Last A rated Biden approval poll, pre-Dobbs.

[speak easy]

Last edited Mon Jun 27, 2022, 10:18 AM - Edit history (2)

https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/biden-approval-0624/

EDIT: The first A rated poll after Dobbs reports 40% approval, 53% disapproval.
Marist has a 1% Republican bias, per 538.
https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/npr-pbs-newshour-marist-national-poll-the-overturning-of-roe-v-wade-june-2022/

[emulatorloo]

1. Too bad most media doesn't report facts. They just regurgitate untrue GOP talking points.

[Raven123]

2. A 1.44% response rate may be the most enlightening stat in this report

[bucolic_frolic]

3. You are now breeding stock required to give birth in 2023.

How is Joe doing now?

When is the shoe on the other foot? They force us to give birth, they meddle in our bodies and lives ... when do we return the pleasure?

[JohnSJ]

4. The TrafalgarGroup is a right-wing pollster founded by Robert Cahaly who was a political consultant

for Republican Party candidates

They pride themselves because they predicted the trump win in 2016, saying they were able to extract that from the so-called "shy-trump voter"

538 rates them as C-

and their subsequent polling has demonstrated that.

In 2018 they predicated Kemp would win by at least 12 points. The actually resuts were winning by less than two points.

They predicted that trump would win the 2020 election easily, winning Arizona, FLorida, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania.

They also missed the 2021 Georgia Senate runoff elections

"Trafalgar Group adjusts its polls for a "social desirability bias" effect, the hypothesized tendency of some voters to calibrate their responses to polls towards what they believe the survey taker would like to hear.[4][5][6] It does this by not only asking respondents how they plan to vote, but also how they think their neighbors might vote.[6] Former Democratic Party strategist Ed Kilgore, in New York Magazine in July 2020, criticized Trafalgar's approach, writing, "The Shy Trump Voter may not be entirely a myth, but they're not numerous enough to fill a Trump rally, much less change an election result or rebut a poll."[7] Responding to criticism of Trafalgar's polling methods and its lack of transparency about its methods, Cahaly said in November 2020, "I think we’ve developed something that’s very different from what other people do, and I really am not interested in telling people how we do it. Just judge us by whether we get it right."[8]"

They are about as accurate as Zogby, which isn't very accurate.

The reason he got 2016 right wasn't because of his "remarkable" polling methodology, by Comey

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trafalgar_Group

[speak easy]

5. 538 rates them as A- with a 2% Republican bias.

The previous A rated poll before that, Quinnipiac turned in similar numbers - 33% approval, 57% dissaproval.

[JohnSJ]

7. Before 2020 538 gave them a C-. In April 2021 they gave them an A-, in spite of their dismal pollin

in 2018 and 2020

Take it anyway you want, but I will trust Quinnipiac over Trafalgar because of their methodology, and republican background:

"Trafalgar Group adjusts its polls for a "social desirability bias" effect, the hypothesized tendency of some voters to calibrate their responses to polls towards what they believe the survey taker would like to hear.[4][5][6] It does this by not only asking respondents how they plan to vote, but also how they think their neighbors might vote.[6] Former Democratic Party strategist Ed Kilgore, in New York Magazine in July 2020, criticized Trafalgar's approach, writing, "The Shy Trump Voter may not be entirely a myth, but they're not numerous enough to fill a Trump rally, much less change an election result or rebut a poll."[7] Responding to criticism of Trafalgar's polling methods and its lack of transparency about its methods, Cahaly said in November 2020, "I think we’ve developed something that’s very different from what other people do, and I really am not interested in telling people how we do it. Just judge us by whether we get it right."[8]"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trafalgar_Group

[speak easy]

9. I've updated the OP to include the new Marist Poll

[JohnSJ]

11. I was just giving my impression of that pollster. I don't think any of us here are surprised at

Biden’s low polling

What will be interesting is using this as a baseline to see if there will be any effect from the SC decisions on the poll numbers for both the midterms and Biden

What is also interesting is Fox polls historically have been very accurate
Thanks

[speak easy]

14. Some Dem opinion is recursive

ie - disapproval at how the President is perceived to be faring politically. cf Trumpers, who could not give a rats.

[JohnSJ]

15. Your analysis of that is spot on. Democrats will definitely be self-critical, while as you said

trumpers, and most republicans don’t give a “rats”

[MichMan]

6. The pollsters are going to look incompetent when Dems win the midterms in a landslide

[onecaliberal]

8. Nazi pollster

[Yoyoyo77]

10. In the same poll the generic has Dems ahead 47-41 percent. A 10 point swing from their last poll!!!

[PortTack]

12. Trafalgor...you're kidding right? One of the most right leaning pollsters out there

[speak easy]

13. A- rated at 538. But how about Quinnipiac 1 week earlier A: 33% DA: 57%