538: Latino Voters Shifted Right in 2020. What Does That Mean for Arizona and Nevada This Year?

[brooklynite]

One major storyline coming out of the 2020 election was the rightward shift of Latino voters, who supported former President Donald Trump at a higher rate than they had four years earlier. Although about 3 in 5 Latinos voted for President Joe Biden, this still represented a decline in Democratic support from 2016, when around 2 in 3 backed Hillary Clinton. With November fast approaching, the outcomes in a number of races in the 2022 midterms could hinge on whether Democrats continue to lose ground among Latino voters.

Nowhere is this more true than in Arizona and Nevada, two states with large Latino populations and highly competitive races for U.S. Senate and governor. Exit polls from 2020 and other survey data suggest Latinos will make up about 20 percent of the 2022 electorate in both states. It’s important to remember that Latino voters aren’t a single voting bloc, as they have diverse views and backgrounds. Still, they will help decide control of the Senate and key swing-state governorships, and recent polls provide mixed signals about how blue or red these voters might broadly go.

In early September, Emerson College looked at the Senate and governor races in both states, finding extremely tight races across the board among likely voters. In Arizona, Emerson found Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly ahead of Republican Blake Masters by only 2 percentage points, 47 percent to 45 percent, while Democratic Secretary of State Katie Hobbs and Republican Kari Lake were tied at 46 percent in the governor’s contest. In Nevada, the pollster’s survey, sponsored by KLAS-TV and The Hill, found Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto trailing former Republican Attorney General Adam Laxalt by 1 point, 42 percent to 41 percent, while Democratic Gov. Steve Sisolak and Republican Clark County Sheriff Joe Lombardo were knotted up at 40 percent.

In all races, however, the Democratic nominee led among Latino voters: Kelly held an 11-point edge and Hobbs a 12-point advantage, while Cortez Masto led by 19 points and Sisolak by 16 points. Now, like most surveys, the sample sizes for Latinos in Emerson’s polls weren’t very big, meaning those data points have a larger margin of error. Nevertheless, they do provide some much-needed information about what’s going on among Latino voters in these two key states. And considering the tight overall margins, the data also shows how reduced Democratic support among Latinos could make or break their chances.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/latino-voters-shifted-right-in-2020-what-does-that-mean-for-arizona-and-nevada-this-year/

The critical thing to remember is 1) Latino voters are not a monolithic voting bloc and 2) they are not especially driven by immigration policy.

[gulliver]

1. We need to find out what shifted them right and get them back

It's a good article, but it would be good to see an analysis of the issues and concerns that lead to our losing some support from the Latino community. I'm thinking they didn't shift "far right," so Dems can probably accommodate their concerns and get them back.

[David__77]

2. Examining how Latino people voted in the Democratic presidential primary of 2020 is an important par

……part of that.

[nycbos]

3. Idiots on the far left advocating for abolishing ICE and the Border Patrol didn't help.

Guess who works for ICE and the Border Patrol in South Texas.

Latinos. Of course it was only the squad who talked about it. But maybe some of them believed it was Democratic policy and their jobs were at risk.

[leftstreet]

6. LOL that's not what the article reports

In Emerson’s polls of Arizona and Nevada, a sizable plurality of likely voters named the economy as the most important issue for their vote

But the second-most-cited issue in Emerson’s Arizona and Nevada polls was abortion access (16 percent in Arizona, 18 percent in Nevada), and voters who identified it as the key issue in determining their vote almost uniformly backed the Democratic candidates.

That tension between economic concerns and abortion rights may be especially pivotal for Latino voters because a large number of them are persuadable voters. That’s because many lack strong ties to the two major political parties, often because they are first-generation Americans or had first-generation parents who weren’t as politically engaged and didn’t pass along their partisan views.

Nothing there about ICE...

[LeftInTX]

9. ICE and Border Patrol are major employers.

Keep in mind:

Immigration can be perceived as a problem. Although most of their crimes are petty, like trespassing etc, the RW knows how to spin this to drugs and cartels and you name it. They know how to exploit crime.

This guy in Florida killed a sheriff deputy with a front end loader. (He is undocumented and was working under an assumed name) Fox is really exploiting this one. https://www.kktv.com/2022/09/23/deputy-hit-with-forklift-construction-site-killed-florida-sheriff-says/

Every time an immigrant commits a crime, it gets amplified. The RW is good at this stuff.

The RW knows how to spin any type of crime. Many Latinos are "law and order" types.

Almost all Latinos who are eligible to vote have been in the US for at least a generation. The majority had families who immigrated here during the Mexican Revolution

[leftstreet]

11. Yes, yes, but not what the article is about

Some interesting info in the article, but as usual no one is reading it

[betsuni]

7. +1

[kelly1mm]

17. Just off the top of my head, defund the police/ICE, 'Latinx' being pushed by woke whites, Black

Lives Matter protests/riots, an embrace of more socialism-like policies when many Latinos have fled or have family members who have fled 'socialist' countries, transgender rights/abortion rights (many Latinos are Catholic).

Latinos and many Black Americans are not socially liberal where as the Democratic Party social policies seem to be moving farther to the left. While this may be the correct position there will be some pain/adjustment along the way. And remember that the R's don't need to actually win the majority of Latino (or Black) votes, they just need to win maybe 30-40% of Latinos and 15% or so of the Black vote to be in a dominating position.

[czarjak]

4. Embracing the hate has conseQuences. Just saying.

[LuvLoogie]

5. Trump Latinos are racist and homophobic

And antiabortion. And gangbangers who connect with the trump-desantis sadism.

[brooklynite]

10. Are you planning to write off all Hispanic voters who voted Republican in 2020?

How about the ones who voted for Biden but voted R down-ticket?

[LuvLoogie]

21. Trump latinos? Yeah. Biden voters aren't trump latinos.

I know several latinos who voted for that criminal bigot trump four times. Racist against Blacks and Asians

An example is that racist Texan pendeja who accosted the Indian women in the parking lot recently. Most aren't that overt, but I think that women might have been a little drunk on top of it.

[LenaBaby61]

15. "Trump Latinos are racist and homophobic ....."

and many of them see themselves as white I'm often told.

I grew up with and still have many Hispanic friends here in LA County, and we're all in our 60's and into our early 70's, and they tell me that many of their relatives THINK of themselves as white, and not Hispanic.

One of my friends Victoria--who I've known since we met at parochial school at 5 years of age--so we're extremely tight--and she tells me all the time that she stopped fooling around with her relatives who look down their noses at her/her family and at other family members, because they see themselves as white. I ask her if they benefited from fatso's 2017 tax cuts and she looked at me and said "Hell no. They call themselves trying to fake it until they make it." She told me that they still haven't made it, and won't make it under Republicans. She tells me all the time, you'd be surprised--or maybe not--because I've told you about the self-hate and about my "White-orientated" relatives who see themselves as white and not Hispanic. One of her relatives has changed the pronunciation of his name Martinez to Martines.

[LuvLoogie]

19. Going along to get along.

A lot of pochos become corporate bros

[TheRealNorth]

8. I thought GWB did really well with Latinos...

So I don't know if what we are seeing is a reversion to the pre-Obama mean.

[Elessar Zappa]

12. We can reverse the trend.

We just need to target Spanish radio and television with ads attacking Republicans on the economy, healthcare, etc. In my experience, many Latinos (as well as other people) are motivated by kitchen table issues, not immigration policy.

[brooklynite]

14. "We just need to target Spanish radio and television"

Latino citizens, for the most part have been here for generations and speak English.

[Elessar Zappa]

16. Yes, that's true.

But many are bilingual and consume Spanish language media, at least here in New Mexico. I’m very involved in the community and can confirm this.

[PortTack]

13. Don't know about NV, but the driving force behind Dems winning in AZ is the decade long

Migration there of ppl from CA. Latinos in AZ are not, and are probably not ever going to be very dem friendly

[GreenWave]

18. Esto es pura paja!

Just because Miami and a few propagandized areas of Texas, does not mean there is a shift. This is RW BS designed to depress and confuse.

It would be the same as our people claiming there is a shift of white males to the Blue after Roe v. Wade.

In short 70 to 30 means success not a shift.

Democrats should run on the theme that Rs do not respect Latinos and whip up hatred against them. Also Republicans NEVER run a Catholic for President.

[brooklynite]

20. 538 is now "right wing"?

Is there any source you'll accept "bad news" from?

Its factual that hispanic votes shifted toward Trump and Republicans in 2020 and not factual that it was just "Miami and a few propagandized areas of Texas".

And do you really think there's a voter out there thinking "I was going to vote Democratic, but 538 said...."?