ABC News/The Washington Post poll

[Polybius]

While they have an A+ rating by 538, it could still be an outlier...

With his party struggling in the midterms, his economic stewardship under fire and his overall job approval under 40%, a clear majority of Democrats in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll say the party should replace Joe Biden as its nominee for president in 2024.

In the November midterm election ahead, registered voters divide 47%-46% between the Republican and the Democratic candidate in their House district, historically not enough to prevent typical first-midterm losses. And one likely voter model has a 51%-46% Republican-Democratic split.

Looking two years off, just 35% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents favor Biden for the 2024 nomination; 56% want the party to pick someone else.

Republicans and GOP-leaning independents, for their part, split 47%-46% on whether Donald Trump should be their 2024 nominee -- a 20-point drop for Trump compared with his 2020 nomination.

Read more...

[Me.]

1. I'm Getting Pretty Fed Up With This Meme

that the media keeps pushing principally because it's damned unfair. What this man has accomplished in two years is astonishing. Yes we still have problems...thank you former admin....but...Jesus wept...give the man a break and a hand. Do your part in helping set this country right.

[List left]

2. this -nt-

[underpants]

3. You summed my opinion up perfectly

[Me.]

5. TY

[mahina]

4. Exactly. Who benefits from this drip?

Not Democrats. It’s a self own. Suckers game.

[JohnSJ]

6. It is push poll nonsense.

[AllyCat]

13. Yes! Exactly this!

[PortTack]

17. Same! Look at what he has accomplished. Great way to lose the WH would be to primary an incumbent

[betsuni]

20. Rule: Never give Democrats the benefit of the doubt. Blame them for everything bad.

[Mad_Machine76]

24. THANK YOU!!!!

How many polls (any?) were put out asking if Trump should run again in 2020 when he was a disaster since day one?!

[Hortensis]

41. Plus, to me it's the LEAST interesting part of this poll on top of the MIDTERMS.

Also it's the least meaningful and essentially worthless for prognosticating 2 years out.

Anyway, 84M people voted for Biden in 2020 and, everything remaining the same, they'd vote for him again. We know that.

This Pew analysis of Biden's 2020 win and the voters behind it is based on validated voter data and actually informative.

https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2021/06/30/behind-bidens-2020-victory/

[Me.]

43. These Days

2 years is equal to 20. Who knows is probably the best answer.

[Hortensis]

44. "2 years is equal to 20." I tried to guess big things that might happen

with the planet in turmoil and couldn't. Especially if the Republicans get control of congress. Heard China's copying Russia's social media warfare tactic to try make that happen.

Oh, well. We're the party with the to-do list.

[Me.]

47. ...

[W_HAMILTON]

7. There's not one Democrat out there that could garner...

Last edited Tue Sep 27, 2022, 10:52 PM - Edit history (1)

...more support than Joe Biden for the primary nomination in 2024 and there's not one Democrat out there right now that would be more popular in his place.

Democrats as a whole don't fall in line behind their leaders like Republicans do and, in fact, a large subset seem to think it grants them some sort of cred by going against them. This inevitably leads to more dissension within the ranks, but if there was any Democrat out there that could have appealed to more Democrats than Joe Biden did, they would have won in 2020 because lord knows dozens of them tried -- and failed.

[Me.]

22. +1

[Hortensis]

45. Agree. It may be that those for whom finding the right LEADER

can be more important even than agenda misunderstand Democrats' calm focus on issues instead of person for lack of support.

But we quietly made Biden the sole candidate in a top tier of 1 -- because we thought he was our best chance to be able to pursue our progressive liberal agenda, and no one else ever came close.

[SlimJimmy]

8. I hate to be the constant greasy wheel but ...

The poll is of "registered" voters, half of whom won't be voting. Polls that use "likely" voters have a much better picture of the president among Democratic voters.

[Walleye]

9. I don't remember all the speculation about other presidents not running for reelection

Oh yeah and I hate Chuck Todd. He tried to get Jake Sullivan to be more specific about what we would do to Russia if they used nuclear weapons. Jesus Christ man don’t you know they do that kind of stuff in secret

[SlimJimmy]

11. It's a repuke talking point that's making the rounds.

The only thing that does concern me is that both President Obama and President Clinton lost seats in the midterms with 40's level approval ratings. Generally speaking, I'd like to see the President above 50% before I'll say that we won't lose seats.

As to President Biden seeking re-election, that's his decision, and he has at least another year before he has to truly commit. Any other talk is just that.

[Walleye]

12. I agree. I totally trust Pres Biden's judgment on this.I think the rest of the party should too

[Mad_Machine76]

25. There were some pundit rumblings

suggesting that Obama not run again in 2012 but he did and he won handily despite the midterm Republican Tea Party blowout. Didn't make the Republicans more popular, it actually made them less. If we lose in 2022, it will be because not enough people on our side didn't get out to vote, not because people seemingly now love the increasingly insane and unhinged Republican Party (who won't solve anybody's problems) or just don't like Biden.

[lpbk2713]

10. I saw it on the internet, so it must be true.

Bullshit.

[SalamanderSleeps]

14. At the end of the day 538 is a business on the internet.

All internet businesses, in one way or another, need eyeballs to become and remain viable, and some of these businesses don't really give a damn how they attract their viewers.

Just saying.

[Just A Box Of Rain]

15. Joe Biden is one of the all-time greatest presidents.

I will be supporting him with enthusiasm for re-election in 2024.

[newdayneeded]

16. I thought he climbed to the

mid 40% for approval?

[Mad_Machine76]

27. I thought so too!

[Demsrule86]

28. The latest polls show the high 40s

49%.

[Polybius]

31. No they don't

His average approval is nowhere near 49%.

[Demsrule86]

33. You have not seen all the most recent polls clearly.

[Polybius]

39. Oh I have

They don't average 49%. One outlier that was cherry picked doesn't count.

[PortTack]

18. Is this the latest greatest plan by the msm to stir up trouble within the democratic ranks?

We all know they want chaos and discord, what better way than to push polls that talk about Dems wanting to replace a very successful sitting president. What losers!

[Demsrule86]

34. And those that fall for such nonsense are bigger losers IMHO.

[PortTack]

46. ☝️☝️☝️☝️☝️☝️

[betsuni]

19. Myth there's a celebrity-like charismatic savior-leader out there that will "inspire"

people to flock to vote for Democrats. Myth there's a bully pulpit and if you just get the right leader to make fiery speeches, Republicans will think: Oh, you are right, I will vote for the right things now.

I dread if anyone except Biden runs in 2024.

[PortTack]

21. Nailed it!

[Demsrule86]

35. We will lose...those of us that live in the Mid West know only Biden at the moment can win must

states.

[Elessar Zappa]

23. I can't picture anyone doing better than Biden against a Republican.

[andym]

26. Biden's favorability is tied to inflation and the economy

Even Reagan was at 35% in early 1983 (his 3rd year) due to inflation/recession. But Paul Volcker had done his job well and the economy began to grow while inflation receded.

[Polybius]

30. So true

It's very early for 2024 talk.

[TheProle]

29. "Among Democrats, 52% would like Biden to run in 2024, while 48% would not like him to run."

https://law.marquette.edu/poll/2022/09/22/new-marquette-law-school-national-survey-finds-a-third-of-the-public-and-three-fifths-of-republicans-dont-believe-trump-had-secret-documents-at-mar-a-lago-bidens-approval-rating-ris/

https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2022/09/poll-biden-reelection-second-term/

[ananda]

32. I think the polls are just as tainted as the media.

They all seem to veer rightwing now.

[BlueIdaho]

36. Polls Schmolls...

They are all BS.

[brooklynite]

37. Why would it be an outlier?

Biden's approval rating is rising, but he's still underwater, and he was seen as a generational figure. Why wouldn't people want a generational change going in to 2024?

[Demsrule86]

38. I thought you said it was to early to discuss this...unless we want to lose, we won't

replace Biden...an incumbent has a huge advantage and I don't trust Wapo lately...they have been awful. I bet you Biden runs and we win. Who else could take PA, WI, MI, GA, or even Virginia? Go to 270 to win and play around with the states...and see what happens. We have only one path at the moment.

[Polybius]

42. I think we have a few paths

Biden is certainly one one them.

[ismnotwasm]

40. My eyes can't roll any higher

This is stupid