An expert in political violence urgently warns: The worst is coming

[Nevilledog]

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Greg Sargent
@ThePlumLineGS
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A deeply unsettling point from @RachelKleinfeld, who studies countries that descend into political violence.

Rises in political violence tends to be "preceded by a dehumanization phase."

The bad news: We are "well along in that phase."

washingtonpost.com
Opinion | An expert in political violence urgently warns: The worst is coming
The GOP flirtation with political violence could be a harbinger of democratic breakdown.
8:15 AM · Jul 11, 2022

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/07/11/gop-political-violence-militias-jan-6-democratic-breakdown/

No paywall
https://archive.ph/3QZpP

*snip*

Greg Sargent: You’ve written that the Republican Party has a “militia problem.” Can you describe it?

Rachel Kleinfeld: For the last few years, we’ve seen an uptick in Republican parties at the local level — though occasionally at the state level — using militias for security at party events, having militias vote on party business, in one case in Michigan having militias introduce legislation. You’re seeing a lot of photo-ops with militia members — things that normalize their interaction with the democratic process.

These militias are being used to threaten other Republicans who aren’t part of this antidemocratic faction.

Sargent: It seems as though some GOP and right-wing politicians are hovering in a gray area. They’re endorsing violent attacks on the opposition without facing serious party discipline, fantasizing about settling political differences via paramilitary combat, vastly minimizing the Jan. 6 insurrectionist violence or erasing it with propaganda, and describing Jan. 6 rioters facing prosecution as “political prisoners.”

Has this gray area been replicated by other countries that went on to spiral into worse political violence?

Kleinfeld: One of the things we know about other countries that descend into greater political violence is that violence is preceded by a dehumanization phase. America is well along in that phase: things like misogyny, racial epithets, calling Democrats “groomers” and comparing them to pedophiles.

The next stage is making violence against those dehumanized opponents seem more normal. You’re starting to see GOP candidates posing with rifles — everything from Rep. Thomas Massie’s family Christmas photo to Eric Greitens’s new ads about hunting RINOs.

*snip*

[H2O Man]

1. Recommended.

This is accurate. There will be more violence. It will cause suffering and death among innocent people. And this is exactly why we must win elections in November -- for maintaining the rule of law, to paraphrase Albert Camus, will lessen the numbers of innocent people who will suffer or die.

[Novara]

4. Exactly

I think about how we need more Democrats to protect voting and to protect us, and it makes me so damned angry that Manchin and Sinema are siding with the lunatics who are destroying this country. They aren't explicitly supporting them but their refusal to modify the filibuster is why we can't get election safeguards passed, why we can't protect women's rights to our own bodies, and why we can't protect the rule of law. So many bills have died in the Senate because of those two assholes.

Looking into the near future, I can see that we won't have voting safeguards, and several R state legislatures will overturn Democratic votes this fall. We will take to the streets to demonstrate and the right wing terrorists will bring their weapons and start a civil war.

[NickB79]

13. There aren't many off ramps left anymore

If the Right steals elections this fall, the Left protests, and the militias respond to those with gunfire, an equal armed response from the Left looks like one of the only remaining responses.

[hadEnuf]

46. I think we need to get that through our heads. Nobody on our side really wants it but we may have no

choice in the matter. Sorry, but we should have been facing these assholes down with equal power since day one. Gun control is fine as long as the other side participates but we are nowhere near that and obviously never have been.

They'll start to get the idea when some of their fascist "patriots" begin to go home to mommy horizontally, but it never should have even gotten close to this point.

[wnylib]

26. This fall the midterms are for Congress and governors.

Doesn't the law that allows state legislatures to overturn election results apply to presidential elections? It gives the legislatures the right to choose their own electors instead of the ones pledged to the presidential ticket that the people voted for.

[Novara]

32. not necessarily

Several states have put pure partisans in charge of overseeing all elections. If someone doesn't think they won't manufacture a reason to toss Democratic votes, I've got a bridge to sell.

[H2O Man]

39. I agree with you.

Republicans have attempted to limit voters' ability to participate in elections for longer than I've been alive, and there has almost always been violence associated with that. The militia-types, however, have not learned their history, for in the 1960s and '70s, it was the Left (and clearly not all of them) who participated in political violence. More, as many of the militia-types were in the military, they overlook the experiences in Afghanistan and Iraq. Or Vietnam.

We will most likely experience something like "the Troubles" in Ireland. And everyone gets hurt in those circumstances, especially innocent people who just want to live in peace.

[grantcart]

56. Well we can take solace in knowing that we aren't facing

a group that is energized by an irrational religious fervor that includes an irrational eschatology combined with an easy access to military style weapons.

(obviously)

One correction: prior to 1964 it was the Democratic Party and not the Republican Party that used Jim Crow to limit AA access to voting enfranchisement. Republican Senators supported the 1964 Civil Rights Act by a higher percentage than Democrats.

Significant segments of AA leadership were Republicans (Senator Brooke)

Of course Nixon's southern strategy changed all of that.

[H2O Man]

57. I stand corrected.

Last edited Tue Jul 12, 2022, 01:04 AM - Edit history (1)

You are correct about it being the Democrats who blocked voting for far too long. LBJ did make progress, and thus, came Nixon's southern strategy.

And I agree that there's nothing quite like a mob acting upon superstitions of a religious nature. They are so easy to communicate with, as they are always willing to consider others' opinions. (grin)

[calimary]

63. And that, mind you, will be brought to you by the self-proclaimed "pro-life" party.

[H2O Man]

71. Exactly!

[CentralMass]

2. It might be time to start heeding the warning. Everytime I think it "crazy" I am proved wrong.

[NickB79]

3. For years we've dismissed the RW militia threat as fat guys playing Army men

And we've put our faith in the police and military to stop them if it turned out they weren't bluffing.

That is starting to look like a serious miscalculation, IMO.

[slater71]

51. Your correct.

We cannot count on the police to stop them because a lot of them are for them. The military? The same thing. Three past generals have said that they would not count on the military to enforce the constitution. Again, too many support the militias but have to be quiet about it for now. If Trump gets to step into the White House again, it`s over for us and the democracy of this country. he will immediately declare marshall law and the cops and military will fall in line with him. Trump and his punks in the family will run this country forever. One more thing. You can add DeSantis to this also. If he wins, he will also be a dictator for life. He is only 43. So the Democrats have no choice but to stop both of them before they get to the White House. And that means we have to fight them in the streets if necessary. Will we? We will know soon.

[Delphinus]

53. I think

that you are, unfortunately, correct.

[CrispyQ]

72. Military, law enforcement, & intelligence all attract authoritarian types.

I'm sure all are infested with trumpers.

[Initech]

5. No doubt these fuckers are desperate to hang onto power.

And if they lost again they would definitely try something scary and dangerous. I keep saying we may be heading into uncharted territory in the '24 elections.

[underpants]

7. I wouldn't be surprised if they appear near certain polling places

Especially in crazy gun states where you can do anything. They may abide by election laws regarding where you can stand …..or maybe not.

[Initech]

10. Oh yeah I'm sure they will try that.

And I will still happily vote against them because I do not want to live in a Christian fascist totalitarian state. Fuck that shit.

[OMGWTF]

20. Which is why I support 100% mail-in voting. It's easy, safe, and there's a paper trail!

Eight states are doing this with great success and the military has done it since the Civil War.

I was a Democratic election observer for a couple of years and have confidence that, at least in Pierce County, WA, every effort is made to accurately count the ballots.

[Backseat Driver]

44. I'm not sure I agree; anything I get from the government

seems to disappear for at least 3 weeks. Rec'd the stimulus checks okay, but right now I'm looking for my Covid-tests they claimed via Informed Delivery were delivered to my mailbox on July 5. I live in an rental community with group boxes on an "alternate" route, not a "regular" route meaning I have no "regular" delivery person. Though the person that usually does this non-regular route didn't work on the 5th, that package from Lakeland, FL? could have been missed delivered, pitched, held somewhere...granted, those tests were free but addressed to me, and I want and have need of them. As long as DeJoy still reigns in place, our mail system and his minions might be playing with the protocols of delivery systems; the address label was correct, soooo....I'm ticked!

[h2ebits]

73. There is a box to check if you didn't receive them so they can trace the path. . . .or replace them

[Mr.Bill]

62. All it will take is a few drive-by shooting at polls

and thousands if not millions will be afraid to go and vote in person. We have to push mail-in voting. I honestly think one way or another there will be gunfire on election day this November.

[Initech]

14. Certainly true!

Trump is fueling the flames and Fox News is lighting the torch. November is going to be a massive shit show.

[rockfordfile]

15. You mean 22 elections

[Initech]

24. These elections are going to be a preview of what's coming.

[underpants]

6. Alarming.

I didn’t know they were actually involved let alone to this degree.

[Nevilledog]

9. Her article at Just Security is a chilling read

https://www.justsecurity.org/81898/the-gops-militia-problem-proud-boys-oath-keepers-and-lessons-from-abroad/

I did an OP on it, but it didn't really get much traffic.

[erronis]

16. Thanks for reposting. Somehow I don't think DU's rating system is all that fair/effective.

But don't ask me for a better one.

But I'd like to be able to rate individual posts and responses, not just the top OP.

And I'd like to see the Latest and Greatest Threads be able to sort/filter by more criteria.

And I wouldn't mind extending the idea of the Valentine hearts to be year-round. Maybe that would help with rating individual responses.

And I'd like to thank our hosts for such an incredible site!!!

[Nevilledog]

17. You're all full of good ideas.

[Wednesdays]

30. There are certain types of threads that consistently rise to the top of the Greatest Page

and it drives me mad, because they have very little to do with the mess we're in within America.

[Hermit-The-Prog]

8. Threats of violence are not "a gray area". In a civil society, they are actionable.

[wnylib]

29. But some of the people responsible for taking action

are on the side of the militias, and are actually members themselves.

For the first time on US history, 25,000 National Guard troops were deployed to protect the inauguration of the president. Before they could be deployed, they had to be vetted to weed out the members of hate groups.

[Hermit-The-Prog]

50. Yes. Our government has been infiltrated at all levels.

Every time a radical Republican is elected to office, those who favor fascism are installed along with the elected official. Not all are removed when that term ends.

Too many corporations are after the lower taxes and reduced regulation and don't care about the collateral damage. We have to win sequential elections in spite of an army of lobbyists and the propaganda machine (which includes most of the media Americans access, thanks to an FCC that rubber-stamped mergers for decades). It's Mr. Smith Goes To Washington come to life and with real lives at stake.

[MagickMuffin]

11. Rachel Kleinfeld also normalizing them by referring to them as militias instead of Terrorists

We need to quit referring to them as militias. They are not. They should always be referred to as terrorists. Because that is what they are. Terrorists to American citizens.


I'm considering whether we should start buying assault weapons to defend ourselves.

[erronis]

19. "whether we should start buying assault weapons to defend ourselves" - gun manufacturers

wet dream. I'm sure there are bigger/badder weapons available if you know who to talk to.

Best defense for a home? A dog (or two.)

[MagickMuffin]

49. If there is a home invasion how well will those two dogs save your life...

if those invaders have assault weapons. Those dogs would be mincemeat up again an ar15, ak47, are any other high powered weapon and so would the occupants.


I don't like the thoughts of having to defend myself from the emotional hatred of the rwtg (rightwingterroristgroups)

[BidenRocks]

22. I feel it's time to

Start organizing our American underground.
Totally in small groups, like the French resistance in WWII.
Just in case.
Preparation, even if not needed.

[wnylib]

31. +1000

[Novara]

34. You're right - they are terrorists

[Hortensis]

36. A Kleinfeld-type definition: "a military force that engages in rebel or terrorist

activities in opposition to a regular army." She's a political scientist but talking about a different meaning than the Second Amendment's. Knowing the terms terrorism experts and the government uses helps make sense of what they're saying.

Our government doesn't have a formal definition of terrorism yet. Not because they're lazy but because Republicans tend not to like accurate definitions that could conceivably cause problems for the far RW, where (regardless of race, religion, ethnicity) almost all violent extremism arises.

Agencies tend to refer to these groups as "violent extremist," to include a variety of terrorism activities, and DVE, "domestic violent extremist." VEs are considered potentially violent, but they don't have to actually act to be extremist or violent. And thinking is usually not illegal.

Terrorist" is used as a category of VE. Terrorists have to act. The action must be illegal. And it has to have a "political" sort of goal achieved by hurting and frightening people, especially civilians.

I remember reading that during Libya's civil war, around the time Ambassador Christopher Stevens snuck into the country on a freighter and later fatally stayed too long in one place outside the fortified U.S. embassy, there were something like an estimated 5000 armed "militias" rampaging around the country. An OMG number then, but I'm beginning to imagine that looking like very small potatoes if things were to really fall apart here.

[GenThePerservering]

60. That really bothered me, too

Legitimizing this terrorist rabble as 'militia' is just playing right into their narrative (thanks, Kleinfeld et al.). They're mindless thugs manipulated by any number of GOP interests in the background - they're too stupid to do much on their own and they'll never ask questions - this makes them effective and dangerous when organized by smarter people. They get their "courage" from their belief that they have all the guns and the rest of us will just crumble. We might just need to make that not true (I'm not much of a pacifist - sorry/not sorry).

[Pepsidog]

18. Well I look at these rw fanatics and it's hard not to dehumanize them. I suspect They hate me as

much as I hate them.

[peggysue2]

21. K&R!

Wake up, America.

The people who hate are hoping for and dreaming of a full-out civil war.

[BidenRocks]

25. They forget

I will lie in ambush and take your weapons and ammo from your cold dead hands.
Everyone is armed!

[bluestarone]

23. I fear it's going to come down to actual combat.

I hope i'm wrong. Only time will tell. Only thing i'm 100% sure of is that we need EVERY VOTE we can get.

[cagefreesoylentgreen]

58. They have no idea what violence looks like

Maybe if pictures of the aftermath from
Uvalde, Parkland, Las Vegas et al, the militants would find themselves with less allies willing to die and kill if they knew what death looks like. Right now, they think it’ll be like Rambo or some other sanitized Hollywood crap.

[Kablooie]

27. It's strange they are becoming so violent when they hold SCOTUS and many state legislatures.

They are moving towards getting everything they want and they still become violent?
Something very odd about this.

[wnylib]

33. Not really. They have red America on their side and

they know that they can only get blue America by force.

Besides, they are belligerent and violence oriented to begin with. It's what they live for.

[oldsoftie]

48. Much of red America isn't nearly ALL red either.

they always forget that a good portion of their states are Dems. I mean, Alabama sent a Dem to the Senate. Yes, he ran against Roy Moore, but Moore still got beat

[AntiFascist]

28. They need to set an example for Lauren "I am the militia" Boebert...

Lock her UP!

[bagimin]

35. k& highly recommended

[Cherokee100]

37. Fourth

Can we say 'Fourth Reich'? Jim Marrs book, has pretty much nailed it...

[Wild blueberry]

38. Accurate

Our small rural town's polling place is holding an active-shooter training next week, for awareness of what to do, in case.
Never thought being a poll worker would be potentially dangerous. Boring and tedious at times, overworked at others, but not potentially life threatening.
Thank you for posting this.

[CaptainTruth]

40. It's the Nazi/Fascist playbook.

Exactly what they did to the Jews. Pick a target group (or groups), dehumanize them, demonize them, & then violence against them becomes acceptable. It's a standard formula that's been used many times in many places.

The GOP has been doing it to Democrats & "the radical left" for years. Trump accelerated it & made the process itself "acceptable" to millions in the Radical Right.

[peppertree]

41. The Brownshirt/Blackshirt model

Hitler ad Mussolini rose to power in almost the exact way the Repug far right is trying to:

With armed thugs - and oceans of dark money (some of it, like Hitler's, from overseas).

[Cha]

42. I believe it.. Police better be ready for magats.

Please Fight to Save Our Democracy💙 in 2022 & 2024!

[NBachers]

43. "But why didn't the Germans stop Hitler from coming into power?"

[sop]

45. The likely flashpoint will be when Trump is indicted.

[jalan48]

47. The Deplorables are no laughing matter.

[sir pball]

52. This is why I own a gun.

Nothing upsetting, just a really old-fashioned lever-action. In 45-70. That I have "modern" loads for.

Come at me with your lil' popgun AR15 and we can discuss what "blowing a hole" means.

[Lucky Luciano]

54. The Republican cockroaches are a cancer on our society that should be excised.

[orangecrush]

55. DEER MAGATS -

[Jack the Greater]

59. "One of the things we know about other countries that descend into greater political violence...

... is that violence is preceded by a dehumanization phase."

And I read here in this very thread people being referred to as "MAGATS (maggots) and "Republican cockroaches". Cockroaches is a term applied to the Tutsis before their neighbors rose up and slaughtered them. Seems there is dehumanization going on all around. But we are all human beings, we have that in common. We are all capable of the highest good and the deepest depravity.

[Moostache]

74. I agree with you up to the point that behaviors DO dictate descriptions...

Tutsis and Hutsis in Rwanda was a debasing language against a group of people for what they WERE, not what they DID.

Republicans who seek to impose religious theocracy and take away rights of self-determination from women, forcing them into subjugation to the state are ACTIONS not TRAITS. Cockroaches that impose their will and beliefs on others are not being condemned for their ancestry or skin color or even their specific beliefs - they are being described, accurately, because their insistence on imposing THEIR BELIEFS onto others.

So yes, while it is disturbing and disheartening to see so many instances of dehumanization going on, it is equally important to note that INTENTION and REASONS separate some cases from others and pull them out of the "what-about-ism" soup and gaslighting used so effortlessly by too many.

Extermination of vermin is a nearly universal human instinct. Terming one side of a debate as vermin, because they exist and free of legitimate instances of behaviors threatening another's life, is abhorrent. Exterminating vermin because they threaten to erode the foundations of governance and replace it with theocracy is self-defense.

There's a huge difference.

[Lucky Luciano]

76. Yeah...the cockroach thing was sort of a joke...was checking to see if any irony meters went off!

[roamer65]

61. My gut tells me the world's population is about to decrease very soon.

[Moostache]

75. Climate change is going to make that all but certain within the decade.

Droughts (already ravaging the planet) are going to continue and grow more dire...if you're currently planning on moving to Phoenix or Las Vegas...I'd take a long hard look at water rights and availabilities before doing anything.

Rising sea levels are not slowing down because people stopped focusing on them...Miami is a good example with daily tidal floods and home owners going to extremes to stay anyway.

Heat waves, hurricanes, wild fires, sea current changes are all feeding back on themselves now. The release of permafrost methane is barely considered, but is a tipping point we passed and sped up while going by it.

India and Pakistan will exchange nuclear weapons in the coming years. So too might Russia and Western Europe if Putin and his thieves are not disposed of and replaced with sane people. The United States could very well fracture and fight a long Cold Civil War or may go at each other like wolves in a dark and bloody rerun of 1861-1865.

We lived from 1945 to the present in a kind of dream world brought on by the active memories of those who fought for it - through Global Depression and Mechanical, Industrialized World Wars...through Fascism and Genocide. Yet now, we see the gains and advances being stripped by radicals who wish to go back to the 1860's once more...those who would condemn women and LGBTQ peoples to back alleys, closets and raids for being human and loving who they love.

We sit at he fulcrum of history and the battles ahead are just the latest in an unbroken series of these same issues stretching back almost to the days we stood upright and ventured off of the savannahs of Africa millions of years ago.

Death and destruction ARE coming, in scales we never confronted previously, and there is precious little that can be done about it other than note to those who would fight for regression and stripping of rights and progress that their side and ideology ALWAYS lose in the end and that while the survival rate of every person drops to zero on a long enough timeline, the survival rate of IDEAS and EQUALITY is immortal.

[SpankMe]

64. There is one group that can fix this

And that group is: the 87 million asshole motherfuckers who declined to vote in 2020.

The voter turnout in my county in the primary for the 2022 midterms was 32%. I know this is a midterm - and only the primary for the midterm. But this descent into permanent one party rule is inevitable unless people start taking their right to vote seriously.

Young people don't vote because they say that registering is such a hassle. Also, because all of the candidates are "flawed" - as if they're entitled to the world's most perfect candidate who agrees with every last detail of their politics before they'll grace us with their effort to vote. They don't seem to understand the importance of voting. It ranks low on their list of concerns.

Online gaming, poker night, socializing with friends, meeting at the brewery on Thursday night after work, etc., etc., all seem to rate higher than taking a half hour or so a few times every four years to fill out a ballot and throw it in the mail. They'll spend hours in line several times a year for Comic Con or for concert tickets or for a meal at a popular restaurant. But they won't spend less than an hour in line once or twice every two years to vote in person.

We have to promote voting as a high virtue act and a proper duty, the same as we do for rendering aid at a car accident site.

People don't know how good they have it. They sit in their comfort zone thinking that enough votes are being cast that things will take care of themselves and that the majority will always come up with the right answer without their vote.

It doesn't work that way. Fuck the non-voter. Revoke citizenship for those who don't vote for more than two election cycles. Fuck 'em.

[niyad]

65. If I remember correctly, at least one of the OKC bombers was involved/trained

with a militia/"patriot" group.

[niyad]

70. Thank you.