Cook Political Report: Pennsylvania Senate Moves Back to Toss Up

[brooklynite]

When we shifted our Pennsylvania Senate rating to Lean Democrat about six weeks ago, we included this key caveat — Republican spending against Democratic nominee John Fetterman had yet to ramp up, and that while Republican Mehmet Oz still has a hefty problem with his own favorables, that "it's not out of the question that this could move back [to Toss Up] as the election nears."

Now, with five weeks until Election Day, that's exactly where we find this race. In conversations with several GOP strategists and lawmakers — who a month and a half ago had begun to put the Keystone State in the loss column — this has emerged as a margin-of-error race that they once again see winnable. Republicans and Democrats alike admit the race has tightened and that Pennsylvania could be the tipping point state for the Senate majority.

As of Monday evening, the current FiveThirtyEight average shows Fetterman ahead by 6 points, while RealClearPolitics puts the Democrat with a 4.1 point advantage. But recent polls have shown the margin clearly closing between the two

https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/senate/pennsylvania-senate/pennsylvania-senate-moves-back-toss

[bucolic_frolic]

1. That's really bad news

A 6 point lead is never safe for a Democrat in PA. I always thought Fetterman should move to the middle. The state is more than progressives, however unfortunately.

[NoRethugFriends]

2. Yes. He should disavow his whole career.

[bucolic_frolic]

3. That's a sarcastic statement of universal generalization

Is he totally against the middle? Not last time I looked.

[NoRethugFriends]

11. He is campaigning as the person he is

It would be criminal (and dumb) to do otherwise.
And he is not campaigning against the middle. You made that up.

[empedocles]

4. Dems needed a strong November candidate - we desperately need that seat

[Demsrule86]

18. Fetterman always held some middle positions...can't help that in midwestern state. But he is OK

Last edited Tue Oct 4, 2022, 01:40 PM - Edit history (1)

just as he is and would lose authenticity if he moved to the middle. I was always concerned about Barnes who is a great candidate, But will Wisconsin elect a progressive anymore? My friends tell me that they have a progressive tradition...I hope that is still true. That being said, the seat is still competitive, and Ron Johnson wants to end both Social security and a woman's right to choose. I think Barnes may pull it out.

[kimbutgar]

5. Until the news gets around that Oz used animals and left them to die.

A great commercial against him is waiting in the wings.

[Demsrule86]

15. I hear it is coming...he is already all over twitter discussing this...using the campaign logo.

[FakeNoose]

17. Many of the lab animals were euthanized

Others survived the lab experiments, were not euthanized (killed) but we can be certain the experience was horrible for them too. All of this happened early in Oz's medical career, before he became a TV star on Oprah's show.

[Demsrule86]

31. No this was not early in his career. He was born in 60. He began his residency in 1986.

He was old enough to know better. He designed the experiment around 2004 which was very cruel to the dogs, puppies, and thousands of other animals involved in the experiment...despicable person. He received no NIH money after this either.

[FakeNoose]

33. OK I stand corrected

Honestly I wasn't making excuses for Oz. But it's true that he wasn't a TV star yet. He was just an no-name medical researcher, part of a group at Columbia teaching hospital. I believe he was also a professor in the medical school then, but recently he's been wiped from Columbia's website.

I really hope he loses this - and Fetterman wins - by double digits.

[Demsrule86]

32. And many were left to die in their cages...all animals involved in a study are killed after the

study in a merciful way. Those are the rules. Of course, I looked the other way when working in labs when I was in college as rabbits and dogs were smuggled out of the labs. Oz didn't Euthanize the dogs properly. And his experiment was bullshit...going after NIH money.

[lindysalsagal]

6. I've seen the anti-Fetterman ads: They're basically, : "He lets felons out of jail."

I don't believe PA voters will fall for that. They don't want mastriano, and that's not changing because of one weak TV ad. PA loves Fetterman.

[sarcasmo]

10. The GOP are running the same Willie Horton style, attack ads against Mandela Barnes.

[Demsrule86]

14. And yet the polls are close with most of them showing that Mandel Barnes has the edge...and I

doubt that the Roe vote is considered.

[Demsrule86]

16. I think many PA people know the truth about this...two kids stop and give either a friend or

relative a ride...the guy murdered someone and so all are charged. They get life without parole (Black of course). Fetterman helped get them out with the innocence program. He wept when they were finally released after decades in jail. Right now, they work for his campaign. Fetterman has a heart of gold, unlike puppy-killer Oz.

[budkin]

19. Every single GOP campaign is the same thing

It's only working against Mandela Barnes, which is disturbing.

[peggysue2]

28. The ads need to start hitting back, hard

Republicans are good at shouting and pointing to rising crime rates while turning lawlessness into a virtue. You cannot scream about crime and support an insurrection/coup. You cannot 'say' your opponent is weak on crime when you've done nothing but support weapons flooding American streets, guns that enable and increase crime. You cannot throw military gear at police departments and think that will solve everything; Ulvade is a perfect, tragic example.

McCarthy should be called up on the issue, too. I read this morning that his district has the highest crime rate in California.

What's up with that, Kev?

Turns out Congressional Republicans overwhelmingly opposed critical police funding in the American Rescue Plan. Because despite all the noise, the GOP's main strategy is obstructionism on all fronts. They should have the meme 'Defund the Police' thrown back into their miserable, hypocritical mugs.

Grind out the ads. Make them weep!

[jimfields33]

35. I don't think that's a good idea

McCarthy will just say that the Democratic Congress just passed gun laws so why are they working? I think that’s why you don’t hear democratic supporters saying anything like that.

[peggysue2]

37. We'll have to agree to disagree, Jim

In my mind, Dems need to fight back as hard as the Repugs do in throwing disinformation in all directions. Sitting on our hands or being afraid of how the GOP responds gets us nowhere. We need to defend ourselves on these attacks because the Republicans have no solutions other than guns, more guns.

As far as the Protecting Our Kids Act, it had/has broad public approval but is only a first step after years of Republican obstructionism. It certainly won't go any further if the GOP is in charge. Bet on it!

[Amishman]

64. I think the 'soft on crime' attack is doing some damage.

If our opponent was anyone but Oz, we'd be in trouble.

[TheRealNorth]

7. If Mastriano should somehow manage to win....

They might as well take rip Lincoln, Meade, Reynolds, and Hancock off the Pennsylvania State Monument st Gettysburg and replace them with Lee, Ewell, Pickett, and Armistead.

[Demsrule86]

12. Mastriano is losing very badly...his last 'big' rally had 60 people including the media. There are

no ads...he and his Christian mystic are trusting God to deliver the state. He will lose big and take Oz with him.

[FakeNoose]

21. Yeah Mastriano should be removed from the Pennsylvania legislature

... and he has no chance of winning the Governorship. I hope his political career is in the crapper where it belongs.

[Sugarcoated]

39. I know staunch Republicans who won't vote for Mastriano

He's not catching up

[PlanetBev]

8. I call bullshit

All the experts had the Kansas “Value them Both” anti-choice abortion amendment neck and neck. We all know what happened there. Wasn’t even close.

[Demsrule86]

9. I call bullshit on Cook. I have not seen one poll that supports this. Fetterman is going to win.

The death blow is the breaking story that is hitting mainstream media now...the puppy murders.

[JohnSJ]

20. Cook is a very accurate poll analyzer. They are saying it is leaning Democratic in the Senate

race, and I would not write that off as BS

What this should highlight, instead of calling it BS, is that turnout is everything, and as long as we have the turnout, we should be able to pull this out

The key to winning Pennsylvania statewide elections in the past, has always been the large population areas

[brooklynite]

24. Too many people seem uncomfortable with any bad news...

Personally, I prefer to plan my strategy around reality.

Cook isn't saying Oz is going to win; they're saying its highly competitive.

The 538 polling summary show's Fetterman's lead has been dropping since mid-September. Not precipitously, but enough that, by November, the race could be within the margin of error if the trend continues.

[JohnSJ]

27. We are on the same page Brooklynite, and Cook is a very accurate poll analyzer, and trying to write

their analysis off because it doesn’t agree with one’s anecdotal view, only demonstrates personal bias, not what it is

[W_HAMILTON]

30. No, they are saying the PA Senate race is now a toss-up.

Contrast that to, say, the NC Senate race (Republican +1.5), where the polls have shown a much closer race than PA Senate (Democrat +4.3), and yet Cook rates it as Lean Republican.

I trust Cook and I'm not claiming some sort of grand conspiracy, but it certainly is worth questioning.

[JohnSJ]

43. It probably is a toss-up. The latest polls that I have seen only show Fetterman up by around two

points.

Turnout will be everything.

[W_HAMILTON]

48. Then the NC Senate race should also be a toss-up.

And the latest poll, out just today, I believe, shows Fetterman +6.

EDIT: And that +4.3 Democratic edge in the PA Senate race that I mentioned CAME FROM the average of the latest polls per RealClearPolitics (https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/pa/pennsylvania_senate_oz_vs_fetterman-7695.html).

[JohnSJ]

49. I think so. Between a lean or a toss-up, I think are the same thing, which is why I state turnout

is everything.

If we have a large turnout, I think these races will go our way

[Demsrule86]

34. In a normal year that might be true...but Cook and others are underestimating the Roe vote.

I don't think they consider it at all...and using past years as a guide for what will happen. This is a very different year. Did he pick up New York 19? I don't think he did.

[JohnSJ]

45. It will all depend on turnout

[Demsrule86]

62. He did not pick up New York 19...you would think that would give him pause. Doom and gloom

never helps in elections...and when some constantly post negative news and ignore the good news, It is not hard to figure out. I realize that some have not gotten over Lamb's loss...Trust me when I say I lived in PA for a long time and Lamb would have no chance in the general.

[budkin]

13. Not worried at all after the dead puppies report

This race is as over as over.

[Tickle]

22. I'm afraid to ask

about the dead puppies but I have to ask.

Warnock is still ahead and he's going to win. Polls always tighten up at this time so I'm not worried either

[budkin]

23. Here you go

https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/dr-ozs-animal-testing-experiments-shows-why-we-need-a-complete-ban-rcna50513

[Tickle]

26. I knew it would be upsetting

and now I really really hate that man.

Thanks for the link

[peggysue2]

29. The puppy story is really disgusting

I read about it over a month ago and wondered why it hadn't picked up any momentum.

We all remember the Mitt Romney story of the family dog strapped to the roof of the car.

This is far worse.

In the original expose on this lab several people from the area said they heard the animals shrieking/screaming and that in one experiment an entire litter of puppies were basically tortured, and then euthanized.

All this in the pursuit of profit. Sickening.

If there's one thing left that unites Americans, it's the love of/for their pets. People will risk their own lives to save them. The recent hurricane in FL is a good example. A number of residents refused to evacuate bc they worried the shelters would not take their animals.

[BannonsLiver]

57. The OP can't stand Fetterman.

Was not their anointed donor candidate in the primary and has been sore about Fetterman ever since. But that’s not what the thread is really about.

He also posts exclusively negative polling and analysis on Dems so he can then turn around and sanctimoniously tisk tisk “lesser” posters for not swallowing the results wholeheartedly. That’s been the playbook for some time now. It’s like a kink. I knew who wrote this OP as soon as I saw the subject line.

[Demsrule86]

65. That is true...doom and gloom all the time.

[BannonsLiver]

91. People should start asking why that is.

I have my own theories. Will leave it at that. For now.

[rogue emissary]

25. The polls were always going to tighten.

Unfortunately, if a candidate skipped or limits the number of debates. They diminish their ability to hold on to their lead.

[Demsrule86]

36. I suppose this is another dig at Fetterman. Funny how it is demanded that we have multiple

debates but the GOP can skip any with impunity. I think debates are a waste of time...one works for me.

[bronxiteforever]

38. +100 Absolutely

[Demsrule86]

66. Thank you

[brooklynite]

47. And the other Cook Political report that uprated PA and MI Gov races was a dig at whom?

[Demsrule86]

51. You don't like Fetterman...there is so much good news and yet here we are with a Cook Report...

Cook can call it a toss-up if he chooses but Fetterman has been ahead in every legitimate poll. He is going to win the state. The polls this year are off...it was true in all the special elections and yet pollsters ignore this fact.

[brooklynite]

55. I want Fetterman to win because I want Democrats to win. Its that simple.

Now, if I was out to "get" Fetterman, explain how reporting a rating change to a bunch of political junkies would accomplish that?

I go through the political news and post what's topical. I don't feel the need to limit myself to feel good stories.

observation: I wasn't the only person who accepted the analysis of Cook Politico. Will you be coming up with critiques of anyone else?

[Demsrule86]

60. It is a dig...and I think Cook is wrong. But in any case Fetterman is up by 5 in all legit polls-

And considering the special elections, I think it is a mistake to use normal years for parameters for this election...sample doesn't have enough women, and the idea that the party in power loses may not hold this year but it is still used in poll calculations. Time will tell who is right and with the puppy murder story hitting credible news sources, times up for Oz.

[brooklynite]

67. So you're saying COOK wants to bias the outcome of the election?

By....changing a race rating that no ordinary voter knows exists?

[Demsrule86]

68. Of course not...but no offense intended, like you, he views this as a normal year with a normal

election. I don't think it is...he didn't catch New York 19...no one did and they continue to ignore Roe in the polling and maybe January 6 too. Thus the polls are not accurate this year. As for you, I think you focus on this sort of thing because you don't like Fetterman, and bad news kind of validates your opinion. I still say Fetterman is going to win.

[brooklynite]

72. So you think I WANT a Democratic nominee to lose?

My FEC report would suggest otherwise. And my DU history would suggest that I post topical stories whether they're "pro" or "anti". What I DON'T want to do is live in an entirely good news bubble as some folks here seem to prefer.

[Demsrule86]

75. No I do not. I just think you are human and you see things that confirm you negative opinion of

Fetterman. Who doesn't like to be right? It is the human condition. I have no doubt you want Fetterman to win. But at some point perhaps you became convinced he wouldn't and kind of look for (subconsciously) look for confirmation of this opinion.

[brooklynite]

78. I didn't say I agreed with Cook's evaluation.

I posted two stories from Cook, about ratings that went UP and about ratings that went DOWN. Because they're a respect political analyst and this is a political blog.

[Deminpenn]

90. It would be good to include Cook's definitions

of "toss up", "lean", "likely" and "solid" when you post then.

Most people think "toss up" means a tie, maybe a point or two difference, but that's not true for these handicapping projections. Fetterman had always been ahead of Oz. Cook re-rated the race because Fetterman's lead moved below their threshhold of "lean" and "toss up".

I'll just point out one other tidbit from the F&M poll released last week. Fetterman was drawing 59% support in SW Pa. That includes blue Allegheny County, but otherwise the counties that make up the region are red. Oz needs to roll up a big number in Westmoreland county to win, but at 40% support, that's not going to happen.

[brooklynite]

80. BTW: Will you be critiquing the reasons for THIS post?

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100217223451

[rogue emissary]

58. It's a critique of any politician that refuses to debate.

No, it's not funny that Republicans can get away with doing little or no debates.

Also, to be factual there have been Democrats like Tulsi that wouldn't do primary debates, and it didn't hurt her.

If Pennsylvania was as blue as Maryland or even Virginia. I would agree with you. In a state that can easily swing left or right. Multiple debate can help.

[Demsrule86]

61. Debates won't help. PA knows Fetterman...there were plenty of debates when he became

Lieutenant governor both in the primary and in the general. The losing candidate always wants more debates so no Oz doesn't get them. He can fuck off. And can I say, I think debates in general are a waste of time?

[rogue emissary]

63. Sure. If they know him so well. Why has Fetterman lead continued to shrink?

Using the 538 site poll averages. At the same time Shapiro has started to widen his lead.

Oz has run and had some of the worst news cycles this election. I'd said Walkers is just as terrible.

[Demsrule86]

69. Sorry to disappoint you, he has been leading the entire time and continues to lead.

[rogue emissary]

74. In my post where did I say he was behind Oz?

Also, why would that disappoint me?

[brooklynite]

82. Apparently you can't point out a tightening of the election without wanting it to happen...

...according to some people.

[Just_Vote_Dem]

84. No, they just don't believe the tightening

You're the one being the bully here.

[brooklynite]

85. Who have I bullied and how?

[Just_Vote_Dem]

86. Sealioning

is a type of trolling or harassment that consists of pursuing people with relentless requests for evidence, often tangential or previously addressed, while maintaining a pretense of civility and sincerity

[brooklynite]

87. And where did I do that?

I posted a political story. I then challenged people who claimed intentional bias on my part for posting it.

[Just_Vote_Dem]

88. ....

&ab_channel=midimix

[Sugarcoated]

40. Fetterman said he'd stick to the debate schedule that's been the norm for years in PA, is all

It would've been a bad look to acquiesce to the "I demand debate demand" tactic that is employed by the candidate down in the polls.

[rogue emissary]

59. We'll see in November but I was referring to the primary debates.

He didn't attend a few of them and these were before the health issues. Many were specifically minority focused and those make up the base of our party.

[Demsrule86]

70. OK he attended primary debates. And of course they mostly devolved into 'you pointed a gun

at a Black man' which did none of his competition any good.

[PortTack]

41. Cook political is probably the best pollster..but none of them have been very accurate over the last

Last edited Tue Oct 4, 2022, 03:48 PM - Edit history (1)

3 election cycles, especially 538 and RCP. RCP is a known right leaner, and 538, seems all they have is excuses post election for their inaccuracies. Pre 2020 the trafalgor group, another very right leaning pollster went from C- to A- on 538. Why? They didn’t change their polling methods.

As far as Cook, I think they are very cautious in their ratings, not wanting to be as wrong as RCP and 538. They rely heavily on historic trends- how many times has a state voted for a gop verses dem gov or president. That’s good, but these times are breaking all those historical trends. One only has to look at the special elections held within the past year to see there’s a seismic shift going on, and it isn’t in the direction of the right.

[Demsrule86]

46. New York 19 elected a Democrat...no right movement there.

[PortTack]

53. Edited my post meant to say it isn't in the direction of the right...sorry.

[brooklynite]

56. Cook isn't a pollster.

They evaluate races based on polls PLUS past voting behavior, voter registration, fundraising and host of other elements.

[PortTack]

81. Got it ..yes I know. wrong terminology on my part

[brooklynite]

83. More to the point, they charge very large fees (currently $350/year) for their analysis....

...the more likely its seriously flawed, the more likely they'll lose subscribers.

[Deminpenn]

42. In forecasting speak, a 5 pt lead is considered a "toss up"

between 5 and 10 pts is a "lean" and over 10 pts is a "likely".

[edhopper]

44. Oz has never polled above

the low 40s %.
He only has a down side from the current polls.

[JohnSJ]

50. That should be a reflection of republican enthusiasm, which should favor Democrats

[edhopper]

52. Let's hope

[Mad_Machine76]

54. Do we think that there will be a lot of ticket splitters?

If people vote hard against Mastriano, will they also vote for Oz or for Fetterman? I obviously don't know the answer to this but just curious.

[Demsrule86]

71. No, those that vote for Oz will vote Mastriano...and those who vote for Shapiro will vote Fetterman

[brooklynite]

73. Yes but...polling has consistently shown a higher vote for Shapiro than for Fetterman.

The latest poll had Fetterman +6 and Fetterman +11. SOME voters are apparently going to cast a Shapiro/Oz vote.

[DemocraticPatriot]

76. That is not true from the polls I saw a few months back...

when it was Fetterman who had a much bigger lead than Shapiro did.

Yes, that has changed since.

[Demsrule86]

77. Nope, it hasn't. The polls have shown both ahead by wide margins and both somewhat close...

It helps that Mastriano is a Nazi and a worse campaigner than OZ...you watch though. This dog thing is just starting. Oz won't survive it. I doubt he would have won anyone with Roe given the numbers.

[brooklynite]

79. The last 7 PA-GOV polls had Shapiro up 10-15; The last 7 PA-SEN polls had Fetterman up 2-7.

Not saying Fetterman won't win, but Shapiro has clearly been doing better, probably because Mastriano is a far worse candidate.

[ColinC]

89. Don't care.