A very interesting article about one of the best political analysts
And pollsters in American politics... he was involved with almost every election between 1968 and 2016. He passed away in February, 2019... he was a southern conservative Democrat and economic nationalist and he was considered one of the best pollsters and analysts in electoral history... he actually became disenchanted with the Democratic Party when Obama was President because he saw the party becoming more of a group of technocrats then politicians who could make effective change
In 2013 he writes a political article about a theoretical candidate who he calls "Smith"... after the movie "Mr Smith Goes to Washington"...Cadell started advising Bannon about how to advise Trump... and he decides to run Donald Trump as this theoretical, Smith, who is a politician who is neither liberal nor conservative... he was quoted as saying that he didn't think that Donald Trump was a very good Smith but he was the only Smith that Cadell had... everything that he did was Data driven. He basically looked at the polls before an election he looked at the exit polls during the election and he watched how the voting changed over the evening on Election Day. With his candidate going up and down at different times of the day. By 8:00 on Election Day 2016 he simply said that Trump had won the election. Even Trump didn't believe it.
Steve Bannon reads this article and he strikes up a friendship with this person who was named Pat Cadell... Cadell starts doing interviews on Fox News where he is called Fox News resident Democrat....
After decades advising about a dozen largely Democratic politicians, Caddell spent his last years as a regular on Fox News, railing against Democrats, who, he now said, were all elitists who hated regular Americans. And he had Trump’s ear, sharing research and designating the media as “the enemy of the American people,” a phrase the president gleefully adopted...
At Harvard (the ultimate establishment university, of course) Caddell started a polling firm, and a friend introduced him to future senator Gary Hart, then the campaign manager for presidential candidate George McGovern. Caddell told McGovern to amplify his anti-establishment messaging in advance of the New Hampshire primary. The candidate shocked people by coming in second. Caddell instantly became coveted Washington property.
The number of leaders Caddell linked with—from McGovern, Biden (they fell out over Caddell’s volatility during Biden’s 1988 presidential campaign), Carter and Trump to Hart, Walter Mondale and Ross Perot—reveals the attractiveness of his ideas. But there was a downside for elected officials who adopted Caddell’s thinking. Once the speeches were delivered and the votes were counted, leaders still had to lead—and Caddell had nary a thought about how it should be done.
In 2004 he plays a small but important role in Howard Dean's campaign for the Democratic nomination for president...
After Howard Dean loses the Democratic nomination Cadell walks away from polling and campaigning to teach Political Science at Charleston University in South Carolina.
As the Washington Monthly put it in 1987, “Caddell understands polling, public opinion, and campaigning, but his knowledge of and interest in government is scant.”
Carter found this out the hard way. After helping to guide the Georgia peanut farmer to an unlikely victory in 1976, Caddell sent the president a memo instructing him to pose as an anti-politician, suggesting he take symbolic acts to differentiate himself from the establishment.
It was Cadell who wrote what became known as the Malaise Speech... about how Americans had lost their way and had also lost their independence and self-reliance especially with regard to being dependent on other countries for things like oil...
The president’s proposed solutions to what he called “a crisis that strikes at the very heart and soul and spirit of our national will” were underwhelming. He urged Americans to have faith in each other and the country’s potential; he set import quotas on foreign oil and suggested a conservation program.
He was extremely effective in helping people get elected but he really didn't have a good idea of how people should lead after they got elected...
He was a lifelong Democrat and his political Heroes were Franklin Delano Roosevelt. Harry Truman, and Martin Luther King. He remained a Democrat until the day that he died.
It's believed that he felt extremely disenchanted with getting Donald Trump elected because Trump did not turn out to be the president that he expected...Neither Liberal nor conservative...
Trump simply takes a very hard turn to the right.
I have always thought that the reason Donald Trump 2020 because Cadell died in February 2019...
Cadell was, in my mind, the primary reason that Trump won in 2016, and his absence was why Trump lost in 2020
This article is basically his obituary: after reading it I'd like to know what other people think about my idea that Trump lost 2020 because Cadell was not available...
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.politico.com/amp/news/magazine/2019/12/29/patrick-caddell-pollster-obituary-086490
= new reply since forum marked as read
also David RUBINSTEIN, (speechwriter?) who went on to co-found The Carlyle Group, great philanthropist (now).
President CARTER had a nest of asps at his breast.
To wit:
Etymology of "Tweety". During Campaign 2000 the media noise machine was swooning over the nicknames Shrub was giving some of them. Media Whores Online ran a contest to nickname Chris MATTHEWS. In the first three or so weeks, there was no clear, catchy front runner, with "The Screamer" sort of leading. Then one of MATTHEWS's own Hardball staff leaked to MWO that they themselves called him "Tweety" because of the Clairol shade of hair coloring he favored. This was immediately declared the winner. But in some quarters, it wasn't entirely satisfactory. For one thing, by the time the name was declared, the shade had changed to platinum, leading to a suggestion he be called "Carole LOMBARD".
Plus, "Tweety" sounded too affectionate.
His Misogyny. Then M-TV held its 20th or 25th or whatever anniversary, and all the cable echo chambers were doing segments of Britney shedding her duds down to almost nothing. Not to be left behind, Tweety followed suit, with a guest "culture" commentator from Time Mag, the young humor columnist, Joel STEIN. The staff kept re-running the Britney clip, and Tweety was clearly DROOLING disgustingly. STEIN said, "You're beginning to creep me out." Tweety responded, "Yeah, well, wait till YOU're 50." This led to the suggestion that "Tweety" be modified to "Tweezer" to retain the hair reference while canceling out the affection factor and also adding the (dirty old) "geezer" angle.
Back when, misogyny was a wink-wink/smirk-smirk thing among the old style flunkies like him, there were many examples of his, with HRC being his prime target for years until she was becoming a real contender, when he yearned to host her, but the bridges had been burned.
But here's a vignette from back in the day, regarding his wife Kathleen. He deigned to host her or let her co-host a segment or so, this time with him and another recycled miscreant Mike BARNICLE. She was standing like at the front of a class and they two were sitting like the smirking, spit-balling, Catholic schoolboy-jerks that they really are. She trudged through her presentation, taking her subject seriously while the two of them smirked, giggled, and mocked all the way. But regarding Kathleen, he exemplifies one signature characteristic of misogynists: Despite the obviously hostile behaviors, they claim to adore, honor, put-on-a-pedestal women. And Tweety frequently does that over-compensating, protests-too-much thing by referring to her as, "MY QUEEN."
*************So flash forward decades to the TWITLER atrocious era, specifically calling Senator WARREN “Pocahontas.” Tweety hosted her soon after a TWITLER episode of it, besides a manic outburst of his sputtering interrupting, almost giggling every time he said that name, catching himself each time then protesting that it was a horrible thing, like Beavis/Butthead giggling at a dirty word. So WARREN kept to the high road and that TWITLER was not going to silence her. So then he struck, like when he lashed out at DONAHUE. He was in bursting giggle mode and said, "So, for you 'Pocahontas' will be like a clarion call for you to come charging out!1" and he busted his gut. WARREN looked sucker punched.
Darrell HAMMOND "Doing" Tweety on SNL. Tweety's ego was massively stroked after the debut of HAMMOND's impersonation of him, either in 2001 or 2002. He said, "I am now an ICON: I have been 'done' on Saturday Night Live'." The funniest line in the debut was HAMMOND as Tweety, cracking himself up with, "For the ... FIFTY ... people who watch this show...” (Hardball, not SNL). In the first few times HAMMOND featured him, the target was Tweety himself -- manically interrupting, spitting, and drooling. However, the characterization evolved, not true to the original, where Tweety became the "rational" character surrounded by oddball, extremist "guests", with HAMMOND-Tweety shaking his head in disbelief at their partisan spin.
"Turning" from Being a Democrat. He (like G.E.RUSSERT and Pat CADDELL) still trades on having been a Democrat in the CARTER/O'NEILL era. In the hothouse of big time political flunkydom, STATUS and POWER come from the SUCCESS of your boss. RAYGUN kicked Tweety's bosses' rears, and Tweety gravitated to admiring that "success". When he started up his media career he was mentored by G.E. RUSSERT, who had himself already started "turning" by "reaching out" to LIMBOsevic and expending his formerly-Lib-bleeding-heart on those poor wingnuts who had been maligned and marginalized by the Liberal Elite, lo those many years. Tweety started doing video valentines to RAYGUN, promenading arm in arm with Nancy. He might have tapped into the frenzy of the FAKE impeachment, but "hatred of the CLINTONs" isn't what made him turn. The last time he was identifiably a Democrat was sometime around 1988 when Hardball (the book) was published. Throughout the year of Campaign 2000 he savaged the Dem candidate daily and went on to years of bromance over Shrub, renouncing any Democratic heritage. He said his parents were “cloth coat" (Rethugs), and that basically what first drew him to the Dem side was Irish-Catholic pride over JFK. Not ideology, not idealism. He said the reason he joined the Peace Corps was specifically to avoid going to Vietnam.
How Tweety "Executed" DONAHUE on MSNBC. Tweety was on his book tour for another one of his "books" (large type, wide spaces between lines, blank half-pages). It was in the jingoistic hysteria in the run-up to the illegal Iraq attack. The book was about supposed "Americanism" -- an American Civ 101 ripoff about books and movies and cultural stuff that are essentially American (think, "The Great Gatsby" ). So Phil welcomed him as a colleague and peer on Phil's MSNBC show for the full hour to plug the book. From the moment he appeared, there was a strange, deadly snake look in Tweety's snake eyes. Phil was walking around the audience, apparently not sensing anything, while Tweety was motionless, following him only with his eyes. Phil brought up something or other questioning blind, kneejerk jingoism, and Tweety STRUCK! He started out with venom dripping, "You see, THIS is EXACTLY what's wrong with YOU Liberals: You are NEGATIVE about this country, you find NOTHING good about it," and on and on. It took awhile before Phil figured out what was happening. Later, Phil, devastated and spent, was sitting at the table with Tweety and, weaker and weaker, did some of his trademark shoulder shrugging and arm waving. Tweety delivered the coup de grace, "What's THIS (mimicking the movements)??!! What's with the --APE-- movements???!" Days or a week or two later, Phil's cancellation was announced and took effect.
How Tweety "Triggered" a Gun Incident (re: Kathleen WILLEY). At the height of the FAKE impeachment, Ms WILLEY claimed that a mystery jogger had threatened her or her cat or somebody, with the insinuation that there was a CLINTON connection. Several months later, there was gossip that the jogger had been identified. Tweety hosted her and it appeared they had discussed the identity off camera. He tried mightily to get her to say the name on the air, which she wouldn't do. Finally, he himself blurted it out, "Was it (Name/Surname)?" She wouldn’t confirm it. Within days there was a bizarre incident, with the mentally disabled brother of Pat and Bay BUCHANAN going with a gun to the house of the supposed jogger named by Tweety, where there were only some foreign exchange students present. Later it was determined that the person Tweety named on the air had NOTHING to do with the supposed jogger incident.
"Heroes" Tweety and Tom DeLAY. In the aftermath of the 07-24-98 shooting of two Capitol police officers when the slain officers were duly eulogized and called heroes, Tweety latched on to this, the way we have seen him attempt to glorify himself in other instances: Like saying he was assigned to Africa in the Peace Corps and "WALKED THE SAME GROUND" THAT CHURCHILL had passed through. Or when he said, "I am an ICON! I have been 'done' by SNL!". So now that the Capitol policemen were being called heroes, Tweety came forward to say that HE had been a Capitol policemen, TOO, JUST LIKE THEM, when he was starting out. It turns out that he had worked a (temporary?) job for three months as that. In all the years before the officers were shot and eulogized, he probably NEVER referred to that job, most likely thinking of it as a rent-a-cop turn, until he could see in retrospect the glory that he had been DESTINED to from the beginning.
But he is not the only glory hog. When that incident was happening, the news of the moment reported that Tom DELAY had hopped a plane out of town and immediately turned around in Houston when the incident was over. This show of courage is why he has been dubbed, "Tom-DePLANE!-DePLANE!-DELAY". But searches of countless news reports of that time show no mention of the hopping-the-plane. Only this is left: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/national/longterm /... "...House members, many rushing out of town, did not have to remain behind. DeLay slipped out the main door of the Capitol less than 15 minutes after the shooting. He looked stricken. Asked if he'd seen anything, he said, "Did I ever. I don't want to talk about it." Aides rushed him into his waiting car. ...."
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