Today is the first day that Nate Silver has ranked the odds of Senate control at 50:50

[AdamGG]

The January 6th hearings, horrible Supreme Court decisions, and strong Democratic candidates in swing states are starting to create some momentum. Hopefully, it can mushroom.

https://fivethirtyeight.com

[Woodswalker]

1. The hearings are proving

Results. The timing of the last three in September is ideal

[msongs]

2. will help if gas/inflation go down, cuz its still "the economy stupid" as the saying goes nt

[AdamGG]

4. That's why Joe had to go to Saudi Arabia and acknowledge MBS

Geopolitics is nasty, but had to focus on priorities.

[Funtatlaguy]

3. I think he's wrong. We will end up gaining 3-4 seats.

All currently seated Dems will be re-elected which includes the supposedly 4 tossups of: NH,NM,AZ,GA.
We will flip 3-4 GOP held seats out of these 6 competitive races in: PA, WISC, OH, NC, FLA, IOWA.

We will however lose the House and GOP will have a 220-215 advantage.

You should take these predictions with just one grain of salt and bet on them in Vegas accordingly.

[PortTack]

5. Agree! 538 polling is far from accurate, the last 3 election cycles have proven that

Silver came to political prominence in 2008, when his aggregations of election polls produced an impressive predictive model that called that year’s national elections with remarkable accuracy. In subsequent years, he and his organization, FiveThirtyEight, have produced inconsistent results: an inaccurate muck-up of 2010 elections in the U.K.; an accurate prediction of the 2012 results in the U.S.; and a wildly incorrect take on the 2016 elections that he continues to attempt to retcon into an impressive showing by claiming he was slightly less overconfident about a Donald Trump loss than everybody else...gave HRC a 94% chance of winning 7 days b4 the election.

Increasingly, one suspects that despite his claims to analytical rigor, at some very basic level, Silver does not actually know what a poll is. He is not alone in this; a fair portion of the country’s political punditry and opinion-making class is equally misinformed. In their conception, polls of opinion and sentiment represent not a snapshot of the present as informed by the past, but rather a hazy but prescient view into the future; not a measurement, but a prediction. “[Y]ou can actually write down what will happen in the future, with as much confidence as you write down the history of the past. Because it’s science!” This is why so much media discourse around polling emphasizes a framework that paints polls of present attitudes as a form of absolute constraint on where sentiment will go. Increasingly, one suspects that despite his claims to analytical rigor, at some very basic level, Silver does not actually know what a poll is. He is not alone in this; a fair portion of the country’s political punditry and opinion-making class is equally misinformed. In their conception, polls of opinion and sentiment represent not a snapshot of the present as informed by the past, but rather a hazy but prescient view into the future; not a measurement, but a prediction. “[Y]ou can actually write down what will happen in the future, with as much confidence as you write down the history of the past. Because it’s science!” This is why so much media discourse around polling emphasizes a framework that paints polls of present attitudes as a form of absolute constraint on where sentiment will go.

This is an interesting read…more at the link


https://www.commondreams.org/views/2019/10/30/nate-silver-making-he-goes

[AdamGG]

6. Bump because today is the 1st day that Nate Silver projects the Democrats to carry 52 Senate seats!

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/?cid=rrpromo