Trafalgar is determined to ruin Nate Silver's reputation

[fanfanois]

Today a new Trafalgar poll has Hochul. Leading the Republican by 2% in the reliably blue state of New York.

In the aftermath of the 2020 elections, Nate Silver gave Trafalgar an A minus grade.
minimizing the fact that conservative pollster had Trump winning almost every battleground state that Biden ended up winning.

Moreover, Nate Silver has not mentioned Trafalgar since 2021, despite obvious signs that he is just making things up, and will have one of the worst performances by any pollster in 2022.

You would think that a mathematician treated as God by the mainstream media would have seen the signs.

Link to tweet

?s=46&t=4tGwKvtNAROdTw8WHoev_g

[BannonsLiver]

1. He didn't need any help ruining his reputation with me

His moronic hot takes on Covid completed that process without the help of some shadowy third party.

[DestinyIsles]

2. I think they are going to have egg all over their face after the midterms.

Trafalgar who is the less least transparent about their polls and only does a dart to a dart board approach towards Republican. A 2 point race in the NY governor race and 2 point race in Washington senate race are utter jokes. Democrats would have to a massively low turnout to get those numbers and they know it, they are just trolls at this point.

[durablend]

7. They also have Shapiro and Mastriano almost dead even in PA

I kinda doubt that....

[Fiendish Thingy]

3. Pod Save America alluded to a methodology scandal at Trafalgar

But I couldn’t find any stories in a Google search. IIRC, it had to do with miscounting/misrepresenting the number of voters contacted to reach their “n” of total respondents. This could alter the margin of error, as well as other factors affecting results.

Trafalgar is an openly Republican polling firm, and it’s polls are pretty consistently outliers.

If the methodology scandal proves true, 538 will almost certainly revise its A- rating, as it has for other polling houses that fudge their numbers.

[PortTack]

4. Thank you! I've been shouting about this very thing for the last 2-3 election cycles

538 and nate silver are not genius prognosticators. The excuses they offer post election are pitiful!

Very poor methodology to say nothing of trafalgor going from a c- to an a- with no change in methodology on the part of trafalgor.

[edhopper]

5. Who is a reliable poll agrigator?

[Amishman]

9. if you are looking for other modelers/predictors, here are a bunch

https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/senate-race-ratings
https://www.economist.com/interactive/us-midterms-2022/forecast/senate
https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2022-senate/

Of those, I'm partial to The Economist, though I do like 538.

[edhopper]

11. Thanks

[budkin]

6. Trump broke Nate Silver

And he never recovered.

[marble falls]

8. Nate has a loss column, too. I read Nate but he's a pollster/handicapper.

[Wounded Bear]

10. Nate's real interest is sports betting. His politics polls have fallen off substantially...nt