Trent Telenko on Russian Mobilization and the Coming Winter.

[Tomconroy]

Trent isn't always right but early last March he was the only person writing about how terrible Russian logistics were. There weren't many back then who thought Ukraine stood a chance in the war and he was one.
I think he's spot on about the disaster the mobilization will prove to be and the prospects of the Russian army this winter. Definitely worth a read:

Link to tweet

Trent also recommends reading this guy Mark Sumner at the Daily Kos and he does seem to have really accurate, not always optimistic reports daily:
https://m.dailykos.com/stories/2022/9/24/2124980/-Ukraine-update-Welcome-to-the-Army-of-Russia

[Irish_Dem]

1. Yes but doesn't this also mean the new RU recruits will give Putin 90 days of higher effectiveness?

Telenko says, you don't need much training to hold the front line.

[Tomconroy]

6. I've read that but this is an artillery war. One Ukraine govt.

official said 85% of casualties are from missiles and artillery shells. I guess we'll see what happens.

[Irish_Dem]

7. The Perpetua thread you posted says artillery alone cannot hold a front line.

Manpower is a critical piece.
And it takes little skill and the RU troops will be fresh.

Yes we don't know how this will play out.

I would not think the RU military is all of a sudden going to become competent.

But it is going to buy time for Putin and that is what he needs right now.
So the recruits will serve a purpose for him.

Andrew Perpetua
@AndrewPerpetua

"Russia’s critical lack of manpower is crippling their defense, and they are overly reliant on artillery, but artillery alone cannot stop a determined attack. Ukraine’s continued advances are creating a crisis in Russia’s defensive line."

[brewens]

2. Their forces will soon be largely restricted to major highways and towns because of mud.

That makes defense way easier. The Ukrainians will know some places they had defenses set up can't be attacked cross country by vehicles.

If it's a rough winter, those Russians are in for it.

[Lovie777]

3. WOW.....

how about much needed supplies besides weaponry, such as food, h20 and vodka, as well as shelter.

Just saying.

[rso]

4. Ukraine

Needless to say, these time constraints related to effectiveness do not apply nearly as much to the ukranian troops who are fighting for their freedom and whose perspective is different to that of the russian aggressors.

[Tomconroy]

5. Ukraine is rotating troops now. There are a lot of videos

being posted of Ukraine soldiers coming home and being greeted by their families. Very heartwarming.

[paleotn]

8. That's is a very, very good point....

It's a complex mix of physical and above all, psychological exhaustion, coupled with a lack of motivation from the start. Most Russian troops just don't want to be there. For the Ukrainians, it's a different equation. A fight for national survival plays a huge part and should never be overlooked, but combat takes it's toll no matter what.

Dad use to talk about this very thing in WWII. They'd spend 10 days or so on the line normally and then a few days in the rear for rest and refit. But it was never enough rest. At The Bulge, they were in near continuous combat for almost a month before any significant relief. And no matter how much rest they did get, combat effectiveness inexorably declined as total days on the line accrued. After about 150 to 200 days it plunged. He saw really tough, experienced units become completely combat ineffective as veterans became mentally exhausted and the merry-go-round of replacements kept getting killed and wounded. If the Russians try to fold the new levies into existing units as replacements, don't bother learning their names. They'll be gone in less than a week, replaced by someone else who's name you won't bother to learn. With only a few weeks "training" since all the Russian trainers are either dead, wounded or in combat units, that cycle will run even faster. A meat grinder. Create new formations with inexperienced command and control? The end result will be even worse.

[Lonestarblue]

9. The US needs to get Ukraine every weapon they need right now before Putin's new troops arrive.

There’s another reason to speed up support. If Republicans take back the House leadership this fall, when the new Congress is sworn in on January 3, 2023, all future support for Ukraine will be in jeopardy with Putin-loving Republicans in charge. Better to step up support now while we still can.

[Tomconroy]

10. I don't understand why ATACMS long range shells aren't

being delivered. Ukraine could destroy RR bridges in a week. This makes no sense.

[PortTack]

11. Ret Gen Wes Clark said the same in an interview..said the west needs to take advantage of this

Time between now and spring when the russians can get their new conscripts to the front.