Nate Silver: "The Simple Case for Saying Obama Is the Favorite"

[WilliamPitt]

Nov. 1: The Simple Case for Saying Obama Is the Favorite
Nate Silver
New York Times

11/02/2012

If you are following some of the same people that I do on Twitter, you may have noticed some pushback about our contention that Barack Obama is a favorite (and certainly not a lock) to be re-elected. I haven’t come across too many analyses suggesting that Mitt Romney is the favorite. (There are exceptions.) But there are plenty of people who say that the race is a “tossup.”

What I find confounding about this is that the argument we’re making is exceedingly simple. Here it is: Obama’s ahead in Ohio.

A somewhat-more-complicated version: Mr. Obama is leading in the polls of Ohio and other states that would suffice for him to win 270 electoral votes, and by a margin that has historically translated into victory a fairly high percentage of the time.

The rest: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/02/nov-1-the-simple-case-for-saying-obama-is-the-favorite/

[Wellstone ruled]

1. This election is ours

to lose period. When you have a incumbent President,you should be in the drivers seat. Now,in saying that,we all have to kick ass and take names on Tuesday. Find a phone bank to work,I am,first time we had time on Election Day in 50 years to this. Not going to miss this one.

[LuvNewcastle]

2. Looks like America is going to leave the prom with

the guy who brought her instead of the guy who flirted with her on the dance floor. Obama isn't going to take advantage of America while she's drunk.

[AleksS]

3. To take the metaphor a bit further:

I hope America catches Mitt as he's trying to slip roofies in her drink. Which is really a near-perfect metaphor for his campaign, isn't it?

(And yes, I'm not sure whether I should have used farther or further in the title. Sorry.)

[LuvNewcastle]

5. That's a great metaphor.

And I think you're correct in your use of further. It sounds better to me, at least.

[tblue37]

6. "Further" would be better.

Generally, farther refers to physical distances, further to figurative distances

[nolabear]

4. Nate, Honey. Don't confuse them with facts. They respond to fear.

I think Nate should get some kind of award for being Statistician in Chief.