Ali Velshi earlier this morning showed a new poll that had Trump beating Biden 44-39.

[Elwood P Dowd]

Poll was just released, so it must have been taken after the latest J-6 Committee hearings. I was cooking and didn't catch which poll he was talking about. Did any of you DU poll gurus catch that?

[Hav]

1. Waste of money to conduct these irrelevant polls now

and waste of energy to be bothered about it as frustrating as it is that so many are deplorables. Right now, only the midterms matter and a lot can happen until 2024.

[DFW]

2. Maybe it's the same poll that Trump was using when he found out he had won the election

You know, that poll that showed that Mark Kelly, Raphael Warnock, and Jon Ossoff all lost their elections for the US Senate.

[greymattermom]

3. Jon Ossoff

isn't running. His term is 6 years. Warnock is running.

[phylny]

4. The poll in 2020

when they were all running.

[DFW]

5. I wasn't talking about the midterms.

I was talking about the last election.

[Elwood P Dowd]

6. Just found it. Poll is from Emerson College.

Never heard of them.

[Abnredleg]

7. They're a reputable poller /NT

[Demsrule86]

17. No they are not.

[womanofthehills]

50. FiveThirtyEight ranked Emerson as 4 th best pollster on 2020

2020
Emerson Polling released battleground state polls in Arizona, North Carolina, Minnesota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin.[1]

FiveThirtyEight ranked Emerson College as the fourth-best pollster of the 2020 presidential primaries based on the average error of polls in the final 21 days of the election.[3] According to an analysis of 165 polls, FiveThirtyEight also gave Emerson an overall grade of A- on May 19, 2020.[4].
https://ballotpedia.org/Emerson_College_Polling

[Demsrule86]

53. Did you look at the sample? And as other have pointed out, it is way to far in the future for

this poll to indicate anything. I wonder why you posted honestly. What is the point? I looked at the poll as carefully as possible given they post very little information...number one they have changed their polling to include a new "online panel" and of course the usual calling of landlines which I find ridiculous. They show very little about their methodology and their big success was in 18...everyone predicted a Democratic sweep. They post nothing about their sample and who is included or not included...not much of anything about their current polling methods so I consider all these things and call Bullshit on this poll.

[Cheezoholic]

11. Its important to note

That organizations that grade these pollsters usually use the polls accuracy (among other things) for polls taken within 30 days of an election. For instance 538 gives Emerson an A rating with a 75% accuracy rate within 21 days of an election. Polls should always be taken with a rock of salt no matter what. Polls are most valuable for spotting trends as I stated below. Especially this far out.

[lapucelle]

8. The usual suspects in the media are flogging this poll. It serves to depress Democratic support

for President Biden, who apparently isn't waving his magic wand enough.

[karynnj]

9. I wonder how they phrased the question

Both men are near 100% known and opposites - yet there is 17 percent undecided? This is very surprising if this were a real head to head contest.

[Cheezoholic]

10. I dont put a lot of weight in actual poll numbers but

you can spot trends with them. The trends up on 538 over the last couple weeks point to one thing. In the words of Carville its the economy.

And I can tell you it is and has been the number one topic locally for the last month. If something doesn't get done to get prices down soon (yes I'm aware only so much a pres can do) the Dems are gonna have a tough road in Nov. Ever since prices started going up the trend has gone to repukes on general ballot polls and Biden's favorable ratings have plummeted. The problem is, even with Roe, the 1/6 hearings, those trends aren't moving much. Its the damn economy. And repukes are playing it like a fiddle saying all this other stuff, 1/6, bitching about Roe, bitching about SCOTUS, bitching about elections all are the left trying to divert attention away from a sour economy. It's their favorite trick, because it works.

Also Fat Nixons approval ratings are just as bad as Biden's, but interestingly,, approval ratings for both parties are about the same but they are as low as Bidens and Fat Nixons.

To me all of that points to 2 things, the economy and an electorate that's getting fed up with politics. We live in a materialistic self centered society. This economy is going to kill us if something doesn't start to change. imho

[PortTack]

12. 3 separate generic ballot polls released earlier this week give Dems the lead with a margin of

5-7%. It was posted here on DU

[Cheezoholic]

19. I'm not picking polls

And yes there's been movement, a few fairly significant in some polls for Dems. But like weather forecasters use computer models, they don't use just one or two, they look for trends across the models to steer their forecasts. I like to look at overall trends across a lot of polls. Just me. I'm not forecasting Dems are going to lose. I was mearly interpreting trends in the polls. It's quite obvious as soon as prices started to rise there were steady gains by repukes in the generic ballot and it's been that way since the end of Feb. As I said my interpretation of that is mainly the economy, because 90% of the time that's the most important thing to Americans unfortunately. Can Roe and 1/6 have a beneficial effect for Dems? I certainly hope so but its not being reflected across most independent polls combined yet.

I'm also a little hesitant because I see so many posts here and pundits in the media saying Roe itself is going to be a repuke killer. I hope it is. But I also don't have that much faith in the American electorate that women's rights will override 5 dollar gas or 2 dollar cans of chicken noodle soup, outside of the women themselves. I just hope Dems use these to things we're going through and forget to address, with either political action or campaign messaging, what is normally the most important thing to the average American voter, their wallet. I'm in no way being a doomer gloomer, I'm just expressing my opinion and actually think the Dems can surprise even themselves in the midterms.

The positive just hasn't been reflected by much more than .5 point move in the overall polling so far. That could very well change by the end of next week or the following week as more post Roe polls get added to the pool, and the repuke trend could start to show sharp reversal. I certainly hope that's true. But I will still say, barring a miraculous wave of enlightenment across the electorate, the damn economy needs to be addressed sooner than later or it could be damaging to Dems prospects. We have enough to overcome with these slanted elections in the states, we don't need that ball and chain around our ankle..

[former9thward]

24. The six most recent are a mix.

Three have a R lead, two have a D lead and one is a tie.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2022-generic-congressional-vote-7361.html

[emmaverybo]

49. Honestly, how can the bad economic news, inflation and crashing stock market, change? I mean these

areas are how the media and the public measure the success or failure of our economy. The problem seems not fixable.

From Jack Waldebewolder, investment manager, on Linked In blog a brief summary of the problem:

Conventional wisdom is that fear of inflation and rising US and international interest rates are causing the problem. The problem is deeper. The war in Ukraine has created all sorts of distortions and problems in the world economy. These include high prices for oil, natural gas, and coal. We can add to this high prices for wheat and other grains as well as timber. The list could go on. We also have the potential of the Ukraine war escalating to World War III.

Then there are upcoming elections in Brazil and the US that have the potential for extreme political instability and social unrest. In my humble opinion, we are in the midst of a market collapse. Fortunately, real estate prices have not been affected yet.

My dear readers, please review your retirement funds and other investments. If you don't like what you see, please have a serious talk with your financial advisor and your accountant.



——————————————————

I don’t like what I see. Decided not to make any more investments for now to my “pathetic money” (as my father used to call his retirement) as it is fast draining though very conservatively invested and all in mutual funds. Past five years building. Now erosion!

No longer are predictions coming from the click bait sources, but many credible financial forecasters claim we will see, and are seeing, crash.

So I don’t know what this administration can do. But I know what we can. Support Dems and vocally! Push back against media barrage of unfair criticism of Biden and Dems. Some of the worst comes from Twitter and very likely originates with bad faith actors posing as liberals. Comment on editorials and news articles. WaPo is a major offender. Newsweek literally both sides with Dem leaning comments one day and extremists the next. The other day Newsweek featured “a poll” showing European Jean Q public hated Biden and world leaders had no faith in him. This on the heels of NATO expansion and what appears congenial and productive meetings.

Also of course we have to empower this administration/ the liberal agenda with GOTV 9and our votes, but we must become watchful of liberal media so-called and responsive as it is dooming us.

[wryter2000]

13. And yet

Almost 60% of Americans believe he should be changed with a crime. Something fishy there.

In any case, that choice is over 2 years away.

[halobeam]

15. I agree.. though they think he should be charged, they'd vote for him?? lol!

This little smilie is my grain of salt.

[TheFarseer]

16. The poll I saw said 48%

Basically Dems believe he should and Republicans say no. Big surprise.

[Polybius]

23. Polling on Trump is like 42% positive

Polling on Biden is like 39%. So perhaps those picking Trump don't like him, they just like him slightly more?

[Deminpenn]

14. I watch MSNBC, but understand that their programming

is meant to gin up fear and anxiety in their mostly D, liberal, progressive viewing audience. It's what keeps viewers tuning in.

[PortTack]

18. A reality check here on the accuracy of polling...spoiler alert... they aren't

Looking back:

McCain beats Obama

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/01/only_mccain_can_beat_obama.html

Romney beats Obama

https://www.politico.com/story/2013/11/mitt-romney-barack-obama-2012-election-poll-100044

HRC given 94% chance of winning against dotard….no need for a link here

Trump beats Biden

https://www.lifenews.com/2020/10/30/president-trump-will-shock-the-world-again-and-beat-joe-biden-here-are-reasons-why/

There dozens more examples..the polls are simply NOT accurate!

[Cheezoholic]

20. No they are not

And I wouldn't use public polls to forecast anything including elections. I don't use yelp, I don't not buy something because it only got 2 star reviews. I do my own personal DD on about everything in my life. My point was and is if you take a bunch of polls and average them together you can see possible trends. Then you take the trends of the past of what the electorate seems to be mostly concerned with via actual elections (which I admit are more and more biased themselves with the gerrymandering) compare whats going on and you can get a rough ideas where voters heads are at. Just make sure you know of any bias in any of the polls in the pool, I try to throw party sponsored pools out in my rough calculations.

I personally hate polls, and believe they will continue to be less and less accurate. But they're there, might as well use them responsibly and not be naive to think they are the say all end all.

[PortTack]

22. Yes a bunch of polls may be more accurate and show trends...having said that if they aren't accurate

Then you have an average of inaccuracies

[Cheezoholic]

28. Thats why hurricane forecasts are derived

from multiple models that are overall inaccurate to different degrees. You can deduce an overall trend with decent accuracy from all those "inaccurate" models. It's way way more complicated, above my rudimentary statistical analysis capabilities on both. But an average of "inaccuracies" can give you more accurate trends.

[PortTack]

33. Interesting...seems you understand quite a bit about statistics

[Cheezoholic]

38. And where did I say that?

I said its way above my head. I couldn't pull anything about simple college statistical analysis out of the cobwebs of my 60 year old brain if I tried lol. I know some about weather models because I'm a weather geek and lived on the SE coast for 25 years so I thought it would be beneficial to learn how they forecast hurricanes.

[PortTack]

45. Sorry...you just seemed quite knowledgeable in your reply..didn't mean any offense

[former9thward]

26. Yet you cite them in this thread when you like the results?

[Cheezoholic]

30. Where did I cite them that I liked the results?

I cited averaging pools of polls in order to possibly see trends. Never said it was scientific. Explicitly pointed out its my opinion, gave reasons why. If anything other posters said I was wrong when they could point to just 3 that gave the result they liked. If you think I like the repukes having an edge youre sorely mistaken. Like I said I dont pick polls, if I did I could find a flavor of the day too, but I don't.

[former9thward]

32. Check the post.

I was not replying to you.

[Cheezoholic]

39. lol sorry, the lines blurred n/t

[PortTack]

34. Not really...

[former9thward]

37. Your post:

3 separate generic ballot polls released earlier this week give Dems the lead with a margin of

5-7%. It was posted here on DU

[PortTack]

41. I also said this in another post/reply. Clearly stating I'm not much on polls

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100216870501
Reply#2

I will say..there is one poll I do trust that is not based in any of the current polling methodologies- Moody Analytics. They have correctly called every presidential election, less one since 1982

[Elwood P Dowd]

21. Just found this from the Emerson site.....

https://emerson.edu/academics/academic-departments/communication-studies/emerson-college-polling

(Snip)

The Emerson Poll methodology pairs an automated system that collects data over landline phones with an online panel of participants. In the 2018 Midterm Election season, Emerson Polling conducted 54 congressional, gubernatorial, senate polls in 20 different states across the nation. Following the election, it was determined that Emerson Polling achieved statistical and predictive accuracy in 93% of these races. 
To see results and more about the latest Emerson Polls, visit emersonpolling.com
 
(Snip)

[Polybius]

25. It's an Emerson College poll released yesterday

https://emersoncollegepolling.com/national-poll-biden-with-higher-approval-than-us-congress-trump-leads-gop-nomination-contest/

Emerson College is rated A- by FiveThirtyEight. That's pretty decent.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

[LiberalFighter]

27. Poll would be wrong.

[LAS14]

29. Whether or not the poll is accurate, it's crazy making that it's even CLOSE!!!

We live in a country where close to half the population is insane!!!

[Cheezoholic]

31. It's one poll n/t

[Dysfunctional]

35. I can't find anything recent but in 2010,

Pew Research Center found that landline-only surveys determined that Republicans were favored by an average of 5.1 percentage points. link - https://talkingpointsmemo.com/dc/pew-study-finds-republican-bias-in-landline-only-polls

[PortTack]

42. Interesting....I believe I have seen that before as well.

[treestar]

36. After the effort to throw TFG out

This doesn't sit right. Generic Republican, maybe. It would be stupid to return TFG.

[moondust]

40. GQP sabotage is working?

Imagine that.

[MineralMan]

43. Landline poll.

Who even answers their landline phone? Who even has one any longer?

In 2022, it is ridiculous to conduct a landline poll and try to claim it is meaningful.

[PortTack]

44. ☝️☝️☝️☝️☝️☝️

[MineralMan]

47. I cancelled my landline phone five years ago.

It stopped working - no dial tone. I called the phone company. They said they'd send a technician out within a week. They also said it would be $100/hour.

I said, "Disconnect me and cancel my service, please." The person I talked to barely even tried to talk me out of cancellation. So, my non-working landline service got cancelled. The only calls I ever got on it were telemarketers anyhow. I had stopped answering it. I kept it only for use when I needed to call someone and take notes. I had a headset phone at my desk. So, bought a new set of earbuds with a mic for my cell phone. Never missed it.

[andym]

46. What polls like this show is that inflation and higher interest rates are hurting Biden

which has historical precedent. Carter and Reagan (1981-1983) in particular were hurt by high inflation. The so far mild recession that is likedly occuring (need 2 quarters for negative GDP-- only one so far is official) and stock market decline are not helping as well.

[standingtall]

48. That poll also says 12% would vote for someone else

I don't think there is anyway that 12% of voters would cast their vote for a 3rd party candidate in a general election between Biden and Trump. Of course there would some, but nowhere near 12% and the bulk of them would probably break heavily for Biden. 5% are also undecided they would probably break for Biden too.

[IcyPeas]

51. people like Rusty Bowers and Bill Barr who say they would still vote for him if he's the nominee

I imagine there are more of these type of people out there who will still vote for trump if he is the nominee against any democrat.

Despite bravely speaking out against Trump’s election interference, he insisted he’d still vote for him in 2024. “If he is the nominee, if he was up against Biden, I’d vote for him again,” Bowers said. “Simply because what he did the first time, before COVID, was so good for the country. In my view it was great.”

...

Bill Barr:

Barr pledged to vote for Trump should he win the 2024 GOP nomination for president despite grave accusations and condemnations leveled against the former president in the former attorney general’s forthcoming book about his time in the Trump administration.

[Novara]

52. Anybody who takes stock in polls is a fool

HAven't we learned anything since 2016?