WOW: Nate Silver Took A Huge Shot Against Mainstream Political Pundits In His...

[WillyT]

Nate Silver Took A Huge Shot Against Mainstream Political Pundits In His Latest Election Forecast
Joe Weisenthal | BusinessInsider
57 minutes ago (11/3/12)

<snip>

Nate Silver's whole project of taking a purely numbers-based approach to political punditry has always been an implicit criticism of most mainstream forecasters, but in recent days he's gotten much more aggressive about what he sees as the flaws and errors of most professionals.

His latest election forecast looks at the fact that of the 22 Swing State polls that were released yesterday, Barack Obama led in 19, and that Mitt Romney lead in just 1 (2 were ties).

He then delves into the various reasons this might not mean Obama will win, most notably the possibility that swing state polls are systemically biased against Romney for whatever reason. That he considers a possible coherent logical argument, but it's one that very few of the folks calling the race a "toss up" are citing.

To which Silver then responds:

My argument, rather, is this: we’ve about reached the point where if Mr. Romney wins, it can only be because the polls have been biased against him. Almost all of the chance that Mr. Romney has in the FiveThirtyEight forecast, about 16 percent to win the Electoral College, reflects this possibility.

Yes, of course: most of the arguments that the polls are necessarily biased against Mr. Romney reflect little more than wishful thinking.

Nevertheless, these arguments are potentially more intellectually coherent than the ones that propose that the race is “too close to call.” It isn’t. If the state polls are right, then Mr. Obama will win the Electoral College. If you can’t acknowledge that after a day when Mr. Obama leads 19 out of 20 swing-state polls, then you should abandon the pretense that your goal is to inform rather than entertain the public.

As they say on Twitter: #shotsfired.

<snip>

Link: http://www.businessinsider.com/nate-silver-on-who-political-pundits-who-are-mostly-entertainers-2012-11

[GentryDixon]

1. He does not suffer fools gladly.

Good for him.

[freshwest]

33. +1. '..abandon the pretense that your goal is to inform rather than entertain the public.'

That's gonna leave a mark!

[FVZA_Colonel]

38. The pundits have been going after him a lot more this time around, and I think he's fed up with it.

And as well he should be: on his side, there is solid statistical analysis; on theirs, the "gut feelings" of malformed gas-bags.

[JHB]

48. And mainstream punditry is chock full of fools.

Blame the people who write their paychecks for that.

[tavalon]

56. Nor should he

We have too many of them already.

[wryter2000]

2. CBS last night

Paraphrasing:

"Obama can count 255 electoral votes, and Romney can count 206. The swing states are close. Therefore, it's a tie."

No, you assholes. It's 255 to 206. Gaaahhhh.

For pity's sake, even freepers understand this.

[speedoo]

8. Nate does not suffer fools like Schieffer at all.

And Schieffer is not trying to inform. Not sure what he and the others are doing but informing ain't it.

[exboyfil]

9. 255? So they have Ohio with Obama

PA, MI, OH Obama

leaving NV, IA, WI, CO, NH, VA, NC, FL

FL - Win

NC - Win

VA& one other -Win

WI & one other not NH - Win

CO & one other not NH - Win

NV, IA, and NH - Win

Sure looks like 50/50 to me (sarcasm)

[fujiyama]

14. Apparently in pundit world, 15 = 64

Math is hard!

[Cosmocat]

16. Flat out - D v R framing

if only is because it is a democrat, flat out.

Bush had a similar or smaller leads in 2004, and it was always framed as his win being imminent.

[riderinthestorm]

36. Yup, its the math stupid.

(not your wryter, just the pundits)

K&R nt

[mnhtnbb]

52. Math is not their strong point. We already know this!

[D23MIURG23]

58. Yeah, but pundits say stupid things for a living, and freepers generlly just do it as a hobby. n/t

[BeyondGeography]

3. This is very healthy; the pundits are useless

Overpaid, manipulating corporate suck-ups. For partisan reasons, I hope the polls are consistent with reality, but also for the post-election cleansing that a data-driven result would lead to.

[txdemsftw]

4. Once again...

it's math people. Nate Silver isn't a psychic..it's freaking MATH!

Ugh.Repukes will do and say anything to make themselves look 'good.'

[BouzoukiKing]

12. Indeed.

And let's keep in mind that almost all media outlets are owned by people with a lot of skin in the tax-cut game. It's that simple.

[calimary]

23. VERY good point.

They have a strong interest in seeing republi-CONS win ANYTHING. Either the companies themselves or their parent companies. And remember, people like Bob Schieffer not only hobknob with the 1% in fancy cocktail parties in Georgetown or black-tie dinners at the Kennedy Center or some such. And people like Bob Schieffer get paid the amount of money that enters them into the "I Want Tax Cuts" sweepstakes. The country may lose, bigtime, but they'll always wind up winning something.

[Horse with no Name]

34. Not just any math. ARITHMETIC!

[TahitiNut]

42. Exactly.

As a former high school math teacher, with my undergrad in Mathematics, it annoys me when the empty heads refer to addition, subtraction, multiplication, and division as "mathematics." Nonfuckingsense. No fourth-grader takes a course in "math." Idiots.

[briv1016]

43. Then again,

Taylor expansions show just how important addition, subtraction, multiplication and division really are.

[SleeplessinSoCal]

5. He's under attack as much as Obama. Charlie Rose "prosecuted" him.

Rose showed his corporate colors in an ugly fashion. On the other hand, Nate is promoting a book before the election is over, so I understand their frustration - given who they want to win.

[Melissa G]

6. at least two possibilties to Romney win

either the polls are biased against him or
more likely, it is stolen.

But good on Nate for calling them out.

[Dustlawyer]

45. If Nate wanted to back up his numbers with what the chance

is for R$ to win all the swing states, he should blame a rigged election and voter suppression!

[Anthony McCarthy]

7. As I heard someone point out the pundits predictions are less reliable than a coin toss

I'm a polling skeptic but I'm even more of a pundit skeptic. May prediction as a substitute for reporting fact die and may we all piss on its grave.

[exboyfil]

17. Assuming Obama has Ohio

Even with coin toss odds on the remaining 8 states, Romney has only a 4.3% chance of a win or a tie. That is assuming independent odds on each state. Basically 11 combinations out of 256.

[INdemo]

57. On This Weeks Geo Stephanopolis

George Will predicted a near landslide for Rmoney with Mitt winning Minn and most of the the midwest toss ups and winning 321 electoral votes..WTF

[JaneyVee]

10. Nate Silver doesn't just aggregate polls, they get put through his own software which

factors in things like historical trends & economic activity/trends etc.

[Whisp]

11. wooooooo! that's got to smart for the jackasses like Ed and Tweets and Rach.

I still can't stand listening to their asses ever since that fake Obama lost debate 1 stupidity that they invented.

[davekriss]

20. Nonsense

Debate 1 was a disappointment to all of us on the Obama train.

Rachel, Ed, and even Tweety do a fabulous job compared to the rest of mainstream media.

[oswaldactedalone]

31. ^^^ This is correct ^^^

Obama was politically stupid in the first debate. He was called out, recognized his erroneous strategy, and kicked ass in the next two. They were right to be pissed.

[Whisp]

51. ^^^That is incorrect^^^

Ed, Tweets and Rach were politically stupid in the first debate. They called Obama out and dismissed the many lies Romney could fit in, in an entire hour and a half. I now recognize their erroneous strategy and want to kick them in their collective asses. I am right to be pissed.

[Democrats4All]

13. and ... media please stop ...

using words like small or narrow or huge or any adjective when you are describing a poll number. if it's Obama 50 Romney 48 in a state just say those numbers. When you add those other words, you are already skewing the numbers by giving weight to those words.

[Cosmocat]

15. If I have read or heard SLIGHT

100 times this election, EVERY stinking time it has been in relation to the President ...

[calimary]

24. Welcome to DU, Democrats4All!

Glad you're here and it's a good point you make. ALWAYS be aware of what the chattering class says AND THE WAY THEY SAY IT. The WORDS they choose. The PHRASES they choose. Always have your antennae all the way UP. Never listen with your naivete turned on.

We need you - we need everybody! Three days!






Now get to work.

[thesquanderer]

18. I'll bet 10 thousand dollars that Obama wins (n/t)

[TomClash]

19. Nate Silver is partially wrong

If RMoney wins, it can only be because he stole the election.

[fasttense]

44. Exactly Tom

I've wondered what Nate would do and say if his projections turn out to be almost 100% wrong after the election. Would he admit to vote rigging then? Is he implying he's going to call the rigging of a national presidential election biased polling? Really? All those polls he uses to get his predictions (that have been accurate up to this election) and he's going to say they were all biased against poor, poor Romney?

I would like to see him, just once, call an obviously rigged election what it really is.

[Up2Late]

21. LOL! Folks, it's all about the MONEY!

The Talking heads at Fox "news" and all the other RW propaganda sites have to keep the RW sheep thinking it's close to keep their audience tuning in so they see the ads, the ads bring in the MONEY.

[mountain grammy]

26. Getting a dose of fox news without my consent and it's an alternate universe there

[pscot]

49. It's not just Fox

David Gregory on MTP is talking about rMoney's road to 270.

[Hamlette]

22. spoken like the endearing nerd that he is.

he's such an interesting guy and watching him react as he was pulled into the political fray this year has been fascinating. He is so disarming. It is exactly as he says: he doesn't have a dog in this fight, he's not milking the numbers for his guy, the only dog he has in this fight is himself and he is so self assured he doesn't get defensive.

The bet with "The Scar" was brilliant in such an endearingly nerdy way. Did Joe even answer? For a measly grand (for Nate and Joe, losing $1,000 will not change the quality of their life) to such a worthy cause Joe should have jumped if for no other reason than the good press he would get. By not taking it he looks like a chickenshit liar. I used to be able to tolerate Joe in the off season (can't take any republicans during an election year because the stakes are so high) but he showed what a tool he is by not taking the bet.

[Cha]

25. "Shotsfired", huh? Well, then

Okay.. It's ON!



http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=1699651

Thank you, WillyT!

[garybeck]

27. Nate makes a **HUGE** error here.

"we’ve about reached the point where if Mr. Romney wins, it can only be because the polls have been biased against him."


Not so fast, Nate. You are that 9n our country most of the votes are cast on electronic voting systems that are vulnerable to tampering. Also dozens of documented cases of voter intimidation, registration tampering, area already being reported all over the country. THESE THINGS can also account for differences between polls and election results.

So if Romney wins, there are two possibilities:

1) The polls are squewed against him

2) Election fraud

[dreamnightwind]

30. Yes, good point

#2 is what many of us are worried about.

[riderinthestorm]

37. Fraud. nt

[RomneyLies]

28. He basically says that the only way Mitt Romney wins

is if the unskewedpolls.com guy is right.

[felix_numinous]

29. Republicans and their pundits

--count on-- an ignorant populace. They bank on it.

[blkmusclmachine]

32. Wait til they find out Mr. Silver used to write on DailyKos.

Facts have a liberal bias.

[Beartracks]

35. Dear MSM: Please "inform rather than entertain." Thank you. n/t

[dorksied]

39. Nate Silver is the man. I'd love to meet him and shake his hand.

[Quixote1818]

40. He is like the Moneyball guy only with polling. Taking on conventional wisdom and improving

forecasting.

[RainDog]

41. k&r n/t

[Iggy]

46. GOOD, Becasue the mainstream pundits are more or less irrelevant

I stopped paying attention to these parasites twenty years ago.

[George II]

47. Interesting take, considering that he never once mentioned "mainstream political pundits"!

[heppcatt]

50. The newz is just another TV show...

n/t

[lobodons]

53. Nate Silver may have forgotten a few things

OH SOS voter suppression, experimental voting machine software patches and the loss of 33k registrations

FL 5 hour voting lines due to Gov. Scott refusal to extend voting hours

[MjolnirTime]

55. oooga booga! the sky is falling!!

[cilla4progress]

54. Does Nate factor in turnout?