Why can't we ramp oil back up to peak 2019-2020

[BettyonRed]

Last edited Wed Jun 15, 2022, 10:32 PM - Edit history (1)

Production numbers. We were over 12,000,000 barrels a day and reached just under 13,000,000 barrels a day in nov 2019 through February of 2020. Gas prices at my station were up again today. This pricing can’t be sustainable.

[Frasier Balzov]

1. Twelve thousand thousand?

In other words 12 million b/d.

[BettyonRed]

3. Oops....just under 13,000,000 barrels a day peak.

[uponit7771]

2. We're already over 12 million a day an reached that in Feb, its not US production its OPEC IINM

https://www.macrotrends.net/2562/us-crude-oil-production-historical-chart

[BettyonRed]

4. In February we produced 11,306,000 barrels a day.

[uponit7771]

6. I don't see Apr, May, Jun numbers but its not US that is historically underproducing its OPEC

https://www.wsj.com/articles/opec-oil-output-falls-in-may-adding-to-pressure-on-cartel-11655210338

[BettyonRed]

9. It's the EIA that publishes US production and we are down from peak

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MCRFPUS2&f=M

[Ferrets are Cool]

5. It has nothing to do with production. It has to do with greed.

[maxsolomon]

14. It has to do with the speculation on a commodity

where a war and sanctions with no end in sight is impacting global supply.

RBOB just dropped

[onecaliberal]

7. Record oil profits are to blame. We don't need more oil.

[msongs]

8. maybe prohibit the export of oil and make its gasoline products sellable only here nt

[BettyonRed]

10. The export ban was lifted in 2015. Maybe that is the answer

Although we are exporting to EU right now to help cover.

[uponit7771]

11. +1,

[Amishman]

12. Lead time and infrastructure are big factors, plus refining capacity is a big problem

Takes months or years to bring new oil fields online, which is far faster than the timeline a generation ago. In particular, getting the oil to refineries is a challenge. Rail and trucking is high risk, high expense, and can be a bottleneck. Pipelines have their own negatives plus the take years.

The oil market crash during the pandemic caused a pullback in oil companies investing in new wells and fields. The projects done the would normally be coming online now, replacing much older wells that are dropping off in terms of output. Small fracked shale oil wells are much faster to build (hence years not decades for new capacity) but they also drop off much faster.

Another factor is refining capacity. Increasing oil production doesn't help near as much if we cannot make into anything useful. Over the past few years, more refineries capacity has closed than been added. The facilities closed were often old and/or had environmental issues - but they were not replaced.

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pnp_unc_dcu_nus_m.htm

March refining statistics showed total capacity of 17.9 million bpd. Of that 17.7 was active - which is really good given the amount of maintenance and downtime involved in that industry.

To give a little context, in 2019 total capacity was 18.8 million bpd. We lost over a million barrels of refining capability in the past three years.

[Fla Dem]

19. Oil and gas companies have been sitting on unused leases.

Article from March, but still relevant.

As war rages in Ukraine and debate over drilling on American public lands is once again in the news, a new dashboard from the Center for Western Priorities highlights the hypocrisy of the oil industry’s push to throw even more public lands open to drilling. Combined, the oil and gas industry holds leases to more than 25 million acres of publicly-owned minerals, roughly half of which sit unused. Companies now hold more than 9,000 approved, but unused, drilling permits on national public lands, all of which could be put to use today. Further, oil production on public lands is near all time highs, despite industry claims that the Biden administration has suppressed domestic production.

https://westernpriorities.org/2022/03/by-the-numbers-oil-industry-awash-in-permits-leases-while-pushing-for-more-drilling%EF%BF%BC/

[Amishman]

21. That article leaves out several critical factors

They do not mention what those unused lands have in terms of suspected or proven reserves, and what the cost of production would be for those reserves. Also the logistics of those leases for getting production to market. That is key information to assess if they are acting in good faith or not.

[dawg]

13. Remember back when Covid first hit and oil futures fell to below zero?

That scared the shit out of people. Who would want to start a new oil and gas project in that environment?

In time, markets will adjust and we'll surpass the prior peaks. But it can't happen overnight and there isn't much we can do to speed things up.

[Calculating]

17. Huh

Strange response to this thread

[BettyonRed]

18. Mom?

[Emile]

16. There is more than enough oil, it's Predatory Capitalism speculating the

markets and greed.

[Gidney N Cloyd]

20. Some of the excuses for high gas prices are ringing as hollow as excuses for not controlling guns.

[oioioi]

22. Why can't we use less fossil fuel? This level of consumption can't be sustainable.