Democrats Fetterman, Shapiro show early leads in USA Today Network/Suffolk University poll

[brooklynite]

Erie Times-News

A USA Today Network/Suffolk University poll in Pennsylvania released this week suggests a clear U.S. Senate frontrunner -- with a tighter race for governor.

According to the Suffolk University Political Research Center, Democrat John Fetterman holds a 9-point lead over Republican Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania's closely watched U.S. Senate race. The two are seeking to fill the seat being vacated by Republican U.S. Sen. Pat Toomey.

In the state's gubernatorial race, Democrat Josh Shapiro has a 4-point advantage over Republican Doug Mastriano, which is within the poll's plus or minus 4.4-percentage-point margin of error. Green Party candidate Christina “PK” DiGiulio and Libertarian Party candidate Matt Hackenburg are polling at just 1% each.

The early leads for Fetterman and Shapiro come despite a Republican surge that's reduced Democrats' registration lead from 8 percentage points to 4 percentage points since 2018 in the state.

[Demsrule86]

1. It is only one poll of course but I wonder if you consider the race worth investing in at this

point?

[brooklynite]

2. I put money in before the poll came out.

I never said I wouldn't invest; I said I'd evaluate the race in comparison with the races in play.

[Demsrule86]

3. I am glad to hear that because despite my snark at times, I do value your opinion in political

matters. Working on Ohio now...it is pretty close but still up in the air...could go either way.

[brooklynite]

5. Spoke to Sherrod Brown last week...

He thinks Ryan is a TOSS-UP/LEAN-R, and Whaley is still a LIKELY-R.

[Demsrule86]

14. That is what I think too...However, I am hoping that Roe might have some affect. Also, the GOTV

is going to be statewide in getting out the vote. This year we are going into rural /small town areas which are pretty red...there are Democrats in these areas who don't vote regularly and we are hoping to get them out and to peel away votes from independent and/ or Republican women concerned about Roe and contraception.

I realized with Georgia that if you can lower the percentages even in red states, you can peel off enough votes to win. That is how Biden won Georgia. I used to live there and know the area so I did phone calls...my sister was involved as well... I have lived in so many places so sometimes I will make calls or do what I can in areas where I could make a difference since I lived there at some point.

[Funtatlaguy]

4. Would love to hear your thoughts on these Senate races.

Penn
Wisconsin
Ohio
N.Carolina
Florida
Iowa
Georgia
Arizona
Nevada

[brooklynite]

6. Here...

Pennsylvania

Our best chance for a pick-up, but won't be easy. Dr. Oz is neither a "scary" Republican nor an overt MAGA election denier. And I remain concerned about Fetterman's health going into the fall campaign period. Will be supported by likely Shapiro win over Mastriano for Governor.

Wisconsin

Winnable depending on who gets the nomination. Evers and Kaul will help with turnout.

Ohio

As I said above, Sherrod tells me Ryan is doing well but it'll still be close.

North Carolina

Beasley is a good candidate and Gov. Cooper has built up a strong Party organization, but it'll still be a challenge.

Iowa

Despite Grassley's age, I don't see Democrats being terribly competitive. The State's dynamics have shifted a lot.

Georgia

This will be close all the way to November. I have a feeling Walker may fade when we get into the Fall election, but that fact that the Republicans picked their "sane" candidates for Gov and SoS won't help with turnout.

Arizona

I think Kelly will be okay. He'll have all the money he needs, and the election-deniers in AZ will scare middle of the road voters over to him as well.

New Mexico doesn't have a Senate race; did you mean Nevada?

[Funtatlaguy]

9. Yes, I meant Nevada. I corrected it. Thanks so much for the updates.

You left out Florida.
No chance to beat Rubio? Argh. I detest him.

[brooklynite]

10. I met with Gov Sisolak last week. He's sees challenges for the Democratic ticket

Lots of concern among voters about inflation, gas prices, etc. Party situation damaged by DSA takeover.

[Cosmocat]

13. Fetterman will outperform Shapiro

However it turns out.

[Demsrule86]

16. I think Oz is the worst candidate for PA as he is not from the area... I do believe that will

hurt him. He also has dual citizenship with Turkey and as he is running as a Republican...I think the fact that he is a Muslim will hurt him.

[Probatim]

22. I can't imagine Dr. Fraud beating Fetterman.

Fetterman seems to be liked across the state and he's hammering Fraud on his residency - and hasn't started on dual citizenship. I doubt he'll go after the Fraud's religion but other PACs might come in to do that "dirty" work.

Shapiro/Mastriano is another matter. There are a lot of angry white people lining up to support that crazy sonofabitch. If Shapiro takes the Rude Pundit's advice and starts calling that crazy motherf*cker a crazy motherf*cker, he should come out ahead in the end.

If not, PA will be in big trouble.

[Captain Zero]

21. I'm giving to Fetterman. A little here, a little there. For 4-5 months now

He will be an excellent Senator.
way better than this suck-ass Todd Young in Indiana.

I'm adopting
Fetterman as my Senator.

[JI7]

7. Fetterman should win this one . I would worry about Republican cheating more than perceptions about

his health in what could hurt us . We just need to make sure both Fetterman and SHapiro win .

[brooklynite]

20. Republicans don't control the State Government.

[FakeNoose]

8. I've already got my Fetterman yard sign in front of my house

I'll be receiving my Shapiro yard sign soon, and it will be on display also.

The voter registrations of R vs D won't change much in the next few months in Pennsylvania and that's OK. Both Fetterman and Shapiro will convince independents and "soft R's" in the coming months to come over from the dark side.

[JustAnotherGen]

11. Marshall Cohen says

Shapiro wins the Gubernatorial Race.

[Celerity]

18. Doug Mastriano as PA Governor would be a disaster for 2024. He's close to the most RW Rethug running

for Governor of any State in 2022. He is a complete ultra RW christofash.

[JustAnotherGen]

24. The SOS is the critical factor

Shapiro has got this.

[Deminpenn]

12. Reading the survey's actual data,

looks like Fetterman is outperforming Shapiro in central and NW (Erie and it S and E counties) PA. It doesn't surprise me that Fetterman would be appealing to these more rural, blue collar Dems.

[Cosmocat]

15. He will outperform Shapiro

However it turns out.

[modrepub]

17. PA Recent Voter Registration Numbers

Pie Chart:
https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/COIxu/3/

Interactive Map:
https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/5fUfC/1/

Yea, Republicans have narrowed the advantage Democrats have in registered voters but independents make up a sizable portion voters in PA. The more rural areas outside of the Philadelphia and Lehigh Valleys have generally skewed more Republican over the last few decades (demise of the rural Democrats so to speak) but I'd also add that those areas are loosing population versus the south central and south east part of the state; basically the only areas with increasing population are generally confined to areas southeast of I-78/I-81, with the State College area (Centre County) being one big exception (and maybe Butler County).

I think Fetterman will be an easier win. Oz has a lot of baggage and is gaff prone; like misspelling his residence on his candidacy filing. Fetterman probably plays better in the more rural areas than most Democrats would.

On the governor's side, I think Shapiro has a slight edge but the governor's mansion has historically changed hands after the incumbent becomes term limited. We'll see what impact the SC's overturning RvW has on turnout in the SE corner of the state. You'd think a strident pro life candidate would increase turnout among women in the SE but I'm not convinced they will show up to tip the scales.

[BumRushDaShow]

26. "but the governor's mansion has historically changed hands after the incumbent becomes term limited"

Except Tom Wolf blew that 50-year precedent out of the water by beating Tom Corbett (R), during Corbett's run for a 2nd term in 2014.

I have posted before that believe it or not, in his 2 Attorney General elections (2016 and 2020), Shapiro actually garnered more votes than both Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden -

2016




2020

[modrepub]

27. Very True, But

if gas prices and prices in general stay high through the summer, I think Democrats are going to be battling headwinds. I'm being pragmatic on this count. The party in power, whether actually responsible or not, always takes a hit for any economic problems.

I'm curious to see how well Shapiro does in the SE corner of the state. Lot of more moderate to liberal folks in this corner. I'm pretty sure most would not vote for someone as right wing as the Republicans have nominated. Guess it depends on if Mastriano goes full throttle on the pro life/stolen election crap or just cries $5 gas every second. Right now the economy is voters most pressing problem. Not a good sign for Dems at the moment.

[BumRushDaShow]

28. Oh I know & regarding this - "I'm curious to see how well Shapiro does in the SE corner of the state

As a Fluffian, we all know who he is because before he ran for AG, Shapiro was a Montgomery County Commissioner for 5 years before he was sworn in as AG (where he broke the 2 (R) - 1 (D) stranglehold in 2011) -

Montgomery County Commissioner Shapiro hands chair role over to Arkoosh


Val Arkoosh takes the gavel from Josh Shapiro Thursday, Nov. 17, 2016, as she assumes the role of chairwoman of the Montgomery County Board of Commissioners.

By Kaitlyn Foti | PUBLISHED: November 17, 2016 at 1:40 p.m. | UPDATED: September 23, 2021 at 9:03 a.m.


NORRISTOWN >> For his last weeks as Montgomery County commissioner, Josh Shapiro will no longer serve as chairman. At the start of the Thursday board meeting, he stepped down from the role, and Vice Chairwoman Val Arkoosh took his place.

“I am so honored to become chair of this commission and intend to continue the tradition that has been established by this administration of working together, working collaboratively with an open, ethical, transparent government to continue to do all the good work that we’ve been doing for Montgomery County,” Arkoosh said.

After winning election for Pennsylvania attorney general, Shapiro said he felt it was appropriate to step down from the chairmanship in advance of resigning from the board in January.“I think it’s really prudent at this time to have the opportunity for a seamless transition during this period,” Shapiro said.

In two unanimous votes, Arkoosh was designated the new commissioner chair and Shapiro assumed her role as vice chair. Arkoosh led the majority of the meeting as chairwoman. Shapiro, who will be sworn in as attorney general in January, said he will remain on the board into the new year and then resign before he is sworn in.

(snip)

https://www.timesherald.com/2016/11/17/montgomery-county-commissioner-shapiro-hands-chair-role-over-to-arkoosh/

Before that, he was a state House Rep. in the same County (153rd legislative district) for 7 years -



There's a good article about him here - https://www.phillymag.com/news/2007/11/20/politics-cleaning-house-dec2007/

And Mastriano (as well as Scott Perry) are enemy #1 for the J6 Committee, so he may be in deep doo doo.

[Hulk]

19. Unbelievable that ANYONE could vote for either of those two repuKKKe clowns.

To see such close polls just re-assures me how sick this country is today.

[Sugarcoated]

23. Shapiro is running a great campaign

He's very smart, has exceptional political instincts. No skeletons in his closet, nothing to attack him on...it's fun to watch the social media cultists try to make something out of nothing. I haven't seen any Mastriano ads here in the Philly area, like he doesn't exist. I can't imagine the J6 hearings will enhance his numbers or chances. Fetterman is trolling Oz, also fun to watch. We have two top notch candidates.

[d_b]

25. I really dig Fetterman

If he wins I’d love to see him run from President someday.