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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsSenate Rating Changes: Arizona, Pennsylvania to Leans Democratic
UVA Center for PoliticsThe end of the summer has been kind to Democrats. President Joe Bidens approval rating, though still clearly weak, is improving, and House generic ballot polling shows a political environment that, at least at the moment, is roughly neutral. A few recent House special elections, specifically last week in upstate New York, give some credence to the reality of that polling. Gas prices, perhaps the easiest-to-notice indicator of the broader inflation problem, have fallen sharply from their spike earlier this summer, though one cannot predict with any level of certainty where gas prices will be on Election Day.
Democrats, hoping to make this election more of a choice than a referendum, are benefiting from some damaged Republican candidates in several key races as well as the emergence of abortion as a key issue in the aftermath of the Supreme Courts Dobbs decision and perhaps also from a continued focus on a particularly visible former president, Donald Trump. We have detailed many of these factors in our recent updates on the overall House, Senate, and gubernatorial picture.
Monday is Labor Day, a traditional campaign kickoff date that now is more of a signal that the never-ending campaign season is nearing conclusion. So we think its time to make a couple of key rating changes in the Senate. These changes reflect improving odds of Democrats holding their tiny majority, but still suggest an overall battle for the majority that is effectively a Toss-up.
We are moving 2 of our 4 Toss-ups, Arizona and Pennsylvania, from Toss-up to Leans Democratic, signifying a small Democratic edge in these 2 closely-watched contests. Our new Senate ratings are shown in Map 1. They reflect 49 seats at least leaning Democratic (including those not on the ballot this year), and 49 seats at least leaning Republican, with just 2 Toss-ups: Georgia and Nevada.
Democrats, hoping to make this election more of a choice than a referendum, are benefiting from some damaged Republican candidates in several key races as well as the emergence of abortion as a key issue in the aftermath of the Supreme Courts Dobbs decision and perhaps also from a continued focus on a particularly visible former president, Donald Trump. We have detailed many of these factors in our recent updates on the overall House, Senate, and gubernatorial picture.
Monday is Labor Day, a traditional campaign kickoff date that now is more of a signal that the never-ending campaign season is nearing conclusion. So we think its time to make a couple of key rating changes in the Senate. These changes reflect improving odds of Democrats holding their tiny majority, but still suggest an overall battle for the majority that is effectively a Toss-up.
We are moving 2 of our 4 Toss-ups, Arizona and Pennsylvania, from Toss-up to Leans Democratic, signifying a small Democratic edge in these 2 closely-watched contests. Our new Senate ratings are shown in Map 1. They reflect 49 seats at least leaning Democratic (including those not on the ballot this year), and 49 seats at least leaning Republican, with just 2 Toss-ups: Georgia and Nevada.
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Senate Rating Changes: Arizona, Pennsylvania to Leans Democratic (Original Post)
brooklynite
Aug 2022
OP
Butterflylady
(3,537 posts)1. O, for heavens sake, PA leaning democratic.
PA is a definite democratic. Not all Pennsylvania voters are bozos. This is why I do not believe in polls, especially in these times.
brooklynite
(94,384 posts)2. Nothing to do with polls...
Remind us who Pennsylvania voted for in 2016 (Senate and President)
PortTack
(32,715 posts)3. Agree..total nonsense. Whether it's a poll or just an opinion
brooklynite
(94,384 posts)5. This isn't a poll or an opinion...
UVA Center for Politics does detailed analysis on House, Senate and Governor ratings.
IronLionZion
(45,380 posts)4. Hoping for Georgia, Wisconsin, and Nevada too