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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsTexas Gov. Greg Abbott widens lead on Beto O'Rourke in new poll
Dallas Morning NewsAccording to a new poll from The Dallas Morning News and the University of Texas at Tyler, Abbott leads ORourke 47% to 38%.
The poll, conducted Sept. 6-13, surveyed 1,268 registered voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points.
Abbotts recent flood of TV ads, which for weeks went unanswered, and voters slight rightward tilt on abortion, the border and crime may have helped the two-term incumbent build on a 46%-39% lead in August, two political scientists agreed.
yankee87
(2,825 posts)Fear is winning. I cant believe how screwed up Texas is.
GenXer47
(1,204 posts)a Texan climate change migrant begging me for help.
My little blue city has been overrun with Texans. License plates dont lie. Theyre everywhere.
cilla4progress
(26,525 posts)they are NOT sending their best!
2naSalit
(102,793 posts)Montana is their first choice for relocation and I'm sure our insurrectionist governor and legislature are encouraging them.
roamer65
(37,953 posts)That eventually will enable us to block them from northward migration.
blogslug
(39,167 posts)I guess I'll withhold my donation money and not vote at all this November.
brooklynite
(96,882 posts)blogslug
(39,167 posts)And I will vote for them too.
Sorry to disappoint you.
hamsterjill
(17,577 posts)I dont believe in polls. Im mot sure whether Beto will win or not (because the fix is probably already in), but I dont think we should give up.
Makes me wonder about some comments made on DU. Hmmm
.
obamanut2012
(29,369 posts)agree
former9thward
(33,424 posts)hamsterjill
(17,577 posts)Am I right? Or you wouldnt need to ask that question.
former9thward
(33,424 posts)I am wondering what it is.
hamsterjill
(17,577 posts)With voter suppression and gerrymandering. I'm not sure that the Texas Democratic party would admit to there being one, but anyone who lives in Texas is going to understand.
Republicans don't necessarily play fair down here, you know.
forthemiddle
(1,459 posts)Voter suppression is always a fear, but lets face it, Texas is still Red.
PufPuf23
(9,852 posts)If Abbott is flooding media with ads etc., a rational response is to increase the budget for more money for Beto to compete.
jimfields33
(19,382 posts)For some reason they havent transitioned to likely voter yet. That could change things.
Raven123
(7,797 posts)tritsofme
(19,900 posts)Initech
(108,783 posts)Is the current GOP mindset. Fuck.
walkingman
(10,864 posts)not that many assholes in this State?? I'm beginning to think there is something in the water.
Celerity
(54,407 posts)exploding.
I have posted extensively on this for some time.
walkingman
(10,864 posts)make them prone to vote for a party that basically has an ideology that is racist, xenophobic, misogynistic, and just plain mean and nasty. Oh wait, that fits the definition of an evangelical. WOW.
Celerity
(54,407 posts)The Latino population is drifting more and more to the RW as so many are going fundie evangelical that they are now the fastest growing ethnic group for evangelicals, and these converts are far more conservative and likely to vote Rethug.
For the first time ever, less than half of US Hispanics are now Catholic, the first ever for any large Hispanic population on the planet. Let that sink in.
In 2014, 11% of US evangelicals were Latino. 2 or 3 years ago it was up to 19%. Likely easily over 20% now. Thousands of small evangelical seed churches are being systematically set up by Latinos. The whole thing is being driven by the younger cohorts, not a bunch of ageing Boomers who are deciding to go hardcore con in religion and politics.
The Fastest-Growing Group of American Evangelicals
A new generation of Latino Protestants is poised to transform our religious and political landscapes.
https://www.theatlantic.com/culture/archive/2021/07/latinos-will-determine-future-american-evangelicalism/619551/
https://archive.ph/O3tMa

In 2007, when Obe and Jacqueline Arellano were in their mid-20s, they moved from the suburbs of Chicago to Aurora, Illinois, with the dream of starting a church. They chose Aurora, a midsize city with about 200,000 residents, mostly because about 40 percent of its population is Latino. Obe, a first-generation Mexican American pastor, told me, We sensed God wanted us there. By 2010, the couple had planted a church, the Protestant term for starting a brand-new congregation. This summer, the Arellanos moved to Long Beach, California, to pastor at Light & Life Christian Fellowship, which has planted 20 churches in 20 years. Their story is at once singular and representative of national trends: Across the United States, more Latino pastors are founding churches than ever before, a trend that challenges conventional views of evangelicalism and could have massive implications for the future of American politics.
Latinos are leaving the Catholic Church and converting to evangelical Protestantism in increased numbers, and evangelical organizations are putting more energy and resources toward reaching potential Latino congregants. Latinos are the fastest-growing group of evangelicals in the country, and Latino Protestants, in particular, have higher levels of religiositymeaning they tend to go to church, pray, and read the Bible more often than both Anglo Protestants and Latino Catholics, according to Mark Mulder, a sociology professor at Calvin University and a co-author of Latino Protestants in America. At the same time, a major demographic shift is under way. Arellano, who supports Light & Lifes Spanish-speaking campus, Luz y Vida, told me, By 2060, the Hispanic population in the United States is expected to grow from 60 million to over 110 million. None of this is lost on either Latino or Anglo evangelical leadership: They know they need to recruit and train Latino pastors if theyre going to achieve what Arellano describes as our vision to see that the kingdom of God will go forward and reach more people and get into every nook and cranny of society.
The stakes of intensified Latino evangelicalism are manifold, and they depend on what kind of evangelicalism prevails across the country. The term evangelical has become synonymous with a voting bloc of Anglo cultural conservatives, but in general theological terms, evangelicals are Christians who believe in the supremacy of the Bible and that they are compelled to spread its gospel. Some Christians who identify with the theological definition fit the political stereotype, but others dont. Thats true among evangelical Latino leaders toothey have very different interpretations of how the teachings of Jesus Christ call them to act. Every pastor I spoke with told me that they want to see more Latino pastors in leadership positions, and they each had a different take on what new Latino leadership could mean for the future of evangelicalism. When we spoke over the phone, Samuel Rodriguez, the president of the National Hispanic Christian Leadership Conference and the pastor of New Season Worship, in Sacramento, California, told me, Were not extending our hand out, asking, Can you help us plant churches? Were coming to primarily white denominations and going, You all need our help. This is a flipping of the script.
Although Latino congregations are too diverse to characterize in shorthand, one of the few declarative statements that can be made about Latino Protestants is a fact borne out with numbers: They are likelier than Latino Catholics to vote Republican. The expansion of Latino evangelicalism bucks assumptions that Democrats and progressives will soon have a clear advantage as the white church declines and the Hispanic electorate rises. Some counterintuitive things that have happened [in our national politics] would make more sense if we better understood the faith communities that exist within Latinx Protestantism, Mulder told me over the phone, alluding to the differing perspectives Latinos hold on many issues, including immigration, and how more Latinos voted for former President Donald Trump in 2020 than in 2016. According to the Public Religion Research Institute, Protestant affiliation correlated more with Hispanic approval of Trumps job in office than age or gender.
snip
excellent longform article, much more at the top link
There is a link in the article that references the Religious Landscape Study by Pew
in 2014 11% of evangelicals were Latino.

Now, the latest numbers from Pew show it is up to 19% (in less that 7 years)
It is likely over 20% now and growing rapidly, driven by the younger gens,
less than half of Latinos in the US are now Catholic, which is pretty amazing
https://www.pewforum.org/religious-landscape-study/racial-and-ethnic-composition/latino/

also, there is this:
The Newest Texans Are Not Who You Think They Are
The record influx of recent arrivals from all over might be exactly what the state needs. That includes Californians. (And no, theyre not turning Texas blue.)
https://www.texasmonthly.com/news-politics/newest-texans-who-are-they/

snip
Whatever their ethnicities, Californians are coming to Texas in much higher numbers than are migrants from any other state. In 2019 about 42 percent of net domestic immigrants came from California. For all the hyperventilating about Californians ruining certain Texas cities, however, the fastest-growing parts of the state owe much of their growth to Texans shuffling around from city to city. In fact, a primary reason Texas is growing so fast is that we tend to stick around as compared to natives of other states, meaning theres less out-migration to offset the in-migration. About 82 percent of people born in Texas still live here, making it the so-called stickiest state in the country.
Bill Fulton, director of the Kinder Institute for Urban Research at Rice University, in Houston, points out that basically all the population growth is in the Texas Triangle, the relatively tight space defined by the DallasFort Worth, Houston, and AustinSan Antonio regions. He recently wrote a book with former San Antonio mayor Henry Cisneros, and we found that the Texas Triangle favorably compared to virtually all other mega-regions in the U.S., including Southern California and the Northeast Corridor. It is a true economic powerhouse.
Thats just one of the ways Texass population growth is changing the landscape. In the booming cities, Fulton points out, the influx of a young professional class has led to a flowering of high-rise and mid-rise apartment buildings, as well as multiunit home lots. At the same time, suburbs have become more diverse than they were in the days of white flight from urban neighborhoods, in the sixties, in part because today gentrifying city neighborhoods are edging out non-white residents. Rural and small-town Texas, meanwhile, is shrinking. In fact, 142 of the states 254 counties are declining in population, some of them precipitously. Schleicher County, between San Angelo and Sonora, lost 29 percent of its population in ten years, the steepest drop in the state.
The diversification of the suburbs could fundamentally alter the political map by changing reliable Republican standbys to perennial toss-ups. Dying small towns carry less electoral weight. Gerrymandering of districts, now pursued as avidly by Republicans as it once was by Democrats, will continue to redraw electoral maps to maintain the current political order. But at some point, likely soon, the old assumptions will simply no longer hold true, and the keys to winning Texas will change.



walkingman
(10,864 posts)Demovictory9
(37,113 posts)Response to walkingman (Reply #8)
Celerity This message was self-deleted by its author.
bronxiteforever
(11,212 posts)If it is a state that favors interstate vigilantes hunting women seeking to exercise their reproductive rights, kidnapping refugee children and dropping them off miles from help and
Investigating the parents of trans kids, I dont see how we can ever win because the majority of the population is an odious collection of bullies and misogynistic, racist slime balls.
PortTack
(35,820 posts)Picaro
(2,393 posts)This is intended to be depressing and it is.
Beto just isnt catching fire here. Abbot is a spectacularly bad governor and is also a fascist.
While I will vote and vote democratic the various attack ads seem to be having 0 impact.
It seems obvious that Texas voters dont care that after multiple mass shootings Abbot supported and signed a bill getting rid of any licensing requirements for handguns. They also dont seem to care about reproductive freedom. Or the completely botched response to a cold snap in February of 21 that killed hundreds. And these polled voters dont seem to be worried about the illegal use of state power to persecute trans children.
The voters also seem to accept that their AG, Ken Paxton, has a number of felony charges against him. But he has been very successful in dodging any deposition on a open and shut securities fraud case.
Arghhhh!
MagickMuffin
(18,318 posts)I watch his town hall videos and the venues are always packed. Theres a lot of republicans that say they are voting for Beto.
Block walk, call centers can use all our help getting people registered and voting. We can do this.
blm
(114,658 posts)hamsterjill
(17,577 posts)Im an old jackass and Im hoping the younger generation saves us.
SheilaAnn
(10,711 posts)SoCalDavidS
(10,599 posts)Initech
(108,783 posts)pinkstarburst
(2,020 posts)per KXAN 52% of respondents approved of migrants being bussed to other cities. 30 something percent disapproved.
The trouble with Abbott/Beto is that while many hate Abbott's position on guns and abortion and everything else, they agree with his position on border control and currently nothing is being done to secure the border, which is causing harm to border communities. Beto is the leader we need. I truly wish the current administration would come up with solutions to secure the border but that hasn't happened and so much as I hate it, I don't think Beto (or any democrat) can win at this point.
Mad_Machine76
(24,957 posts)Republicans dont want to do anything to help bc they want to keep it a wedge issue indefinitely.
hamsterjill
(17,577 posts)Anyone living anywhere near the border in Texas knows its not secure. The Administration needs to address that fact; not keep insisting that it is secure.
Mad_Machine76
(24,957 posts)as opposed to a "not secure" border even look like? Right wingers throw that term around all the time but I have no idea what they mean by it. 0 successful border crossings?
hamsterjill
(17,577 posts)But it does NOT look like - - -
Schools locked down several times per month because border patrol agents are chasing armed people who have crossed the border illegally and are driving through neighborhoods bailing out in all directions.
It doesnt look like ranchers coming home to find their fences cut so that people who have crossed illegally can trespass upon their land and allow livestock to get out through the cut fences. There have been horses and bulls that weigh massive amounts let loose on highways. Not only is it a danger to the animals but a car traveling 60 miles an hour at night that hits one of those animals can cause a lot of damage and injury to occupants.
It doesnt look like the numerous pictures and videos of people who have crossed the border illegally dying in tractor trailer rigs because the smugglers who they paid to get them across the border left them there to die and someone is tasked with finding them.
It doesnt look like babies that are found abandoned because a coyote has decided that a crying child is a liability, or a small child cant keep up with the pace.
No, a secure border does NOT look like that. It would be a positive thing if the Administration addressed these issues.
XanaDUer2
(15,772 posts)bluecollar2
(3,622 posts)Hardly bastions of independent reporting or thinking..
SoCalDavidS
(10,599 posts)Seems like when they favor our candidate, theyre A+ and wonderful. When they dont, lots of excuses as to why theyre unreliable.
DavidDvorkin
(20,589 posts)Denialism does no good.
Polybius
(21,900 posts)I know he's a man of honor, but he needs to hold his nose and move to the right. Just say something conservative once in a while. It's Texas.
hamsterjill
(17,577 posts)For the families of the victims in Uvalde; and
For women everywhere.
The chips will fall where they may, but Im not throwing in the towel based on some stupid poll.
Act_of_Reparation
(9,116 posts)No one posts these things because they want you to give up and go home.
If we're not doing well, then we need to know about it before election day.
hamsterjill
(17,577 posts)Elections are fluid and one never knows until the bitter end.
I dont know if Beto will win or lose, but I see a helluva lot bigger crowds at his rallies than Ive seen before.
brooklynite
(96,882 posts)hamsterjill
(17,577 posts)But your post #9 in this thread was concerning to me
for a brief nano second.
brooklynite
(96,882 posts)Assuming you have finite resources, every dollar you give to a campaign that isn't competitive is a dollar you didn't give to a campaign that is, and we need to win the competitive ones. Feeling virtuous is valueless if we lose to the Republicans.
hamsterjill
(17,577 posts)Because hes behind in a poll that you found and posted, and you think hes no longer competitive?
Sorry, I dont buy that.
Ill continue to support whoever I feel like supporting and I hope all DUers do the same.
brooklynite
(96,882 posts)Not at this point. Is that "cold and heartless"? You bet it is. That's the situation we find ourselves in.
Republicans won't be investing millions in knocking off safe Democratic Governors; they'll target the vulnerable ones. Unless you have data that shows otherwise, I don't see Abbott as being vulnerable.
hamsterjill
(17,577 posts)But please remember that is all it is - an opinion.
W_HAMILTON
(10,333 posts)...and has for awhile now.
Same goes for Fetterman (even though he at least claims to support him now).
I have my thoughts as to why, and it certainly doesn't include electability.
hamsterjill
(17,577 posts)There are posters on DU who believe they are in the know and drop names on a regular basis. That has always bugged me.
There is a definite agenda with these types. For months, it was Andrew Cuomo. Now, Cuomo is what Cuomo is, but it got to the point that anyone should have been able to see that there was a very specific agenda. And then, Letecia James didnt even run for Governor
if you get my drift.
I have to wonder if these posters are so knowledgeable and connected, why they waste time on a message board.
Thanks for your reply. Glad to see that more people are catching on.
Hermit-The-Prog
(36,631 posts)brooklynite
(96,882 posts)Hermit-The-Prog
(36,631 posts)50 states.
brooklynite
(96,882 posts)I won't give to a SAFE D candidate at all. And in my model, a LIKELY D seat with a lot of money scores much lower. I'm targeting tossups where money is most useful.
And yes, sometimes its worth investing in a reach. Texas isn't one of them.
Hermit-The-Prog
(36,631 posts)Mad_Machine76
(24,957 posts)In Texas or in general?! They LIKE SB8?!
Sky Jewels
(9,148 posts)Didn't turn out that way.
I'm not expecting much out of Texas, but I'm still holding out a bit of hope that we can all be surprised on Nov. 8.
ecstatic
(35,075 posts)I'll have zero sympathy for what comes next, especially in Texas where it's been a depressing clown show for quite some time. Enjoy your ineffective, cowardly police and daily massacres. I'm sure your closed off border, open carry, and abortion bounties makes it all worth it. I'm done.
Samrob
(4,298 posts)Mr.Bill
(24,906 posts)to have him be governor of my state, he committed Texas political suicide when he said in a nationally televised debate, "Yes, we are coming for your AR-15s". That was a huge mistake, even though I agree with it.
Lurker Deluxe
(1,085 posts)Whatever your opinion on this issue ... that comes off as bad. And this shit has just begun.