'I actually think Romney's going 2 win this thing' says delusional freeper, smarter freeper responds

[Liberal_in_LA]

Posted on Thursday, November 01, 2012 12:10:36 PM by vonkayel

Ok...I'm a recovering pessimist. I actually think Romney's going to win this thing, and possibly win it by a larger margin than most pollsters and pundits are predicting. The national election seems to have stabilized into a 50-47 pattern that is unlikely to change barring some major news event or scandal over the weekend.

But I still have a little bit of Eeyore in me, and there are three things that worry me:

1. Nate Silver This whiny turd with his hyperconfident "78.9 chance Obama wins" line is the biggest burr in my saddle. Unlike many, I'm not that impressed with his 2008 predictions. I think he was fed internal data by the O campaign. What I don't understand is why he would risk his entire professional reputation on such seemingly outlanding claims in 2012. Bizzarre.

2. Ohio I keep expecting the Ohio polls to break massively toward Romney, but it hasn't happened. I understand that there are flaws in the methodology and sampling, but it still makes me nervous.

3. Intrade This is probably the most ridiculous of my worries. Intrade has been notoriously wrong in the past (see: Supreme Court to Overturn Obamacare = 95%). Still, the fact that there has been practialy no erosion in the Obama futures bothers me.

All things considered, I would MUCH rather be in our shoes than the Democrats. But, for the sake of the unreformed Eeyores lurking on FR, could someone please demolish these three nagging concerns?

-----------
To vonkayel:

#2 is real. I am on the ground in Warren county, and I am telling you there is nowhere near the voter enthusiasm for the GOP there was in 2004 and 2008. Those who say unprecedented enthusiasm is everywhere are smoking crack. Average joes are not impressed with either of these guys. And Ryan does not have anywhere the reach and charisma of Palin to get to the working class voter.

Now there is also nowhere near the enthusiasm for Obama either, and GOP voters are more habitual voters, Romney might be OK.

But polls are polls, and the lesson is that they are not often wrong. Sometimes yes, but not often. And the polls are telling us that Romney will underperform the national average in OH.

So prepare yourself for four more years of Obama, a solidly GOP house and a split almost down the middle senate.

25 posted on Thursday, November 01, 2012 12:53:35 PM by delapaz

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/2953334/posts

[warrior1]

1. Lets take the house back

Give them dirt to chew on for four years.

[ProudProgressiveNow]

2. Then change the filibuster rules. nt

[ToxMarz]

5. Or the other way around

We may have to change the filibuster rules, then change the house.

[dumbledork]

21. Um, filibusters are done in the Senate, not the House.

Sometimes they are a good thing.
(Mr. Smith goes to Wash)

[ProudProgressiveNow]

22. Sorry if I was not clear, I meant take the house,

Then change the filibuster in the Senate. It would be fruitless to do so if the Reps have the house, they can still block legislation.

[FSogol]

3. That's my dream. Democratic majority everywhere.

[jmowreader]

17. I think there's a good chance we will

The teabaggers sold themselves as job creating dervishes; their reality includes repeated attempts to repeal HCR, lots of social stuff, over 200 filibustered bills and no real attempt to fix anything. I think they've worn out their welcome.

They have two problems that may prove insurmountable. The first is their candidate, who no one likes. Remember in 2000 Bush won in part on likability. Bush was kind of a fun person...he's the kind of guy who would get fried then jump his dirt bike over the ponds on his property to entertain his friends, and you'd party at his place because he'd always have enough beer. Not presidential by a long shot, but fun. Romney is the kind of guy who would throw a beer bash with one beer apiece and The Carpenters on the stereo. No one trusts the guy either; when he claims he's going to do a tax cut that won't cut rich people's taxes, you really have to wonder why he's doing it...especially since every analyst outside his campaign thinks it will lower rich people's taxes, destroy the middle class and blow a hole in the economy that can't be plugged. Bush would call it hitting the trifecta.

The other problem: the Democrats and unaffiliated voters are sick of their shit and are turning out in numbers that require Republican-attracting measures, like Idaho's right-to-hunt amendment, to be added to ballots nationwide. I am not worried about electronic ballot tampering because it's easier-and legal-to put red meat on the ballot instead.

[DrummerMan]

4. I've been spending time over there to try to understand them

and I'm sickened by what I read. I've never encountered a more delusional, angry, racist, and ignorant group of human beings. They have these gigantic logical disconnects in their thinking (if you can call it that). I've seen Obama referred to as a marxist, communist, fascist Muslim. Never mind these things are mutually exclusive and very, very different. They claim he's a lazy, do-nothing useless leader, then turn right around and proclaim how he's enacted all these policies that will enslave America. You can't have it both ways, kids. He's one or the other.

That response you hi-lighted is about the most cogent thing I've read there. At least someone over there has some grasp on reality!

The delusion, paranoia, and anger there is truly frightening.

[Liberal_in_LA]

7. I've seen other reasonable posts over there. Sprinkled among the rabid hate, a few small voices

reply with common sense. I think too many common sense posts gets them tossed though

[DrummerMan]

9. It wouldn't surprise me.

I'd love to read some serious analysis by an actual accredited mental health professional on how these people get like this, because their lack of rationality and level of anger seems really mentally unbalanced.

Any good books you can recommend?

[progressivebydesign]

13. I remember reading about a syndrome called "angry old man" syndrome.

I know, it sounds fake. But there was some talk around 10 years ago about this condition that is a bit of anger and paranoia. Usually strikes white men i their 50s and 60s, usually less educated, and stems from sort of a mid-life crisis and frustration that they haven't gotten what they wanted in life. So they lash out in anger and rage at the people they think are responsible. I know there must be an official term for it.. but I recall reading about it in a psychology magazine. Because they are low info people, they are easily led by Fox News and Rush. In fact those influences have really shaped the angry old men you see on FR. It's unprecedented to have that sort of reach and complete disinformation disguised as news -- but it plays well to those guys.

If I can find some info officially, I will post here. wish I'd saved the links.

[DrummerMan]

19. They all sound about 14, mentally, though!

[TrogL]

14. Here you go

The Authoritarians

[DrummerMan]

16. Thank you!

That looks interesting. I will give it a read. And from Winnipeg, no less. Go Blue Bombers!

[ecstatic]

6. I think the "delusional freeper" is actually a reverse troll

How could he be serious when every source he cited supports an Obama win? If he's serious, then he truly is delusional. LOL

[phleshdef]

11. "Smarter freeper" might've been a troll too, he or she was way too in touch with reality.

[Initech]

8. Anyone who says "2" instead of "to" is not meant to be taken seriously especially politically.

Another low information voter.

[MiniMe]

12. One of the responding freepers sounds pretty sure about things

To: vonkayel
Knock off the worrying!
Nine out of ten people called by pollsters are refusing to respond.

Among the ten percent who do respond to pollster questions, Romney is now leading slightly, and comfortably enough not to worry about the vote fraud overcoming his lead.

Among the ninety percent who refuse to respond to pollster questions, 97.53% of them are tack-spitting outraged at Obama, Pelosi, Reid, the MSM, and every mind-numbingly stupid person who ever voted for any of this idiocy, such that the election day results will be a coast-to-coast Republican sweep that will dwarf 2010 and 1994.

Romney is going to win by twenty gazillion in the popular vote, and will take 117% of the electoral vote.

27 posted on Thu Nov 01 2012 15:58:16 GMT-0400 (Eastern Daylight Time) by meadsjn

[AverageJoe90]

15. IMHO, this sounds like it might have been sarcastic. n/t

[ananda]

18. A solidly GOP house?

Oh please god NO!

[lindysalsagal]

20. Somebody recruit that guy for DU.

He's too smart for them.

[GDoyle]

23. The First Guy Is Funny

Obama campaign fed Nate Silver internals in 2008....so what? Did they cut him off in 2012?