theories on Crimean bridge explosion

[sciencescience]

(reasons why not)

truck bomb:
- would have to be driven through Russia (it was going towards Crimea)
- Russia has scanners for trucks going across the Crimean bridge
- would have to knowingly kill the civilian driver
- some analysis on Twitter shows the bridge was lifted up by an explosion from below, and there is no crater/curve seen in the remaining visible road pieces from an above ground explosion

missile:
- Ukraine doesn't publicly have missiles with that range from land
- ATACMS doesn't have a big enough warhead for that type of explosion
- a missile would have had to escape radar detection and no anti missile defenses fired
- a missile big enough to carry that amount of explosives could be seen with the naked eye

boat/semi-submersible/submarine:
- would have been seen by radar or someone
- one frame before the explosions shows a ball of light above the bridge

[SheltieLover]

1. Simple solution: heroic Patron sneezed!

Ty for sharing!

[Tetrachloride]

2. Truck bomb seems least likely, even accounting for truck conspiracy theories.

[GoCubsGo]

3. Another theory:

It was a truck bomb. It was driven and detonated remotely by the Russians themselves. That bridge was one of two routes out of the region, and the quickest. Which would have come in handy should you be one of the many men in that region trying to flee being conscripted by the Russian Army. The added benefit is that they can now blame Ukraine and/or the US/NATO for destroying Poot Poot's bridge.

[Effete Snob]

6. It's not out of the realm of possibilities...

…that a Russian faction has had enough and is sabotaging their chances of a plausible win.

[GoCubsGo]

10. Or, they're THAT desperate for cannon fodder.

[Hermit-The-Prog]

29. Yet another: a former KGB agent decided to cut off retreat of soldiers who don't like his war

It provides propaganda for stirring up Russians and excuses for escalation.

[Effete Snob]

4. Probably just spontaneous combustion

Maybe something got into the concrete when they were building it and it slowly degraded into a spontaneously combustible explosive.

Pretty sure it was just something simple like that.

[viva la]

5. Boat or submersible could make sense

As it could be easy to conceal the dropping of bombs in 3 different places ahead of time.

[getagrip_already]

7. Note: a boat could have slipped in unseen...

Consider either a semi submersible running inches below the water, or a very low draft boat with a deep hull and little superstructure. Hell, it could even have been a military class suv.

It would not be visible to radar. It would be hard to see visually. It would resemble a piece of debris even to a flir camera.

If it was running with the current at low speed it wouldn't throw a wake.

It could carry thousands of kg of high explosives.

Just sayin....

[SheltieLover]

8. Could covert divers have planted explosives?

No expert here by any means, just wondering.

[Effete Snob]

16. As long as they could swim a long, long, long way

[SheltieLover]

21. Maybe boated in & picked up?

Quite a puzzle.

[Effete Snob]

22. Well, that's the trick

There's no really good way to get there from Ukrainian-controlled territory without a long trip ending in a narrow, heavily-protected straight where the bridge is.



Some sort of submersible drone would be a better bet than trying to get people and supplies in and out.

After annexing Crimea in 2014, around 500 - 600,000 Russians moved in. They are weighing the possibility of Crimea becoming a trap with no way out. The land route is closing and the bridge is disabled. There is a ferry, but that only has so much capacity.

So, they are getting out of Dodge...

[SheltieLover]

23. Ty for sharing

I've been busy here with life & haven't taken time to look up map, etc.

No clue.

Maybe pootin ordered it?

For lack of a better reason, I'm sticking with Patron's mighty sneeze.

[Effete Snob]

24. Careless smoking

Someone tossed a cigarette out of their window and there must have been a fuel leak somewhere.

Freak accident.

[TxGuitar]

25. No doubt there are many Ukrainian civilians

And Ukrainian operatives in those pink areas on the map you posted who own boats and have access to munitions. The boat didn't have to come from Ukrainian controlled territory.

[Tomconroy]

9. It was a missile. For reasons of their own neither russia

Last edited Sun Oct 9, 2022, 03:10 PM - Edit history (1)

Nor Ukraine want that known.

Just throwing it out there. I have no idea but it sort of makes sense to me.

[Effete Snob]

17. Does the bridge have an anti-missile defense system deployed?

[ProfessorGAC]

27. Seems Unlikely

Anti-missile systems are expensive. Nobody in that region has the resources to protect every important bridge.
So, I really doubt there was a missile defense system.

[GreenWave]

11. When in doubt

Is potato! Russian microwaves designed to cause cancer in people focus on a truckload of potatoes.

[mitch96]

12. I like the boat theory. This guy discusses a washed up drone boat near savastopol.

Ukraine proof of concept drill?
m

[sanatanadharma]

13. Truck vs boat thoughts

If it was a planned truck bomb, the planning and timing was poor.
A truck could have caused worse damage on the span over the shipping channel, based upon what happened. A dropped road in the waters would disturb the ship lanes.

A boat could not do the same to the high span, but could (did?) cause significant damage to the roadway closer to the water.
There was (is) considerable wind in the straights as is well seen in the videos of the moment. The rough waters would help hide a low profile boat in the pre-dawn/ breaking dawn; visually as well as radar.

[Effete Snob]

15. Really, really good point

There is one surveillance video from the bridge security which appears to show a bow wave coming out between the piers just before the explosion, which, sure, might look like a boat.

But that definitely explains the placement/timing, unless the point was to take out the train as well. In that case, the train determined when it was optimal for the truck to blow up.

However, they have been checking vehicles for explosives, and trucks have been going through those whole-truck scanner things that are used at various international borders.

I'm with team boat.

[ProfessorGAC]

28. The Truck Bomb Idea Has Another Problem

There's no way to effectively shape a device that large, and the 360 degree shockwave would have wasted a vast majority of the blast.
The boat idea (and I'm not endorsing that) at least takes advantage of water being an incompressible fluid.
So, a decent fraction of the down force would reflect up. Makes whatever mass of explosives used more efficient.

[sanatanadharma]

30. Thank you, I have been wondering how to explain the water effect

The water forced down would rebound (like a spring) adding to the explosion's upward vector.

[bluecollar2]

14. Clearly the assault was orchestrated by Hillary Clinton

In an operation underwritten by George Soros and the MSM to detract from the Hunter Biden's laptop.

Rumor is the codename for the operation was Barack Obama's Tan Suit and was carried out by European cells of BLM, ANTIFA, NOAA, ASPCA and rogue elements of the Greenpeace Group.

[bluestarone]

18. Probably won't know for sure, But i thought someone here mentioned that

The road damage was inconsistent with Truck bomb? The road was blown upward i think. Plus what shape is the truck in now? THAT would tell us what type explosive was used. If truck in BLOWN to HELL then truck bomb. If truck is still intact, (somewhat that is) then must be bomb of another source? Would be nice to get a picture of that truck.

[PortTack]

19. The Neptune missile has a range of 286K, is mfg in Ukraine. It's what sunk the Moskva.

[EX500rider]

26. Been trying to find if it is sea skimming and can be programmed for a...

....route via way points, Also not sure if the missile would lock on to a bridge, the warhead is 330lbs though.

[Chainfire]

20. Maybe it was a bomber that took off from Shangri-li.

It happened to Toyko.