Interesting view of Hurricane Ian Projected Track

[genxlib]

The National Hurricane Center keeps all of the records and allows you to review their guidance in time-lapse

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2022/IAN_graphics.php?product=5day_cone_with_line_and_wind

This view shows every guidance release over the entire life of the storm. It allows you to see the history of the track, cone, warnings etc.

I know there is a lot of discussion of when the evacuation orders were given for Lee County. This will give you a sense of what the projection was over time.

In hindsight, we can all say they should have been evacuated earlier. In reality, that is a tough call that Emergency Managers struggle with.

[FakeNoose]

1. Early projections showed Ian going more towards Tallahassee & the eastern panhandle

However after 2 or 3 days the cone keeps getting revised to lower/central Florida and curving eastward, heading out to the Atlantic. Doesn't it seem like the state government (DeSantis included) held off warning to evacuate because they didn't want lower Floridians coming north? Where else were they going to evacuate to? They have to drive north and either head up to Georgia or go west into the FL panhandle.

Seems like the delay in ordering evacuation was due to not knowing where this thing was headed.

[genxlib]

2. I originally editorialized about the decisions but decided to back off in the original OP

I am a lifelong Floridian and have lived in South Florida for over 35 years. I lived through Andrew, Wilma and Irma. I am also in Search and Rescue and have done damage assessments after a number of storms including Katrina and Charlie and others. I am also an Engineer intimately familiar with the damage that wind and water can do and have spent the better part of my life designing to mitigate them.

Having said all that, this was a tough storm to call. Direction and wind speed changed a lot. It would have been prudent to ask people to leave early but Emergency Managers have to worry about putting too many people on evacuation routes at the same time. They also have to worry about being "chicken little". Most people will evacuate needlessly once or twice before you lose credibility with them and they will never heed a warning again. I believe this thinking keeps EMs from being overly cautious with early evacuation orders. It is a fine line to draw and for obvious reasons, can backfire.

I probably would have evacuated the barrier islands earlier but I have a hard time being overly critical of the decision makers that didn't. I have been in the cone dozens of times in my life. Of those times, maybe three have been close enough to warrant evacuations in my area. They turn away or peter out more often than they come right at you.

It is a lot tougher than people think

[GusBob]

3. Been thru alot of storms

As a general rule of thumb, the 3-day projection is often the most accurate

[nitpicker]

4. In all fairness

Only the UK models caught on early to the SE of Tampa track.

The other models would not agree with it until about sunset on 27 Sep.

[Yonnie3]

5. My understanding is that storm surge warnings were issued early on

I read that the storm surge warnings should have triggered evacuations per the emergency plans of Lee county but were not followed.

They had a tropical storm warning with a hurricane watch initially.

Does this archive have the surge warnings?

[genxlib]

6. There are a lot of options on that page

To review all of the graphics that the NHC publishes

But I don't see one that includes surge warnings. I see that one on the Weather Channel but I don't recall ever seeing it at NHC.

The closes I found was the verbal discussion in the "Key Messages" graphics. They first start mentioning the surge risk Monday 11am warning

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2022/IAN_graphics.php?product=key_messages

[Yonnie3]

7. There is a text archive too

at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2022/IAN.shtml?

A quick look at the forecast advisories shows

Storm Surge watch issued 0300 UTC Monday (11 pm Sunday EDT)

"A STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE
CARD SOUND BRIDGE WESTWARD TO KEY WEST...INCLUDING THE DRY
TORTUGAS...AND FOR THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM ENGLEWOOD
SOUTHWARD TO THE CARD SOUND BRIDGE...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY."

That is the entire area from North of Tampa to around the southern tip of Florida

"A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS."


Storm Surge warning was issued 2100 UTC Monday (5 pm Monday EDT)

"A STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ANCLOTE RIVER SOUTHWARD
TO FLAMINGO...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY."

Again this covers Lee County

"A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS."

36 hours appears to be the standard warning time for this type warning. I wonder if the plan that it has been alleged was not followed was triggered by a watch or warning.

I need to go back and see when the watches and warnings were issued but just don't have the time now.

The cone shows the predicted path of the storm, not all the significant effects. Reading a WaPo article, the officials seem to be fixated on where the cone is shown, but that is not all that they should consider. I guess it was just tl;dr and they looked at the graphics.