on an agenda of criminal justice reform but faced intensifying backlash from law enforcement, conservatives and residents concerned about crime.

Boudin’s removal as the city’s top prosecutor in the middle of his first term is a major blow to a growing movement across the US to elect progressive DAs dedicated to tackling mass incarceration, police brutality and racism in the legal system.

(snip)

After his election in 2019, Boudin created a wrongful conviction unit that freed a man imprisoned for decades; eliminated cash bail in an effort to ensure people weren’t jailed because they were too poor to pay a fee; stopped prosecuting contraband cases that originated with minor traffic stops; and became the first San Francisco DA to charge an officer for an alleged on-duty manslaughter.

Through resentencing, diversion and other reforms, Boudin has overseen a 35% reduction in the number of San Francisco residents in state prisons, a 37% decline in the adult jail population, and a 57% decline in the juvenile jail population.

(snip)

The San Francisco recall campaign had a huge financial advantage, backed by ultra-wealthy donors, the San Francisco Chronicle reported, including Ron Conway, an early DoorDash investor, and William Oberndorf, a billionaire and Republican mega-donor. Critics blamed Boudin for crime, violence, homelessness, retail thefts and other challenges that escalated during the pandemic. Homicides have increased in the city, echoing national trends, but overall violent crime decreased during the pandemic.

Experts say prosecutors’ policies often have little bearing on crime rates, which are a function of complex socioeconomic factors, with some research suggesting that harsher punishments do not deter crime. As the recall gained ground, Boudin’s office noted that some California regions with “tough on crime” DAs promoting a traditional punitive approach were experiencing higher crime rates than San Francisco.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/jun/07/san-francisco-vote-chesa-boudin-recall

[gldstwmn]

25. Progressive DA Chesa Boudin is out, which will solve none of San Francisco's problems

Still, those dancing around celebrating the recall of the 41-year-old San Francisco prosecutor that racists refer to as “Soros-funded” and a “Jewish communist” are seriously mistaken. And those arguing that Boudin is out of a job because his policies turned the town where Tony Bennett left his heart into a dystopian den of homelessness and drug abuse have gotten a few things wrong. First, there’s that phrase, “Even in the most liberal city in America …” Yes, San Francisco is heavily Democratic, but it’s also a place where mostly only millionaires can now afford to live. Key Democratic constituencies that are in short supply in the city include working families and Black people; only 5.6% of San Franciscans are African Americans.

First, there’s that phrase, “Even in the most liberal city in America …” Yes, San Francisco is heavily Democratic, but it’s also a place where mostly only millionaires can now afford to live. Key Democratic constituencies that are in short supply in the city include working families and Black people; only 5.6% of San Franciscans are African Americans.

(snip)

That’s just false; in fact, crime in Sacramento, where District Attorney Anne Marie Schubert, a Boudin critic, rose even faster. Both violent crimes and property crimes fell dramatically during Boudin’s first two years as D.A. In 2020, homicides in San Francisco rose 16.7%. But that’s compared to an increase just shy of 30% in Sacramento, where Schubert cannot be accused of ever going soft on anybody. Despite a series of high-profile smash-and-grab robberies in luxury stores in Union Square, overall robberies have been down every year for the last five years in San Francisco.

Read more at: https://www.sacbee.com/opinion/editorials/article262282912.html#storylink=cpy

[ColinC]

30. +10,000

[gldstwmn]

27. San Francisco's crime rates fall while Sacramento's "tough-on-crime" DA presides over rising violenc

SAN FRANCISCO – June 2, 2022 – A publication released today by the Center on Juvenile and Criminal Justice compares crime trends during Sacramento County District Attorney Anne Marie Schubert’s conservative prosecutorial term in office with those of San Francisco’s progressive prosecutors (George Gascon and Chesa Boudin) over a key period in California’s criminal justice reform era (2014-2021). DA Schubert has positioned herself as the state’s leading “tough-on-crime” candidate as she criticizes San Francisco’s progressive DA, Chesa Boudin, and seeks to unseat California’s reform-minded Attorney General, Rob Bonta. Yet DA Schubert’s rhetoric and policies have not delivered lower crime or falling crime rates. In fact, San Francisco has sustained larger crime declines overall and achieved lower rates of violent crime than the City of Sacramento since 2014.

Violent crime rates have risen an average of 9% in Sacramento while falling an average of 29% in San Francisco from 2014-2021, a period that spans the tenures of DA Schubert and San Francisco's progressive DA’s.

The report finds:

Rates of homicide, other violent crimes, and property crimes fell faster in San Francisco than in the City of Sacramento from 2014-2021, even as San Francisco reduced its incarceration rate (-38%) much faster than Sacramento County (-24%).
Today, the City of Sacramento has higher rates of violent crime than San Francisco, including for homicide, rape, and aggravated assault.
The San Francisco Police Department solves a far smaller share of reported crimes than police in any major California city, presenting the DA with fewer cases to prosecute. Sacramento’s DA receives a higher proportion of reported cases from local police departments, particularly for violent offenses.
Sacramento’s heavy reliance on imprisonment cost California taxpayers $151.6 million, while San Francisco’s progressive approach saved the state $163.3 million.
http://www.cjcj.org/news/13312

[ColinC]

50. The people chastising these prosecutors conveniently ignore the far worse situation

In cities with "tough on crime" DAs.

[gldstwmn]

55. Absolutely.

Their fight against Boudin is part of a broader tough-on-crime movement that has gained momentum during the pandemic. In Los Angeles, progressive District Attorney George Gascón faces a well-funded recall effort, too. Last year, so did multiple prosecutors in Virginia who campaigned on similar promises to make the legal system fairer for low-income people and people of color. In March, an Illinois lawmaker introduced a bill to recall reformist State’s Attorney Kim Foxx, accusing her of creating a “crisis of confidence in the Cook County judicial system.”

In all these places, “people are using fear narratives to paint a picture that reform and safety are opposite,” says Akhi Johnson, a former prosecutor who now works at the Vera Institute of Justice, a think tank that collaborates with progressive district attorneys. For instance, one anti-Boudin group in San Francisco wrote recently on its website that “as car break-ins, burglaries, and overdoses reach a crisis level in San Francisco, Boudin’s refusal to hold serial offenders and drug dealers accountable is putting more of us at risk.” Fearmongering like this can be persuasive: A few polls suggest that a majority of San Francisco voters (between 57 and 68 percent) now want to oust Boudin in the recall, including many Democrats. (One poll, commissioned by Boudin’s supporters, suggested that 48 percent of voters want to recall him.)

Boudin’s critics say they feel unsafe under his leadership. But the thing is, while the pandemic has undoubtedly heightened existing crises around homelessness, drug use, and mental health in San Francisco and elsewhere, crime rates are not spiraling out of control, and there’s no evidence that Boudin or other DAs are responsible for the upticks that have occurred. In fact, academics who studied progressive prosecutors around the country found that their policies did not cause violence to rise. With less than two weeks until the votes are counted in San Francisco, here’s a breakdown of the most relevant research about crime rates, progressive prosecutors, and the link (or lack thereof) between the two.

(snip)

These problems began long before Boudin took office, but for many San Francisco residents, it seems like they’ve gotten worse in the last couple of years. According to local and national data, an overwhelming majority of San Franciscans, like a majority of Americans, believe crime rates have gone up. Some of them may be reacting to media reports about shootings or other acts of violence, says the Vera Institute’s Johnson: “The tragic incident sticks with them; the fear piece of it tends to latch on.”

(snip)

What is new, however, is that cops appear to be making fewer arrests for these types of crimes than they used to. In fact, the police clearance rate in San Francisco has dropped to its lowest in a decade, at just 8.1 percent. Some officers say they see no point bringing a suspect to the station because they believe Boudin is unlikely to pursue the case. (They’re wrong—more on that later.) Earlier this month, Boudin said his office had to go so far as renting a U-Haul to bust a boba shop that was accused of fencing stolen goods, after the police allegedly declined to help.

https://www.motherjones.com/crime-justice/2022/05/chesa-boudin-crime-rates-false-narratives-progressive-da-george-gascon-kim-foxx/

[MichMan]

69. How many crimes simply went unreported because the victims knew it was a waste of time ?

[gldstwmn]

74. You mean because the cops keep telling people they won't get prosecuted?

Funny that. They've been telling people that where I live too. It's almost like someone told them to say that. Who on earth would do such a thing?

[MichMan]

76. Probably had it happen to themselves or friends before and nothing was done.

How is it that you hear of people arrested multiple times and they keep getting released and not charged?

How about Troy McAllister who killed two women in a hit & run ?

https://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/local/san-francisco/sf-da-boudin-blamed-by-some-for-release-of-parolee-suspected-of-fatal-nye-hit-and-run/2435759/

[gldstwmn]

78. "You hear of people arrested multiple times and they keep getting arrested and not charged"

are not facts, they are a game of telephone used by the other side to distort actual facts.

[MichMan]

82. So DA Boudin never said this when he was quoted by NBC News and it was all fabricated?

Do you even believe the two women were killed, or was that also made up too ?


The man arrested was Troy McAlister, who was allegedly under the influence at the time of the crash, and according to police, he had just committed a burglary. Despite his several arrests since April, Boudin said he chose to refer McAlister’s cases to state parole agents.

“We’re all disappointed in the outcome,” Boudin said. “The outcome is horrific. We’re all taking a close look at what might have been done differently that could have possibly prevented this and what changes we can make moving forward… It’s certainly too late for the two women who died and their families.”

[Deminpenn]

33. LE hates these DAs because

the DAs are looking into police misconduct and misconduct of attorneys in the DAs office, too. The DAs are a threat to the prison industry, too.

[brooklynite]

51. And you know this but the SF voters, newspapers, etc. were too dense to see it?

[Deminpenn]

89. Try watching the Independent Lens documentary

"Philly DA".

[gldstwmn]

60. Unsurprisingly, the SFPD is among Boudin's most vocal opponents.

Their animosity is not necessarily unwarranted: Boudin’s office — like Krasner’s in Philadelphia — has prioritized cases of police misconduct. Boudin is the first DA in the city’s history to bring homicide charges against a cop.

The San Francisco Police Officers Association has not officially endorsed the recall campaign, but the union began targeting Boudin before he was elected. When he ran in 2019, SFPOA spent at least $650,000 to defeat his campaign and ran Facebook ads attacking him from February 2021 through August. In February 2022, SFPD pulled out of an agreement, put in place under Gascón, that allowed his office to investigate police shootings.

https://theintercept.com/2022/06/03/san-francisco-chesa-boudin-recall/

[Deminpenn]

90. How many true cases have there been of the wrong

person being charged, convicted, sent to jail because cops and DAs get so invested in there theory of the case, they can't admit a mistake? Sometimes that involves misconduct by the cops, DAs or both. LE has a duty to gather facts and evidence. Prosecutors have a duty to scrutinize that evidence objectively. But sometimes prosecutors get too tight with LE causing them to lose objectivity. DAs like Boudin are trying to root that out. It's not easy and plenty of toes get stepped on in the process.

For people of means, raising the 10% bail isn't too hard, but for those without, even raising a small amount can be problematic. I know someone who couldn't raise bail for one of their kids who was in a local county jail for over a year just waiting for a hearing. And, there is a charge for everything outside of the basics like meals and clothes. There's a reason companies like SCI want to run prisons; they can make money off the prisoners and their families.

[Novara]

36. Read this: it tells you everything you need to know

HOW SAN FRANCISCO BECAME A FAILED CITY

It has changed A LOT since I lived in the Bay Area about 10 years ago.

[jalan48]

43. Good article. Thanks for sharing.

[Novara]

44. You're welcome

Pretty eye-opening for me. I hadn't lived there in over a decade but the beginnings of the current mess were underway then.

[Raine]

46. THANKS for the link! 👍 nt

[betsuni]

52. Thank you so much for posting that link, wonderful article!

"an ideology that makes sense everywhere but reality."

[obnoxiousdrunk]

58. Great article.

Thanks !

[Sympthsical]

66. The section on the school board is an absolute trip

Did they all think they were on Twitter?

I knew a little bit about it just from living in the area, but just . . . wow.

Wow.

[jalan48]

77. Allison Collins's a real clown. Her racist tweets aimed at Asians were too much.

After the tweets came to light, a member of the board asked Collins to voluntarily step down. But she refused. Instead, she sued five of her fellow members. She also sued the district. She asked for $87 million, citing, among other afflictions, “severe mental, and emotional distress,” “damage to self-image,” and “injury to spiritual solace. Her case was tossed in February 2022

[BigDemVoter]

40. They had Democrats out campaigning against him. . . .

It was non-stop. And yeah, we have homeless. They strew garbage around sometimes. But a pack of violence here compared to other places? Nope.

[gldstwmn]

68. I think a lot of people got hoodwinked yesterday. I think a lot of people in LA are

about to get hoodwinked.

[Just A Box Of Rain]

81. I live in LA

and voted for Gascon in hopes of making much needed progress in criminal and social justice.

I'm not supporting the recall. But I'd never vote for him again given a choice of a qualified liberal alternative.

I'm not "hoodwinked." While I respect the passionate of your defense, his tenure has not helped make LA feel like a more civilized place to live.

Criminals feel emboldened, knowing they brazenly commit crimes and that they are unlikely to face prosecution. That is taking a toll.

[gldstwmn]

88. Most of the same group is backing the Gascon recall.

I haven't done a lot of research on Gascon. But I would be curious to see how wrapped up the cops are in his recall too. Why is it that we can't see the injuries to the school children in Uvalde yet horrific videos like the one you mentioned are easy to find and view? Something Matthew McConaughey said about sensationalized media coverage comes to mind.

[JanMichael]

53. What bugs me is that I am of the Left. We, my type, don't dig...

... allowing people to shoot up heroin or it's big bad cousin on the street.

These people are not Leftists. They are either nihilist or anarchist. Or libertarian.

This soft so-called left needs to be eradicated.

[gldstwmn]

67. Maybe the cops with their 8.1% clearance rate and $700 million budget could eradicate

some drug dealers.

[Diablo del sol]

70. DON'T PLAY THE GAME BY REPUKE RULES!

He was elected, got out too far over his ski's.

Democrats elected him, Democrats fixed it.

Compare that to the shits in the puke side. Greene, Boebert, any Texas elected repuke, any Arizona elected Repuke, Rand Paul, Mitch.

Repuke COCK SUCKING, MOTHER FUCKING, PIECES OF SHIT, DO JACK FUCKING SHIT!

So fuck them in the ass with a red hot poker stick. Democracy works when errors are corrected. And once again, Democrats lead. Repukes do nothing but bitch.

[gldstwmn]

79. The recall effort was backed by the San Francisco Republican Party.

You good with that?

[Diablo del sol]

80. How many fucking Repuke voters are there in SF

You get every fucking one of them and you still need 40+ percent of Dems. He lost 61 to 39. Do the math. Democrats kicked his ass out.

You good with that?

[ripcord]

83. I live in California and have to laugh when people blame Republicans for things they don't like

Democrats removed Boudin because they were tired of the crime they believe has been caused policies and he refused any of the changes the voters wanted.

[Diablo del sol]

84. Right!

Now I get some of it, the last encounter I had with SF Police sucked. Walking down the road at 9:00 AM trying to find an address right off Market. (Turned out to be a building directly behind Twitter that could only be accessed by 9th or 10th?) Come across four cops who asked if we needed help. Gave them the address which was literally a block away, got incorrect directions then a long follow up on how the City sucked, don't get mugged, on and on.

But when people don't leave a damn thing in their car, leave the windows open so they don't get broken windows, there is a problem. The PD seems to be a big part of the issue, but they aren't going to fire the entire PD.

If some new guys come in and make SF residents a priority for hiring new cops, I can get behind that. But ignoring the issue and blaming Repukes is not a winning strategy.

For full disclosure, I live in SoCal. But during the next crash, I am buying whatever I can afford in SF. Guaranteed money maker. One of the greatest cities in the world. Thanks to Fox News/RW hate radio. It will be like picking up a place in Manhattan in the 80's.

[gldstwmn]

85. The San Francisco Republican Party backed Boudin's recall. That's a fact, Jack.

It was also backed by a Republican billionaire that is a major donor of Mitch McConnell and the founder of Door Dash that he sued for wage theft. If you want to roll around in that muck go right ahead.
It's pathetic to see Democrats being bashed on this website.

[Raine]

86. Exactly

and all the recall side needs to do to get Gascon out here in LA is show the video of the guy running down the mother pushing her baby in a stroller. It's an awful thing to see and is only one of the things that's going to get Gascon out.

[gldstwmn]

87. 25% of registered voters, not Democrats.

Also I said the Republican Party backed his recall. Don't get it twisted.

Meanwhile, on February 24, 2022, the San Francisco Democratic County Central Committee voted by a margin of 20–2 to oppose the recall effort. The two committee members supporting the recall were Suzy Loftus and Nancy Tung; both were candidates in the 2019 district attorney election won by Boudin.

https://48hills.org/2022/02/sf-democrats-overwhelmingly-vote-to-oppose-boudin-recall/

[Dorian Gray]

91. Isn't it obvious?

The non prosecution of petty crimes led to rampant petty crime. Car break-ins. Theft at supermarket/pharmacies. Rampant homelessness. Quality of life was affected by this. In SF it wasn't just Boudin, either. You add to that the school board and their response to covid, and the majority of families felt that it was untenable and unlivable.

Boudin was radical. Maybe in a different time his non-prosecutorial policies would work better. But the chaos and destabilization over the last couple of years combined with an increase in homelessness and drug use made it untenable.

I know there are data about crime going down overall, but people SEE what's happening on the streets, but rising homelessness combined with increase in petty crimes in a city with a huge wealth disparity creates REAL problems and makes it unlivable.

We are seeing something similar rising in NYC, but we aren't quite where SF is at.

[gldstwmn]

95. Chesa Boudin did exactly what he said he was going to do as DA.

He is the same now as he was when he was elected. Calling him a radical is disingenuous at best and dirty and dishonest at worst. His parents were radicals who spent the majority of his life in prison. They did not raise him. It is completely unfair to put the sins of the parents upon the child.
This recall effort started after he had only been in office a few months. They were no stats about blaming him for rising crime then.
If anything, Tuesday's recall reveals that in fact maybe some of those who had buyer's remorse were in fact fake social justice warriors and fake progressives just trying to make themselves feel better by voting for Chesa Boudin and that effecting any kind of real change is just too much for them.
This country is on an ugly descent into fascism. Tuesday was certainly a victory for that.

[Dorian Gray]

97. People voted for him

then they voted to recall him. They didn't like where things were going.

I don't know what else to tell you.

California allows for recalls. We don't have them here in NY.

[gldstwmn]

98. They were hoodwinked by a campaign to recall supported by Republicans, specifically

by a billionaire that supports Mitch McConnell. I don't really need to be told anything. 48 hours worth of research yielded exactly who was behind it. And yeah CA has recalls that mostly Republicans use to try to unseat Democrats or their policies. SF has some real, long standing issues with their police department. I will be interested to see if Boudin runs again in November and if he wins. He was only DA for 2.5 years. Real change and not reactionary change takes time, it's difficult and at times ugly. SF is so wealthy that I do wonder if people just think they can buy a solution.

[Dorian Gray]

99. They were hoodwinked?

Come on. That assumes the entire electorate is not capable of thinking for themselves.

SF is a wealthy city, and there is a HUGE wealth disparity. It's also true that many areas that are majority non white voted for the recall. Why? The answer is not because they were "hoodwinked." Quality of life in SF has been deteriorating. Rightly or wrongly people blamed Boudin and his policies for that.

[gldstwmn]

100. I have laid it out in this thread. Again 25% of the electorate voted in the recall.

There was a concerted effort to make people see things in a certain light. Boudin did exactly what he said he was going to do when he ran. People don't want to look at the ugliness of change so they voted for an idea that they were sold that they wouldn't have to look at it anymore. Do you think it looks any different today than it did on Tuesday? Do you think it will look any different in 3 weeks or 3 months or in 5 months when the election is held?

[AntivaxHunters]

92. People fell for a bunch of right wing copaganda

Link to tweet

Link to tweet

Link to tweet

Link to tweet

Link to tweet

Link to tweet

[gldstwmn]

93. They sure did. They have been working at it since

Boudin had been in office for a few months.

San Francisco is one of the most highly policed cities in California. According to the FBI, San Francisco had 26 sworn police officers per 10,000 residents as of 2019, the latest year with data that is comparable across cities. That's more than any other California city with at least 100,000 residents.
And yet their clearance rate is only 8.1%. The citizens should be outraged... at the cops.