Realistically, is Trump going down?

[brettdale]

I know we are hopeful, but in all seriousness will he go down, or are we
going to have to put up with him running in 2024?

[no_hypocrisy]

1. He has to now.

He has to be removed from the general population as he can't be trusted. He'll find another way to betray the country.

[LetMyPeopleVote]

2. TFG is going to be prosecuted. I don't see how you cannot, given this information

Link to tweet

[pwb]

3. He will get a Gag order, 5 years in house arrest and 5 years probation upon release.

My guess. No jail unless he pushes it and we know he can't resist.

[GuppyGal]

33. Yes some deal is gonna be cut

[Johnny2X2X]

4. He will be indicted

That I think is certain now.

[cloudbase]

5. He's buggered. n/t

[H2O Man]

6. Both.

[Iwasthere]

7. Your question and so many like it are troubling

In a sane world he would already be down. Our country and its security are in deep trouble. He could be sharing or selling copies of his treasures at this very moment.

[UTUSN]

27. Or if it were a peblian blue collar sailor

[Oneironaut]

8. No.

Will he lose in 2024 if he runs? Probably (and, hopefully). Will he suffer any worse than living his remaining years at Mar-a-Lago, running his mouth off on his failing joke of a Twitter knock off? Sadly, it’s highly unlikely.

[tinrobot]

9. Probably. The documents case is very straightforward and easy to prosecute.

There's zero doubt he did it and broke the law.

The Jan 6th case the Georgia case both have more room for doubt.

[RockRaven]

10. Oh, if he's alive in 2024 he will be running. That much is certain.

[herding cats]

11. I'm not saying he'll be convicted before 2024

I will say he'll be indicted and charged before then.

If we get really lucky he'll be the nominee, but I don't see that happening. Best we can hope for is he divides the nutters from the rest of the mainstream R's. Who are also mostly nuts anymore, so... it's gonna be a wild ride.

[Bobstandard]

12. No. He will land on a pillow

That pillow will support him at a level of comfort you will never experience. Our side will claim, “we go him!” Theirs, “see, if he was guilty they would send him to a federal lock up.”

Remember that Hitler went to jail briefly, then emerged to rule Germany and start a world war.

[herding cats]

20. "We go him?"

I need this explained for my simple understanding, please?

[LeftInTX]

24. Got?? Left off a t??

[herding cats]

25. Oh!

Now I see it! I thought it was a "thing" I'd missed.

My thanks to you!

[Thomas Hurt]

13. Being an old white rich man who was president and has no priors...

he won't do any time. They will fine the shit out of him and maybe home confinement.

[delisen]

14. Trump is going down. Everything is coming together.

Everyone’s effort is bearing fruit. The beauty is that there is no single hero and no single group, it is all of us. This means we can’t be stopped. We are in the Second American Revolution. It will be mainly bloodless and when it is complete we will have a collective sense of pride, purpose, and accomplishment that will enable us to confront the climate challenge and the authoritarianism challenge.

[alwaysinasnit]

15. FWIW, I don't think AG Garland would have OK'd the search of Mier-da-largo if he didn't

think he would eventually prosecute, and this case/situation seems to be the most solid (evidentiary-wise) of all of tfg's crimes.

[sarcasmo]

16. Magic 8 ball says, No jail time.

[LeftInTX]

17. No..Those surrounding him will go down

He will use the slobfather defense

However since everything he touches dies, it will hurt his political future.

[WarGamer]

18. Define "going down"

Going down as in prison time? 0-1% chance

Being convicted? 3-5% chance

Being brought to trial? 5-10% chance

Being indicted? 40-50% chance

Not running in 2024?

50/50

[Irish_Dem]

26. About the same probability I estimate. My numbers:

(All of these numbers are in a state of flux and can change daily since new data comes to light every hour.
The more data, the more accurate the numbers.)


Prison: 0% chance.

The most we can hope for is home detention and please dear God a gag order. This is 10-20% chance.

Brought to trial: I agree 5-10% chance

Indicted: About 40% but this number is spinning like crazy right now and could go higher with every passing day as shit hits the fan. Or plummet depending upon political winds shifting.

Not running in 2024: 40% chance he won't run. 60% chance he will run.

Trump might be torn about this. One the one hand he knows he is immune if he runs and he can raise a heck of a lot of money. But maybe it is dawning on him that if he STFU and keeps a lower profile the GOP might do some covering for him.

[WarGamer]

28. Trump's biggest problem...

Is he's not a smart man and he's controlled by his impulses and emotions.

IF he were smart... and he's not. He would call for a major national speech audience from the networks and announce he's NOT running and talk endlessly about "evil libs" and urge all followers to VOTE and not commit violence. THen he would throw gis full support behind DeSantis.

His sheep would all jump on the DeSantis bandwagon and that'd be the candidate.

Trump benefits by getting "out of the fire"... I'm inclined to think the DoJ might make a different deal for "private citizen staying out of politics" Trump rather than political foe Trump.

Trump gets to play with Truth Social, play golf... do all that crap... be worshiped by the horde and stay out of jail.

And McCarthy might even let him be SOTH for a few months to troll DC...

[mrsadm]

40. My cynical side says this scenario is most likely

[Irish_Dem]

43. I agree and disagree:

While Trump is not intelligent by most standards and very poorly educated, he has a dangerous cunning and is street smart.

Some of his buffoon act is just that, an act. His affable idiot routine hides how very dangerous he is.

If you think about it, what he has accomplished is quite remarkable.

He has committed crimes of the century and has a good chance of getting away with all of it.

Starting out as a typical white collar con man, he became the most powerful man in the world.

Made a fortune while in the WH, committed the most heinous of crimes and we are all legitimately
wondering if there will be any consequences.

No small feat for sure. This was not accomplished by a stupid man.

Yes he is driven by his psychopathology, his narcissism and sociopathy. But these traits enabled him to rise to
power and evade consequences. He has a cult leader charisma which propelled him to position, power, control and wealth.

For him to suddenly change his strategy might be considered foolish. His strategy has been very successful.
His bluffing, threats, extortion, blackmail, etc., might just work. One might argue that if he just doubles and triples down, he will scare people into backing off.

Telling his cult followers to leave him and go to DeSantis is giving away his major leverage which is to have these people burn down the country for him and scare everyone off. This would be foolish and I think Trump's survival instincts would prevent him from doing so.

I do agree very much that Trump could have gotten away with everything, the GOP would have totally covered up his crimes, the FBI would have picked up the stolen classified documents and that would be the end of it. The national security damage would have been hidden from the public, etc etc.

But I think that window is shut now. His major mistake was not his crimes but his damaging the GOP brand and taking on Mitch McConnell. 1/6 was a big mistake. Going into Mitch's place of business, the Capitol building, threatening to kidnap and kill a GOP Vice President, making a violent spectacle of the GOP. Damaging McConnell's power base was an unforgivable sin with Trump's public attacks against him.

But yes if Trump had played the end game better he would be heralded as a GOP hero, live in the lap of luxury and want for nothing. All of his crimes would have been covered up.

No I don't think McCarthy is going to do much of anything. I think McConnell and the FBI have squashed him.

[Chainfire]

19. We will find out in the next few months.

Either Trump fails or Democracy fails. I think that those are the only two alternatives. Not much at stake, huh?

[lindalou65]

34. Our democracy is done if Trump is not charged and convicted IMO

I agree with you Chainfire. There is no choice--either he gets arrested and charged or we can kiss our democracy goodbye.

[Treefrog]

21. Just my opinion, I think he'll skate.

Whether he'll run or not, I'm afraid to even think.

[LeftInTX]

23. His klingons will go down

Pretty soon there won't be any left. He will not have a political future.

[Meowmee]

22. There is no way to know

I would prefer if he just expires, from natural causes of course, that is the only way to be rid of him for good. If he is prosecuted etc. a jury will have to convict him. That jury will have to not have dumpers and the like on it. Then a judge has to sentence him. I doubt he will have severe consequences if all of this happens but let us hope I am wrong.

[ForgedCrank]

29. I think it

would probably be wise to get used to the idea of him running in 2024.
Not the answer I want to give, but I'm a bit more on the realistic side.

[dweller]

30. Down, hard

The thump will be heard in other rooms/floors at Merde Loada …
Massive coronary or cerebral hemorrhage … fatal

He’s dead Jim


✌🏻

[brush]

31. There's too much crime to ignore in the document theft.

If he isn't indicted, we might as well fold up the no-one-is-above-the-law motto, as well as democracy because the neo-fascist, maga republicans will know they can get away with anything.

Here's a link about the CIA warning that too many agents were getting killed or turned. Did trump sell humint info that was in his basement? I sure wouldn't put it past him.

https://www.businessinsider.com/cia-cable-tells-agents-informants-being-killed-or-turned-report-2021-10?op=1

[IBEWVET]

32. He should be indicted

But any jury will have a trumper on it who will vote not guilty despite any evidence

[niyad]

35. Stroke out already, you F'n, murdering, orange TRAITOR**.

[doc03]

36. Seriously we have been hearing this BS for 5 or 6 years. For one thing if those documents were so

secret and it could harm our national security, why did they let him sit on them for 18 f---g months?

[RussBLib]

37. Yes

This document saga will get him if nothing else does, but he will have multiple indictments.

His luck has run out. Finally.

[BlueLucy]

38. Yes! He finally is going down. nt

[PufPuf23]

39. I am confused why Trump is not in custody now and DOJ is not digging much deeper immediately

to excise the blights on our democracy.

Time is the enemy.

War or economic or environmental catastrophe or even an election could derail addressing the issue.

The media is pathetic and complicit.

Appreciate those with optimism.

[BlackSkimmer]

45. Same here.

[Hugin]

41. Really, has anyone been charged or indicted, yet?

For anything?

[Hortensis]

42. If he is not indicted, most responses to this question might offer

an important part of an explanation as to why. Between a lack of commitment to doing right and resulting failure to hold a stand among some on the left and outrage on a right battling to win and avoid their own culpability, it's possible that responsible citizens with the moral strength to insist on doing what is best for the nation, whatever that seemed to be, would be a minority.

[BlackSkimmer]

44. Nope. nt