John Harwood with some polling news

[BootinUp]

John Harwood
@JohnJHarwood


new national Monmouth Poll on Americans' preference for control of Congress:

Democrats 50%
Republicans 43%
8:15 AM · Aug 3, 2022·Twitter for iPhone

Link to tweet

[elleng]

1. That sounds good, but to what extent do individuals make it true?

and how many congressional seats are there? 435 House seats

[BootinUp]

5. Yes, this is a very high altitude look

something for Nate Silver and other number crunchers to play with.

[ColinC]

2. More to come

[AntivaxHunters]

3. This should be much larger of a margin

but it is barely August

[BootinUp]

4. That is also my take. nt

[ColinC]

9. It may be

I think polls have been and will continue to be dramatically underestimating the margin Dems may win in November.

[Bev54]

14. Yes as Kansas has shown the polls are not factoring the large turnouts.

[karynnj]

21. To some degree, the Kansas amendment might be a stronger motivator than an election

Obviously, the unexpected even when predictable (even in 2016) loss of a 50 year old right is probably the strongest motivator in the last 50 years. Stronger even than the various anti war movements.

However, that may not happen unless people REALLY fear a national ban legislated ban on abortion which cannot happen earlier than 2025 because it would need a Republican House, Senate ( willing to eliminate the filibuster) and a Republican President.

[Demsrule86]

22. Really...should be higher? Are you aware, that the President's party has won the midterm only

twice in 90 years? This ocurred in 34 and in 2002. This is a BFD assuming we can make it happen. And I think we can.

[halfulglas]

6. All politics is local.

Yeah, like I want the Democrats, but "my" GOP rep is OK. Like hell.

[Music Man]

7. That is good news.

I hope it grows wider, though. Historically, Democrats have needed to have huge leads in the generic polls to avoid losing seats. Part of this is due to gerrymandering, and I wouldn't be surprised if the Democrats' habit of having lower turnout in midterms as opposed to presidential elections is probably a factor too. And let's not forget voter suppression in certain states.

So we have to run up the score. This is an encouraging trend. I believe this poll was from July 28-August 1, so it likely doesn't factor in the death of Zawahiri, passage of the PACT Act, and the momentum from the abortion victory in Kansas. Onward and upward.

[BootinUp]

8. all good points

thanks

[G2theD]

10. It makes sense

1-Abortion
2-Televised J6 committee
3-Mass shootings
4-Veteran’s Health

There are 4 main issues that will keep both houses blue. That is if EVERYONE VOTES!!

I finally feel hopeful that things may get better.

[3Hotdogs]

12. 5. Supreme Court's future plans for your spiritual well being... stop birth control. Gay marriage.

6. Some of the assholes that they have as candidates.

7. Some of the already elected politicians making asses of themselves.

8. The Slobfather is still alive.

[G2theD]

20. 9. They suck.

[Rhiannon12866]

11. Twitter reply:

Link to tweet

[ejbr]

13. I've heard

that Democrats need at least 5% more in party preference polls to maintain the House.

[Demsrule86]

23. Based on what? I love all the dire predictions on this post...and the doom and gloom...actually

I don't. We have shifted this election in a big way. And based on how wrong the polls were in Kansas, my guess is that it is higher than what current pollsters are predicting. We are looking at a revolt against the GOP in the burbs...

[ejbr]

30. Based on a study

On how gerrymandering affects outcomes. Why so surprised?

[Demsrule86]

32. Gerrymandering was in place when we won the House and Senate before. The gerrymandering won't

help with the Roe vote nor will it be easy to poll. Massive voting destroys gerrymandering. But here is the thing. What is the reason for such posts? Do you want to discouarage voters and have them give up?

[ejbr]

34. The reason

Was to wed the presumed need for 5% points with the 7% led Dems now have. Again, chill.

[progressoid]

15. And which of the issues I just mentioned is most important to you in your vote choice for Congress?

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_us_080322/

Immigration policy 8%
Health care policy 14%
Gun control policy 17%
Abortion policy 17%
Tax policy 7%
Economic policy 24%
Climate change policy 11%
Don’t know 3%

The right wing keeps harping on immigration but that doesn't seem to be as big of a deal as it used to be. However, if the economy is still stinky in a couple months, that could be a problem.

[BootinUp]

17. I've been following Krugmans tweets, he's still

the best at reading the tea leaves imho. There are definitely some good signs on the inflation front that he has highlighted. Still a foggy picture though.

And someone else mentioned already, the job market is strong.

But your points are well taken.

[herding cats]

19. I'm 100% not being a stick in the mud here.

The job market is very, very good, but it's showing signs of weakening a bit. It's due to the recession risks. I don't see it as being 2007/2008 levels at all, but there is some mushiness there.

I expect exploitation of any softening to be exploited.

[BootinUp]

28. Here is how Krugman frames that aspect

And yes we are all looking for ways to predict the future, its just that he has been very good at it. See the path A and B graph

Link to tweet

Link to tweet

Link to tweet

Link to tweet

[Demsrule86]

24. And the answer is none of the above... Roe is not even in that list. Democrats should never run

on laundry lists to begin with, but certainly not one that omits Roe.

[progressoid]

26. Abortion Policy is listed

It is also part of a group of separate questions asked

6.I’m going to read you a number of different policy issues. For each one, please tell me how important it is that a candidate for Congress shares your views on that issue in order for you to vote for them. You may use extremely important, very important, just somewhat important, or not important.

Abortion policy

Extremely important 35%
Very important 33%
Just somewhat important 19%
Not important 12%
Don’t know 1%

[Demsrule86]

33. ROE is not there. Stupid push poll.

[Midnight Writer]

16. I think Kansas started the ball rolling. Now we will pick up momentum,

especially as people get more focused as the election nears.

I think there were some Democrats getting discouraged and I think there were some Republicans afraid to "come out" on this issue.

Now Kansas has boosted morale.

[Warpy]

18. Same old problem, they think their GOP guy is OK

It's your son of a bitch who needs to go.

[Demsrule86]

25. Who thinks their GOP is OK? Not Democrats for sure. The fact is electing their guy will cause

women to lose a long-held right to an abortion which also includes medical care, a right to contraception, and perhaps the right to travel freely from state to state. We don't need more doom and gloom posts about how we won't win because some unnamed person thinks their GOP guy is 'ok'. We are doing very well thus far. Kansas proved that when we show up even in a red state, we are unstoppable.

[progressoid]

27. It's the same problem I have with the question "is the country headed in the right direction?"

Only 15% say the country is headed in the right direction. But that doesn't really tell you much since the other 85% have vastly different ideas about what that direction should be.

[Warpy]

29. That's because individual questions skew so heavily liberal

Tax the rich

Universal health care

Subsidized child care

Rein in big banks, mega corporations, and Wall Street

Raise the minimum wage to what 50 years of inflation say it should be

Improve mass transit

And there are many, many others. Having this rogue USSC overturn established laws that protect human rights has awakened a lot of people out there that mealy mouthed conservatism was a smoke screen and that we're headed for a plutocratic dictatorship.

[SYFROYH]

31. National Polls don't mean much for the Senate or Electoral College