Michigan Dems poised for blowout wins in November, Abortion ballot initiative up by 37%

[Johnny2X2X]

https://www.woodtv.com/news/elections/poll-whitmer-nessel-benson-lead-over-republican-challengers/

Holy sh*t!

Gov Whitmer leads Dixon by 16 points
AG Nessel leads DePerno by 9
SoS Benson leads Karamo by 14

Abortion rights ballot initiative to change the state's constitution leads 64% to 27%!!!!!!!!!!

Voting rights ballot initiative leads 70-20!!!

Michigan is staying blue and moving to dark blue and we're going to see some upsets down ticket.

In my US Congressional district, we're flipping (R) Peter Meijer's seat to a progressive Dem, Hillary Scholten, redistricting took this from a R+9 district to a D+3 one. Hillary's opponent is on tape saying women shouldn't be allowed to vote.

This is looking like a massive rout, and the down ticket race to watch is MI10 where (R) John James is currently up 4.5 points on (D) Carl Marlinga. This is a key race for control of the House. 4.5 points can be easily overcome just by turnout for the ballot initiatives alone.

Michigan is going to be its own Blue Wave in about 6 weeks.

[msfiddlestix]

1. Excellent News!

[Johnny2X2X]

3. The state has really seen a rebirth under Whitmer

She's been the most effective governor of my lifetime. She's gotten so much done in the most difficult times, and she's gotten the other side to come along more times than not.

And I tell this story to give some context. Several months ago a work colleague found a new job so we all went out to lunch. I know a couple of them are total Right Wingers, but it's not something we talk about. We had several people at the table so there were separate conversations going on, these 2 were complaining about all of the Covid safety measures Whitmer put in place to save lives and allow the state to get moving again. One of them matter of fact like stated, "She's out in November right?", the other responded, "Yeah, we'll get her out in November, it won't be close." I kind of chuckled, but didn't interject. She was always getting reelected, she's been outstanding and her approval ratings have been great, especially through Covid. And this was before Roe was overturned.

Republicans in Michigan are in for a rude awakening in November. It's going to be a bloodbath for them.

[msfiddlestix]

7. Thank you for sharing this story, it really helps in more ways than you know.

Last edited Thu Sep 22, 2022, 09:35 AM - Edit history (1)

you have better self control than I do, I wouldn't have been able to constrain myself.

good on you!

[Johnny2X2X]

9. It really stuck with me, that lunch

Like, they were blaming Whitmer for their kids having to wear mask in school, like that was a bad thing. Just goes to show how detached from reality their news sources must be. Whitmer is very popular here. They were just acting like her losing was a foregone conclusion.

Conservatives lack empathy to the extent that they live in a bubble they've created that lets them assume everyone thinks just like they do. To them it's just "common sense" that everyone thinks just like they do, to the rest of the state, we see the full rainbow of ideas.

For me, and most of the state, Whitmer has been great, but I can totally see why some on the Right don't agree. She butted heads with their god, Trump. She's been at the forefront of leading in the fight against Covid, something they believe isn't a threat to public health. She's a champion for a woman's right to choose, I can see why that's unappealing to about 1/4th the people here.

Dems must never lose that ability to see the other side's point of view, it's an incredible strength.

[msfiddlestix]

15. I don't have a problem why the "other side" believes what they do in many respects, but I find them

ignorant, deplorable, dispicable, and loathsome. And not able to separate their beliefs from who they are.

that's my failing, so it's good there are folks like you with the skill set to empathize to the degree which allows you to break bread with them.

[wryter2000]

17. I was making calls during the attempted recall of CA Gov. Newsom

One guy told me, "I can't wait to get him out of office." I chuckled silently to myself. "Hold onto that dream, Bucky." It wasn't close.

[roamer65]

13. If we didn't have term limits, she would be like Soapy Williams or Bill Milliken.

We would have her for at least 3 terms.

[Elessar Zappa]

2. Great news!

May it be nationwide.

[honest.abe]

4. That's seems to be a good indicator for a number of states.

[Johnny2X2X]

6. I hope so

It's hard for me to judge. I'm here in West Michigan, so I see what's happening in this state. Roe is a massive deal and Michigan has a very independent minded population. With abortion rights being directly on the ballot, I expect Dems up and down the ticket to outperform the polls. The state is extremely motivated to vote for abortion rights and the Republican candidates are all total extremists on that issue.

Other states need to make every election about abortion rights too, the Dems have never had an issue to run on as motivating as this one is right now.

[MiHale]

5. Returning to the "Great Great Lake State of Michigan"

Surrounded by blue water…a Blue Wave is expected.

[demmiblue]

8. Excellent news (I wish Levin would have run in the 10th, though)!

Where are you getting the polling data for that race? The most recent I can find are two from August... one showing James up by 9, and one showing Marlinga up by 2.

[Johnny2X2X]

10. Going by 538's US House average

Definitely could be close.

And John James just keeps losing elections in Michigan, he's too extremist.

[roamer65]

11. James is a disgrace.

I hope Marlinga wins.

[roamer65]

12. IMO. Reproductive rights proposal will near 70 pct in the final vote.

It will definitely drive turnout a LOT higher.

[Johnny2X2X]

14. Agree

And the big question for me is how well Dems can communicate that abortion rights are on the ballot in every single state across the country and in every single race. Michigan is easy, because it literally is on the ballot as a ballot initiative. How well Dems in state like Ohio and Virginia can communicate that Senate and House races are about women's rights to body autonomy will determine who controls the House and Senate.

It's the one issue Dems need to lean into harder than they've ever leaned into any single issue. If they do it means Dems will beat the polls in nearly every single race, some of them by a lot.

[wryter2000]

16. Holy sh*t, indeed!

First Kansas and now Michigan. And you're flipping a House seat? If you manage to keep the other one, that will be major. You go, MI!

[RussBLib]

18. Maybe they can root out more militias

Seems to be a lot of them up there.

[Johnny2X2X]

19. Michigan was 7-7 in Congress.

Census lost is a seat. So at worst it will be 7-6 Dems. We lost a seat, but it absolutely will be a GOP seat. Now MI-10 is the key, we can flip that just with good turnout. Michigan going from 7-7 to 8-5 in the US House would be huge to hold it.