I work in the media

[1gobluedem]

In Michigan. I've been flooded with press releases for weeks from every possible special interest group you could imagine. I've also been following the polls pretty closely which, despite a slight Romney bounce after the first debate, have always had President Obama in the lead here in US automaker country.

Suddenly tonight I'm getting messages from the Campaign to Defeat Barack Obama and Take Back America claiming that Romney has quietly taken the lead in Michigan because the Obama campaign hasn't spent any money here. This is based on a Fox News Detroit poll. It's nonsense, of course, but am I missing something somewhere? Everything I've seen shows the lead increasing.

[caraher]

1. "Fox News Detroit" is all you need to know, I think <nt>

[MountainMazza]

2. I think it's propaganda from the rep. sorts

[Spazito]

3. PPP poll for Michigan...

from yesterday:

Obama leads by 6, Stabenow by 13 in Michigan

Raleigh, N.C. – PPP's final poll of the cycle in Michigan finds Democrats headed for victory in both the Presidential and Senate races. Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney 52-46, consistent with the 6-8 point lead we've found for him in all of our polling since the Republican convention. Debbie Stabenow leads Pete Hoekstra 55-42 in a race that never really got competitive.

Mitt Romney would have had to do 2 things to win Michigan: run up the score with independents and get a decent amount of crossover support from Democratic voters. But he's done neither. Obama is leading 49/46 with independents. And although there's very little crossover voting occurring, his share of Republicans (8%) is actually higher than the 7% of Democrats Romney is getting.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/michigan/

All is good for Obama and Stabenow in Michigan.

[frazee]

4. (1) The polling firm had a 2.1% response rate.

(2) During a quick review of their report, I saw no mention of cell phones, therefore I think it's a landline only survey (I could be wrong).

(3) They were the last poll to have Romney up -- by 3.8 points in August; everybody else has had Obama up.

(4) I expect "house" bias.

(5) In any case, always expect an anomalous poll now and then. It's the nature of the business.

(6) Don't worry. We got this.

[standingtall]

5. I looked at some of the crosstabs

They oversampled people over 65, and under sampled just about everyone else. For example they only polled 8% African Americans, although African Americans make up at least 14% of the state. Also they don't poll cell phones. I guess they give themselves some cover by oversampling women, but how many of those women are white, and over 65?

[1gobluedem]

6. Thanks, all

I have pretty much reached my limit for electioneering but that one startled me. Even though I know there is no way Michigan is going red in this election.