Status of the Alaska Special House Election

[brooklynite]

Mary Peltola DEM 56,892
Sarah Palin GOP 48,304
Nick Begich GOP 43,038
(96% counted)

Mail-in ballots will be tallied through the end of August, before RCV is applied.

Question: If positions hold, will Begich voters shift to Palin because she's not a Democrat? Or will they shift to Peltola because she's not Palin?

[samnsara]

1. havent they each marked a second choice?

[brooklynite]

3. Yes, but they won't apply them until all first round votes are counted.

[Bettie]

2. Not sure if you meant to do this

but you have numbers for the first two and a percentage for the last. So, it's hard to get a read on where it is at this point.

[DemocracyWins202]

4. Its very interesting question depends on if Begich

voters over half would have to switch Peltola in the second round in order for her to win, certainly doable.

[Claustrum]

5. Do you actually believe that people that voted republican will somehow switch to democrat

in a significant enough margin? Palin would win if the votes switch to her at a 2:1 ratio. I highly doubt there will be enough vote switch to maintain close to a 50/50 split for Peltola to win. This scenario is basically expected from the coverage I heard about the race. Peltola will rank 1 in the first stage of voting as republican votes are split and then whoever the republican remain will overtake the lead as round 2 of RCV begins.

[ColinC]

12. Begich is a Republican but shares a name and relation to a popular democrat

That in itself leads me to believe they are too moderate to vote for Palin as their second choice.

[Chainfire]

6. Alaskans will not send a Democrat to Washington.

[ColinC]

8. They have and they will

Although whether this is one of those times beats the heck outta me!

[ColinC]

7. I heard on the NPR today something that actually sounded logical

If begich stays in third, his supporters will probably move to peltola. If palin comes in third, her supporters will go to begich. So I think if this holds, we might see a peltola victory. That's my guess anyways.

[LeftInTX]

10. It's ranked choice

The odds are: Begich's supporters ranked Palin second
Peltola's supporters ranked Begich second.

Based on the current stats, Begich will be out and it will be Palin vs Petola. Palin could have picked up another 40,000, while Peltola won't pick up many.

So, it looks like Palin will win

[ColinC]

11. I can't imagine Begich voters picked Palin second.

Begich -even though he's a Republican, gets a lot of his support through sharing the name of a popular Democrat. This leads me to believe his supporters are far more moderate than Palin supporters. I think Peltola might have a shot.

[Polybius]

14. If people voted for him because of his last name then they are idiots

In many ways he's more conservative than Palin.

[ColinC]

15. Yeah I understand that

But I imagine he doesn't come across as nearly as insane as Palin would for most moderates.

[kentuck]

9. Good question.

Some may depend on the fortunes of their great Orange Leader. If he is indicted, who knows?

[Polybius]

13. This is why ranked-choice SUCKS!!!

I hate it more than anything in life, I wish the Supreme Court would strike it down. One vote per person!