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onenote

(46,147 posts)
Fri Aug 12, 2022, 09:05 AM Aug 2022

The risk of assuming facts not in evidence

The report that the documents identified in the search warrant included documents relating to nuclear weapons has triggered a wave of assumptions not yet supported by the reported information. in particular, here and elsewhere, people are assuming that the sought-after documents were nuclear codes, or nuclear weapons locations, or nuclear technology. Some go further and assume that the documents in question have been provided to Putin or the Saudis or some other third party.

Yet, the only thing actually reported is that documents relating to nuclear weapons were a subject of the search. What sort of documents? Unknown. More importantly, it has not been reported that any of the sought-after documents were found. Not everything named in a search warrant is always found in a search.

The risk in assuming too much that the results may not meet expectations, (something we've all experienced over the years when it comes to reports of this or that imminent action). More significantly, if the search didn't turn up the documents that folks are assuming it has turned up, Trump will use this in an effort to discredit the entire search. His post this morning (claiming the nuclear angle is a "hoax" ) suggests that is going to be the case. Remember, he knows what was in the warrant and what was found.

I hope the search found the most damning material possible, but I'm not going to count my chickens before they hatch.

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The risk of assuming facts not in evidence (Original Post) onenote Aug 2022 OP
Caution is warranted. There are any number of Tetrachloride Aug 2022 #1
Absolutely, thank you luv2fly Aug 2022 #2
In addition . . . werdna Aug 2022 #3
I see nothing wrong with speculation. Demsrule86 Aug 2022 #4
Exactly. I do it. Magoo48 Aug 2022 #38
They have to have a 100% solid case! imanamerican63 Aug 2022 #5
Very true, but Trump at least did suggest that evidence was planted gulliver Aug 2022 #6
You might be on to something KS Toronado Aug 2022 #12
Our prisons are full of People who claim innocence and things were planted. pwb Aug 2022 #35
The "nuclear" doc report is based on a leak, and not yet confirmed by DOJ. Fiendish Thingy Aug 2022 #7
I don't have a good sense of what's happening right now Sympthsical Aug 2022 #8
Good advice, but ....... 70sEraVet Aug 2022 #9
Good advice Farmer-Rick Aug 2022 #10
Drumpf says all factual scenarios are hoaxes, so how can you tell? judesedit Aug 2022 #11
Deep throat attribution...follow the money Moostache Aug 2022 #13
Yup. Where there's smoke there's fire. Joinfortmill Aug 2022 #45
I agree with your assessment up to the point of implying when Trump says it's a hoax, that's true. msfiddlestix Aug 2022 #14
I certainly didn't intend to suggest that his claiming its a hoax would be true. onenote Aug 2022 #36
With Trump you can ALWAYS count your chickens before they hatch! ElementaryPenguin Aug 2022 #15
Your point in general is a good one iemanja Aug 2022 #16
Thanks for your concern. orangecrush Aug 2022 #17
Especially since everyone knows the "good stuff"..... jaxexpat Aug 2022 #18
... orangecrush Aug 2022 #46
We should be pushing every negative angle we can against the fascists just like they do to US yaesu Aug 2022 #19
My worry is that somebody in Trump's circle planted that, to make the actual crime not seem so bad. Greg K Aug 2022 #20
All I know for sure is Mr.Bill Aug 2022 #21
Good observation! n/t ewagner Aug 2022 #23
Thank you. Despite knowing the creature we're dealing with yonder Aug 2022 #22
Philip Rucker, the editor on this piece in the WaPo, did say on MSNBC Bev54 Aug 2022 #24
Best case scenario JMCKUSICK Aug 2022 #25
Thank you. The word "nuclear" definitely excites people, often... NNadir Aug 2022 #26
Every part of this story has triggered a wave of assumptions not yet supported..... brooklynite Aug 2022 #27
The speculation here on DU is disappointing... kirby Aug 2022 #28
Good short analysis. Thank you Escurumbele Aug 2022 #29
I've even seen it hinted the real evidence got buried with Ivana. appleannie1 Aug 2022 #30
I never count Traildogbob Aug 2022 #31
Except Merritt Garland. He knows what we know and we know that if not much of Ninga Aug 2022 #32
You never know! LeftInTX Aug 2022 #33
traiotr might not know what he has Marthe48 Aug 2022 #34
Finger prints on the papers could tell a story? pwb Aug 2022 #37
Very wise to not make assumptions and jump to conclusions. liberalla Aug 2022 #39
I think even "nuclear weapons" is facts not in evidence FBaggins Aug 2022 #40
latest story says nuclear weapons LymphocyteLover Aug 2022 #43
OTOH, it all makes sense for why the DOJ would take this unprecedented step LymphocyteLover Aug 2022 #41
latest clearly says "nuclear weapons" LymphocyteLover Aug 2022 #42
Agree. But my $ is on there were nuclear docs in the box. Joinfortmill Aug 2022 #44

Tetrachloride

(9,625 posts)
1. Caution is warranted. There are any number of
Fri Aug 12, 2022, 09:09 AM
Aug 2022

reasons for a warrant: money laundering, fraud, election tampering, paternity suits, other military aspects.

ty for your post

luv2fly

(2,673 posts)
2. Absolutely, thank you
Fri Aug 12, 2022, 09:14 AM
Aug 2022

All the fist and chest bumping is unwarranted at this point in time. We have very few facts upon which to base all the assumptions being tossed around.

That won't stop people though.

werdna

(1,231 posts)
3. In addition . . .
Fri Aug 12, 2022, 09:34 AM
Aug 2022

. . . we are a long way from knowing what documents were actually secured with the warrant. The reveal of the specifics of the warrant only point toward what was suspected/expected to be present. The inventory of what was taken
(and from where in the compound, maybe?) will be vague; it will take weeks/months to go through it all.

Magoo48

(6,721 posts)
38. Exactly. I do it.
Fri Aug 12, 2022, 11:46 AM
Aug 2022

But, I try to remember that speculations, like expectations, are often found walking hand in hand with disappointment.

gulliver

(13,986 posts)
6. Very true, but Trump at least did suggest that evidence was planted
Fri Aug 12, 2022, 09:48 AM
Aug 2022

He might not have mentioned the idea of "planting" if he didn't know that something bad was found.

Still, the idea that it was nuclear information could have been planted with the WaPo by a Trump ally to discredit the media and the DoJ. Conclusions should remain unjumped to for the time being.

KS Toronado

(23,727 posts)
12. You might be on to something
Fri Aug 12, 2022, 10:31 AM
Aug 2022

as to a tRumpie ally planting the info to rile up his base. Hope the WaPo checked their source out
real close before publishing.

pwb

(12,676 posts)
35. Our prisons are full of People who claim innocence and things were planted.
Fri Aug 12, 2022, 11:19 AM
Aug 2022

It is a punk excuse heard in every court room everyday.

Fiendish Thingy

(23,246 posts)
7. The "nuclear" doc report is based on a leak, and not yet confirmed by DOJ.
Fri Aug 12, 2022, 09:51 AM
Aug 2022

And, IMO, not relevant to the prosecution of the case against Trump.

While the presence of nuclear related documents at MAL might help persuade a jury, its not required to bring charges; neither is whether the documents were classified or not.

The main significance of nuclear documents is in how that helps the story dominate the news cycles, and keep voters aware, and hopefully, alarmed, at the severity of Trump’s crimes.

Sympthsical

(10,971 posts)
8. I don't have a good sense of what's happening right now
Fri Aug 12, 2022, 09:59 AM
Aug 2022

I figured wait a few days, see if the warrant is unsealed, and then move on from there.

There is just so. much. speculation. Twitter and journalists (but I repeat myself) spent an entire day demanding to see a warrant that was actually sealed.

I don't get a good sense that the media even knows what's really going on. It's all airy questioning, "What could this mean?! What could be there?" That's not information. That's just moving lips around to fill time.

I think the warrant will clear things up to a decent degree. We'll have a better sense of what we're looking at.

Right now, I genuinely have no idea. It was good Garland came out. He had to. If he were silent, Trump and his supporters would've filled that vacuum with whatever they wanted. You can't leave that sort of thing alone.

I know social media really doesn't know what's going on either though, lol. It's kind of fun to watch, as long as you (hope) people don't actually believe what they're filling empty space with. Because some if it is Grade A Wacky. Funny, but wacky.

I figure by Monday, it'll be sifted enough to get the shape of things. I'm not paid to real-time react to everything on Twitter, so it can be left alone for a day or two.

Farmer-Rick

(12,668 posts)
10. Good advice
Fri Aug 12, 2022, 10:19 AM
Aug 2022

It could be most anything.

But sometimes speculating can be fun. Just so you don't take your own imaginings as fact.

judesedit

(4,592 posts)
11. Drumpf says all factual scenarios are hoaxes, so how can you tell?
Fri Aug 12, 2022, 10:23 AM
Aug 2022

Makes me think the opposite of anything that liar says.

Moostache

(11,190 posts)
13. Deep throat attribution...follow the money
Fri Aug 12, 2022, 10:35 AM
Aug 2022

How many BILLIONS went from Saudis to Trump and family? 666 Park Avenue? Hundreds of miilions to billions reportedly in profits to Jarvanka?

I'd say that speculation is not beyond the pale here...

msfiddlestix

(8,178 posts)
14. I agree with your assessment up to the point of implying when Trump says it's a hoax, that's true.
Fri Aug 12, 2022, 10:36 AM
Aug 2022

One thing that psychopath has exposed from years ago, if Trump says "it's a hoax". it's almost always the opposite.

However, the rule of the broken clock could very well be in play.

We don't know yet.



onenote

(46,147 posts)
36. I certainly didn't intend to suggest that his claiming its a hoax would be true.
Fri Aug 12, 2022, 11:23 AM
Aug 2022

Even if the documents being sought aren't found, it doesn't mean that there wasn't good cause to search for them and that they may still be missing or stored elsewhere. It was just to make the point that if they aren't found, Trump will claim it proves that the search was unwarranted. Which, of course, would be bullshit.

ElementaryPenguin

(7,911 posts)
15. With Trump you can ALWAYS count your chickens before they hatch!
Fri Aug 12, 2022, 10:43 AM
Aug 2022

Trump never fails to exceed my worst fears of just what a putrid, soulless creature he truly is!

With Trump - always assume he's guilty of the worst crimes imaginable - and you'll never go wrong.

iemanja

(57,757 posts)
16. Your point in general is a good one
Fri Aug 12, 2022, 10:44 AM
Aug 2022

But with Trump we have learned that he regularly exceeds the worst people can think of.

 

jaxexpat

(7,794 posts)
18. Especially since everyone knows the "good stuff".....
Fri Aug 12, 2022, 10:48 AM
Aug 2022

on the warrant was written in invisible ink that only shows in the light of a full moon. And it's in a decipherable Klingon code. Darn Klingons and their codes to heck.

yaesu

(9,330 posts)
19. We should be pushing every negative angle we can against the fascists just like they do to US
Fri Aug 12, 2022, 10:49 AM
Aug 2022

even when they know it's not true. Taking the high road will just get US more yrs of tRump

Greg K

(599 posts)
20. My worry is that somebody in Trump's circle planted that, to make the actual crime not seem so bad.
Fri Aug 12, 2022, 10:49 AM
Aug 2022

And to make everyone look foolish for jumping on it.

Mr.Bill

(24,906 posts)
21. All I know for sure is
Fri Aug 12, 2022, 10:55 AM
Aug 2022

they were claiming something was planted before the search was even finished. You don't claim evidence was planted unless you know they are going to find something incriminating.

yonder

(10,293 posts)
22. Thank you. Despite knowing the creature we're dealing with
Fri Aug 12, 2022, 10:58 AM
Aug 2022

and until we have more info, caution should be taken to avoid falling into a crafty trap or risk being called out for jumping to conclusions.

Bev54

(13,432 posts)
24. Philip Rucker, the editor on this piece in the WaPo, did say on MSNBC
Fri Aug 12, 2022, 11:04 AM
Aug 2022

telephone interview that they did find and retrieve documents related to the Nuclear program.

NNadir

(38,069 posts)
26. Thank you. The word "nuclear" definitely excites people, often...
Fri Aug 12, 2022, 11:08 AM
Aug 2022

...in an exceedingly stupid way.

 

brooklynite

(96,882 posts)
27. Every part of this story has triggered a wave of assumptions not yet supported.....
Fri Aug 12, 2022, 11:08 AM
Aug 2022

That the nature of the blogosphere.

kirby

(4,534 posts)
28. The speculation here on DU is disappointing...
Fri Aug 12, 2022, 11:09 AM
Aug 2022

So much speculation and declaration of unknown things as facts. Disappointing.

Now the news media, including MSNBC, is suing for DOJ to release the affidavit for the search warrant which if done might make people feel happy but could poison / ruin any prosecution.

Traildogbob

(13,018 posts)
31. I never count
Fri Aug 12, 2022, 11:10 AM
Aug 2022

The chickens before they hatch, but I keep a close count of the eggs. They can damn sure keep you from starving to death. We got a bunch of eggs in our carton right now, with more being laid daily. The chicken coup is a gold mine. And I love going to get the new batch every morning. I’m at least gonna color my eggs like Easter time to enjoy looking at em. But we gotta stay vigil. That fucking “FOX 🦊” is circling the hen house to eat all the eggs AND the chickens to feed off of and destroy the whole damn thing. Garland is the guard dog standing out by the chickens and the daily eggs to end the Fox’s regime of terror.

Ninga

(9,012 posts)
32. Except Merritt Garland. He knows what we know and we know that if not much of
Fri Aug 12, 2022, 11:14 AM
Aug 2022

substance could have/was found, it would mean a deep nail in the coffin struck by the GQP.

Do,ya suppose that was the case…..”nothing to see here, move along”

LeftInTX

(34,310 posts)
33. You never know!
Fri Aug 12, 2022, 11:15 AM
Aug 2022

It's the tip of the iceberg!
My hunch: I think if there was a real national security concern they would have seized the documents in early 2021.

My hunch is the documents are like J Edgar Hoover's "political enemies" files. Mostly political dirt on people with a chance of some nuclear weapon info in them.




Marthe48

(23,178 posts)
34. traiotr might not know what he has
Fri Aug 12, 2022, 11:18 AM
Aug 2022

He probably had help selecting an packing the stolen material. I've probably got 27 boxes of family papers and even sort, I don't what is in every box.

I'm thinking of the scene in The Jerk, when Steve Martin is leaving his wife, and says, "This ashtray is all I need. And this chair. And then there is a shot of him walking away from the house laden with all of the things he decided he needed.

pwb

(12,676 posts)
37. Finger prints on the papers could tell a story?
Fri Aug 12, 2022, 11:31 AM
Aug 2022

Myself I do not need to know about any of this. The results I await. Assuming is all the right wing media does, we discuss.

liberalla

(11,089 posts)
39. Very wise to not make assumptions and jump to conclusions.
Fri Aug 12, 2022, 11:49 AM
Aug 2022

We will wait and see.


...but it is fun to speculate!

FBaggins

(28,706 posts)
40. I think even "nuclear weapons" is facts not in evidence
Fri Aug 12, 2022, 11:51 AM
Aug 2022

The reporting I've seen says only "classified nuclear documents"

Which doesn't have to involve weapons at all. It could be civilian nuclear power or military nuclear propulsion or foreign policy documents related to proliferation, enrichment, energy, etc..

LymphocyteLover

(9,853 posts)
41. OTOH, it all makes sense for why the DOJ would take this unprecedented step
Fri Aug 12, 2022, 12:02 PM
Aug 2022

and totally fits with other known facts like dump's extreme corruption and obsession with nukes, his ties to the Saudis and Putin

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