538: The New National Congressional Map Is Biased Toward Republicans

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

Back in March, I started off an article with the sentence, “Congressional redistricting — the process of redrawing the nation’s 435 congressional districts to reflect the results of the 2020 census — is not quite finished, but it’s getting darn close.” Clearly, I jinxed it: Since then, the national redistricting landscape has changed substantially, thanks to a new Republican-drawn plan in Florida and a court-ordered remap of New York.

Moreover, it’s taken the 2021-22 redistricting cycle from a clear win for Democrats to something far more ambiguous — perhaps best described as the preservation of a Republican-leaning status quo. And a ruling earlier this month striking down Louisiana’s congressional map is yet another reminder that the 2021-22 redistricting cycle ain’t over till it’s over — and, in fact, very likely won’t be over until well after 2022. That said, the map below is probably the one that will get used in this year’s congressional elections (with Louisiana pending, of course).



And as has been true for decades, this national congressional map is biased toward Republicans. Assuming Louisiana’s congressional map is reinstated upon appeal, the 2022 House map will feature 208 congressional districts with a FiveThirtyEight partisan lean of R+5 or redder, compared with 187 districts that have a FiveThirtyEight partisan lean of D+5 or bluer. Throw in the highly competitive seats, and 225 districts would be more Republican than the country as a whole, while 210 would be more Democratic. In other words, if the national House popular vote were perfectly tied, Republicans would theoretically win 225 seats and Democrats would win 210 (ignoring, for now, other factors like candidate quality).

By this measure, however, Democrats are actually in a slightly better position than they were before, having added a handful of Democratic-leaning seats. Under the old congressional lines (those used in the 2020 election), there were 208 congressional districts with partisan leans of R+5 or redder and 181 with partisan leans of D+5 or bluer. Counting swing seats, 230 seats were redder than the nation as a whole, while 205 seats were bluer.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-new-national-congressional-map-is-biased-toward-republicans/

[Clash City Rocker]

1. Let's hope they're as wrong about this as they've been about the NBA playoffs

[DemocratSinceBirth]

3. All the quantitative models gave the Celtics a big edge.

Presuming the Warriors win the odds makers were closer to the mark.

[Clash City Rocker]

6. They predicted before the season started that the Warriors would win 37 games

And finish as the 11th seed in the West. Maybe they should stick to politics, if that.

[SoonerPride]

2. "The system is rigged, that I can tell you."

The only truthful thing trump ever said, albeit unwittingly and completely out of context.

But he was right.

The system Is rigged and has been for decades.

We do not live in a representative Democracy.

We live in an apartheid state of minority tyranny over the majority.

[gab13by13]

4. Fuck 538

it used to be reliable, not any more. No one in his/her right mind could believe that Democrats made out with redistricting after Republicans got to redistrict 2 decades in a row.

Because of gerrymandering Democrats are going to have to flip seats now to keep the House, yes, it can be done, but gerrymandering made it harder. We need to overcome the rigged districts by voting in big numbers.

[W_HAMILTON]

5. It was based on facts -- not feelings.

Unfortunately, deep blue New York ended up "playing by the rules" and screwing over Democrats, while red states and purple states currently controlled by Republicans did as expected and said "fuck the rules" and railroaded their overly biased maps through (e.g., Florida).

Until the rules are fair throughout the country, blue states "doing what's right" and playing by the rules that Republicans refuse to abide by is going to only further our descent towards an anti-democratic (and anti-Democratic) fascist state.

[karynnj]

7. Looking at the old map graphic, it either overstates the Republicans or they greatly underperformed

in 2020 and 2018. My reason for saying that is that they should have won all the dark red and most light red and got half of the neutral white. As noted in their second paragraph, Democrats are in a somewhat better position under the new maps.

n reality, as they note candidate quality matters. The other thing that is tougher is that the incumbent gets blamed for anything bad happening. Biden is working hard to get inflation down -especially gas prices. All actions he takes will need time to work - and it is important NOT to change the fact that unemployment is very low.