Your 2022 midterm prediction based on the current political environment

[ColinC]

What do you think will happen?

19 votes, 1 pass | Time left: Unlimited
	Dems gain 20+ house seats and 10+Senate seats
	0 (0%)
	Dems gain 10-20 house seats and 3-10 Senate seats
	1 (5%)
	Dems gain 1-10 house seats, 1-3 Senate Seats
	13 (68%)
	Dems make no gains or losses in either chamber
	1 (5%)
	Dems lose 1-10 house seats, 1-3 Senate seats
	0 (0%)
	Dems lose 10-20 house seats, 3-10 Senate seats
	0 (0%)
	Dems lose 20+ house seats and 10+ Senate seats
	0 (0%)
	Dems keep the house and lose the Senate
	0 (0%)
	Dems keep the Senate and lose the house
	4 (21%)
	Something else that couldn't fit in the options.
	0 (0%)
	1 DU member did not wish to select any of the options provided.
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[Amishman]

1. Add one senate seat Senate, lose House

Win in PA, no other flips anywhere either direction. Go to 51 in Senate.

Lose House, Pubs end up in the low 220s for seats. Geography is not our friend.

[ColinC]

2. I think this would be an accurate take if Dobbs did not happen

But seeing the shift in female voters towards Democrats and that female turnout was at 53% in 2020, I expect things to go much better if this environment was in play still in November.

[Amishman]

4. My take is sustained inflation negates that

Inflation is unlikely to drop off significantly before the election. Dobbs tailwind offset by economic headwind.

[ColinC]

5. That's certainly a huge issue

But the abortion issue, while not the top issue overall -has so far brought Democratic leaning sporadic voters out in much higher numbers while polls show a huge shift of women voters towards Dems and substantially understate the overall turnout of female voters without even gauging then at 2020 levels.

[Polybius]

6. If Dobbs didn't happen, I think we lose 50+ and maybe 2 Senate seats

Whatever happens, I'm taking off on Election Day.

[ColinC]

7. I would put it 50 max, personally, but 50+ isn't crazy by any measure.

That being said I don't think 50+ is entirely out of the question for Dems this year, either. Entirely unprecedented of course, but not entirrrrely out of the question

[Polybius]

9. How do you feel about the Senate?

While I think we pick up two seats (PA and WI), four or even five is conceivably possible (OH, FL, NC). But we must not lose GA or NV.

[ColinC]

10. I think if today's environment still applies, we gain a minimum of 3-5 seats.

I'm thinking women turnout is going to be higher than 2020. If you just take crosstabs from current polls and adjust for 2020 levels, there is a pretty strong Dem advantage due to the shift of women towards Dems. Increase it by another 2-3 points for a post Dobbs election and it may be a blowout.

[Elessar Zappa]

3. I think we'll keep the House

and increase our numbers in the Senate. Republicans are getting more unpopular by the day.

[Meowmee]

8. I don't know

I havent been following it very much. I hope it goes our way of course. I have lost belief in things here mostly. Fortunately there are still a few good people around. Now if the idiots will just vote for them.

[Johnny2X2X]

11. I think we gain a couple Senate seats

And we lose a few House seats, the House is a coin flip 218-217 either way.