Texas Governor's race poll (CBS), and other Texas issues polled

[Polybius]

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/law-enforcement-could-have-done-more-to-stop-uvalde-shooting-opinion-poll-2022-06-30/

[TexasTowelie]

1. So the first couple days of the poll were prior to the SCOTUS decision on Roe v. Wade.

It will be interesting to monitor subsequent polls for any movement. Still, Abbott cannot feel comfortable with this close of a contest and plenty of time for Beto to gain more momentum.

[Polybius]

10. That is true

I'm more curious as to how polls will look a month after Dobbs.

[Samrob]

12. Won't change much because most border Hispanics are mostly anti-abortion and pro GOP.

Go figure. Religion has ruined the minds of many.

[LonePirate]

2. How do they think his response to Uvalde was good. How?

Are people shifting blame to the Uvalde police instead?

I’m also curious how heavily Republican skewed this poll was.

[Polybius]

4. Most think his response was bad

Still, 45% think it was good which is crazy.

[BannonsLiver]

5. It's a pretty good reflection of Texas.

8 pt spread seems about right. It’s an extremely RW state, folks. This is about as good as it gets in the year 2022.

[JohnSJ]

3. Pathetic

[gratuitous]

6. No offense to any individual Texan

But what in the ever-lovin' blue-eyed fuck is wrong with Texas?

[PortTack]

8. Took the words right out of my mouth!

[Mariana]

13. Religion, mostly. nt.

[RANDYWILDMAN]

7. New poll 45% of Texans polled are bat shit crazy !

As long as Abbott is liberal on guns and tough on LGBTQ+ community , he is golden.

[Deminpenn]

9. Take the Likely Voter models with a grain of salt

The LV models have been kind of hit and miss lately.

[former9thward]

11. They are far better than the Registered Voters polls.

Which are the majority of polls right now. RV don't vote. LV do vote.

[Deminpenn]

14. Depends on who the pollster thinks is a "likely voter"

The LV polls were wrong in 2016 because a lot of people considered not to be LVs showed up to vote.

Trafalger(sp?) got it right because their model happened to catch and count these voters, but their record hasn't been good since.

Even the pollsters admit their LV models are problematic. If you use a screen that counts voters who vote consistently, your model might skew older and more conservative. If you use enthusiasm, your LVs could be skewed by people who say they are enthusiastic to vote, but aren't. RV polls where all the data is shown are better for analysis imho.

[JCMach1]

15. Kinda matches my thoughts on the race. Abbott is under water

Last edited Sat Jul 2, 2022, 07:00 PM - Edit history (1)

And BETO sits somewhere in the 40's... Probably 45+... Making it a winnable race if things fall BETO's way. Still less than 25% chance of winning though.

Just my take

[Deminpenn]

16. Texas DUers know Texas

Will always defer to them.