GOP Favored to Take House, But Not Senate

[applegrove]

GOP Favored to Take House, But Not Senate

June 30, 2022 at 10:52 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 104 Comments

https://politicalwire.com/2022/06/30/gop-favored-to-take-house-but-not-senate/

"SNIP......

Nate Silver: “Republicans are substantial favorites to take over the U.S. House of Representatives following this November’s midterm elections, but the U.S. Senate is much more competitive, according to FiveThirtyEight’s 2022 midterm election forecast, which launched today.”

“Democrats are also favored to hang on to the governorships in a trio of swing states in the Rust Belt — Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan — although they are significant underdogs to win high-profile gubernatorial races in Georgia and Texas against Republican incumbents.”

......SNIP"

[mopinko]

1. i thought kemp and abrams were almost even.

[applegrove]

3. I posted that yesterday. Yes I thought so too.

[spanone]

4. That was reported on msnbc this morning....

[brooklynite]

21. Per their podcast, the model was run just before the Quinnipiac poll was released.

[OrlandoDem2]

2. We will prove Nate Silver wrong with respect to the House!

And I think Stacey and Beto can also win!!

[agingdem]

10. Yes!

I've had it with pollsters like Nate Silver...we live in unprecedented times..the old trends no longer exist...

[PortTack]

13. 538 has shown they are not doing credible polling..the last 3 election cycles have proved this.

Their dismal polling methodology has not changed and until it does their polls are worthless.

Generic ballot polls, 3 of them out this week show Dems with substantial leads. Yes, yes it’s a poll, but 3 of them, saying the same thing…more reliable

[PatSeg]

19. Yes, times have changed a whole lot

and it is very difficult to get accurate polling results these days. Even if people have landline phones, most of them rarely answer them if they don't recognize the caller. I can't take polling results seriously anymore.

[PTWB]

16. Yeah they've been consistently wrong

All the polling showed Trump and the GOP performing poorly and in reality the GOP beat the polls in almost every race, even the ones they lost.

I have zero use for unreliable polling.

We just have to focus on GOTV!

[ultralite001]

5. Time to fix this...

Totally Blue...
in 2022...

That is all...

[NoMoreRepugs]

6. J6 committee findings may have something to do with the outcomes this fall Mr Silver.

[mopinko]

7. yup

[jimfields33]

8. All forecasts are predictions for if the election were today.

[Lovie777]

9. The fucked up decisions from US SC asshole 6 . . .

is pissing Americans off.

[budkin]

11. Not the House either after Roe

I'll put money on it.

[pstokely]

15. gerrymandering alone might hand the GQP the house

but how many polls have been taken in the past week? I assume he's factoring in polls taken before last Friday

[JCMach1]

18. Gerrymandering has actually favored D's per 538

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-house-maps-republican-bias-will-plummet-in-2022-because-of-gerrymandering/

[genxlib]

24. Couple of things

I think that is net. It is less skewed than it was but still skewed.

Second, that was before the court blew up New York and let a judge redraw the districts. Things are worse now than they were then.

[JCMach1]

25. Only point I take is reapportionment didn't do much to the chances

At worst it's a push...

So things hinge on political perceptions. Most of Biden's agenda, Build Back Better for instance, won't make huge differences one way or another in an almost full employment environment.

Other stuff, like purging the Executive BRANCH of Trump shite, don't really make easy sound bites, or arguments.

Consequently, Biden has a big messaging problem.

Roe gets.the base motivated, but we need a bit more than just that to keep control.

Early days, let's see what happens.

[budkin]

12. Also, F*** Nate Silver

Seriously.

[pstokely]

14. how many polls have been taken in the past week?

?

[Vinca]

17. Hard to imagine that happening after the Roe decision.

[JCMach1]

20. And way too early to take temperature this cycle until maybe September...

Polls are going to be whack even then.

[Deminpenn]

22. Nate Silver should stick to fantasy baseball

Political forecasting is not the same as "sabermetrics".

[FloridaBlues]

23. Nate Silver trying to make himself relevant again.

[BSdetect]

26. Now the media will run with this crap till November. Keep anxiety high for ratings.

Meanwhile GOTV is essential.