Gen. Mark Hertling: It ain't just Ukraine.

[Tomconroy]

Important thread. Putin has told the world what he is doing. For some strange reason some people, including leaders in the west, choose not to believe him.

Link to tweet

[Lovie777]

1. I think people who have been following Ukraine and Putin's desire to put the USSR . . .

back together again by any means, know Putin is evil enough to try this. He doesn't care about life at all.

[Best_man23]

4. I've told several people if Russia succeeds in its Ukraine Campaign

The Baltic states (Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia) are likely next. I could see Putin targeting them even before hitting Finland.

[Cheezoholic]

2. Kalinigrad is the scariest part of this Russian crime

The Suwalki corridor could very well end up a flash point for an expanded war between NATO and Russia. I would not be surprised to see Belarus take action there with Russian backing. Many strategists pointed early on the small Suwalki corridor could very well lead to the big war. Scary stuff

[LudwigPastorius]

15. The question now is,...

would Russia come to the aid of Belarus if NATO stomped them? ...for there would certainly be a NATO response if Russia's proxy attacked Lithuanian territory.

Do Russia and Belarus have the same kind of explicit mutual defense pact that the NATO members have, or would Putin throw them under the avtobus?

[Kid Berwyn]

3. Gangster Putin has to act to keep in power.

And World War III.

[FakeNoose]

5. You guys don't get it - these are NATO countries

Europe - at least the NATO countries which is most of them - will take over at that point. We don't need to be cops to the entire world. In the case of Europe, they'd prefer if we didn't step in. They'll be very happy to crush Pootie's balls on their own turf. We'll stand by and cheer them on.

[TomSlick]

7. Perhaps.

The question is not whether NATO would defend the Baltic states but whether Putin believes it would.

Putin could reasonably calculate that Germany will continue to resist action against Russia due to its energy dependence. Putin could also reasonably calculate that popular opinion in the US would not support war against Russia to defend nations that most Americans could not find on a map.

[James48]

12. I think you are the one who doesn't get it.

Lithuania has small forces. Poland and Germany are close by, but both of those nations are hardly a match for Russia’s capabilities. Germany in particular has shrunk its military forces to a tiny fraction of what it was back during the Cold War.

During the Cold War, West Germany’s military was 495,000 strong, plus 170,000 civilians. Today, Germany’s Army totals just 62,000 soldiers, and total Land, air and Sea strength is just 183,000.

Russia has more soldiers today inside Ukraine, than Germany has in its entire Army. And Russia hasn’t deployed most of its strength- which WOULD be able to attack to defend Kaliningrad.

If fighting breaks out , and Article 5 is invoked, it’s going to take the combined strength of all NATO nations to counter Russia’s attack. And there isn’t a good way to deal with the Russian enclave- NATO will have to isolate it, and Russia will attempt to break the blockade. And if Russia decides to go nuclear, all heck is going to go up in flames.

It won’t be European countries by themselves- every NATO country - including the USA and Canada will be heavily involved.

[KPN]

17. I may be wrong, but isn't that what we did in the early

stages of WWII?

[Baked Potato]

6. I would guess this development is not a surprise to NATO,

nor the West. Lithuania is a staunch US ally and has declared Russia a “genocidal terrorist country.”

[KPN]

18. I agree.

[Igel]

8. "Chose."

He was perfectly clear 7 years ago, and pretty clear, if you listened, 15 or more years ago.

And it's not him. Russia was nibbling at Georgia before Putin. Russia was genociding and pounding the rubble before Putin. The only thing knew is that Putin has an ideology that can serve as an invisible, supporting framework for all the evil.

As for why the cruelty ... Those who were "in-group" were suddenly "out-group".

Take this as unverified and unreplicated, but the observed actions are fairly well established cross-culturally and cross-temporally.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2022/06/220616135231.htm

I note that years (decades) ago I read that the thing about humanity has been that, over the course of the last few thousand years, we've gotten to the point of including more and more diverse groups as "us" (and not "them&quot . Not clans or even tribes, but we find grounds for including others (and one important thing is that both sides *want* to be mutually inclusive, or one side wants in and the other accepts).

[EX500rider]

10. I don't think it's a true blockade

Lithuania is just refusing to allow rail connections from their country to there, Russia could still supply them by sea or air if they fly over the Baltic

[Botany]

11. None of this shit in the Ukraine* would be happening...

... now if we had stopped Putin in 2016 from installing TFG into the White House. McConnell, Ryan, McCarthy, Pence, Scalise, and lots of other GOP knew Russia was fucking with the elections and said nothing. And every republican** gave Putin/Trump a pass on international crimes and Russia's war on the people of Ukraine .
. See Impeachment # 1.

* or other places.

** except for Romney

[Evolve Dammit]

19. Don't forget Flynn, Manafort and the cabal using Ukraine as their playground.

[Botany]

23. Or that Flynn who Putin had flipped in 2013 didn't..

.... say shit as National Security Advisor as per a warning that Russia was going to invade Ukraine and take over the Crimea in 2014. President Obama fired him and then he went to Russia for about 4 months after which he went to work for the Trump campaign. A federal judge called him a traitor to his face from the bench.

And to this day Flynn shows up at "Faith and Freedom"
events and talks about patriotism as he is surrounded by American flags.

[Evolve Dammit]

24. Traitor.

[Shellback Squid]

14. "here", nothing is as believable as a misspelled sentance

lol...sentence

[BidenRocks]

16. Gotta call bullshit!

Typos?
Americans may here about ....
I hate sloppy!

[Evolve Dammit]

20. This is very disturbing and likely to escalate. How much of Belarus is pro-Putin?

I know it is under Russian control, but know nothing of the people and their leanings.

[pecosbob]

21. I never believed it was "just Ukraine"

Russia's got a sizable force of nukes sitting on top of Iskander and Kalibr missiles stashed in Kaliningrad. A blockade by Lithuania is an escalation, but I don't believe Germany would acquiesce to an Article 5 violation by Russia.

[Tomconroy]

22. As far as NATO goes: The US and the UK are NATOs army.

Period.