BTRTN, the Midterms: A Close Look at the House
Born to Run the Numbers provides its latest update on the midterm elections, this time focusing on the House of Representatives.
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2022/06/btrtn-midterms-close-look-at-house.html
Excerpts: "Once again it is time for that ritual of American politics, the evisceration of a first-term president in his (yes, all 'his' so far) first midterms. Joe Biden seems right on course to suffer the fate of so many of his predecessors, to lose big in the House of Representatives on November 8, 2022. Barring some truly monumental change of fortune, Biden will likely lose his very thin Democratic majority in the House and quite a few more seats beyond that...
"...while all 435 House seats are up for reelection (as they are, of course, every two years), given the advanced state of the fine art of gerrymandering, only 88 races have any chance at all of being truly contested. More realistically, only 55 races, as of now, appear to be truly 'in play. Most districts have been sculpted into ungainly salamander shapes that all but guarantee Blue or Red status. Of those 55 in which it remains truly possible for either party to win, the Democrats hold 42. There are three other seats that they are almost guaranteed to lose (not included in either the 55 or the 88). So the very worst the Democrats could do is to lose all 45 of those seats and not flip any current GOP seats...We at BTRTN don’t envision that kind of bloodbath, at least not at this point in time...
"Why is this important? Apart from simply keeping score, these assessments assist readers/volunteers to make informed judgments on where to spend their time and money in the electoral process to the best advantage. Political donors and volunteers would do well to focus on races that are truly competitive and can be swayed with the precious resources that time and money represent. Giving $50 to a favored congressperson who is running 80/20 over his opponent is not a good use of resource."
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