Betting markets on the Senate, but not House, have moved in our favor - link

[Alhena]

since the Roe reversal. What's the thinking there? That people associate the Senate with judges, but not so much the House?

https://www.predictit.org/markets/search?query=Midterms2022

[BlueGreenLady]

1. One reason, IMHO, is that Representative seats

are more gerrymandered than Senate seats. For instance, my state has 2 senators, but 5 Representatives. Our Democratic Representative, Axne, is being forced to run in a new red district where it will be hard for her to win. The GOP has really divided up this red state in their favor.

[GregariousGroundhog]

3. FiveThirtyEight ran a piece sometime back around partisan bias in the proposed new House maps

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-house-maps-republican-bias-will-plummet-in-2022-because-of-gerrymandering/

Following redistricting, the number of districts where the partisan lean was five percentage points or more in Democrats favor increased by 11, from 164 to 175. The number of districts where the partisan lean was five percentage points or more in Republicans favor decreased by six from 187 to 181.

At the time the article was published (March 31), FiveThirtyEight mentioned that the national political environment favored Republicans, but that Democrats will lose fewer seats compared to if redistricting had not occurred.

[FBaggins]

2. The senate (this year) is much more sensitive to small shifts

There are too many House seats in danger for one week’s news to sway things that much. But one or two senate seats might make the difference

[usonian]

4. 54 or more!

Makes me happy.

[Polybius]

5. It favors Republicans 68 to 34

That's in our favor?