Check this poll from Susquehanna on 538

[lees1975]

An early October poll shows Harris with a 15 point margin over Trump Sr. in a head to head presidential matchup. I can't click the screen to hold the page, but if you look here, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/ you'll find it today.

For real, a 15 point margin for Harris over Trump in a conservative poll. Interesting.

[dutch777]

1. Sounds too good to be true.

[mopinko]

2. i think the polls are off be at least 10 pts.

they have no idea who is gonna show up on election day, but i think it's gonna be kansas all over.
looking at a few of these races, most of the internal/campaign paid for polls r a couple points blue.
even at 5%, almost all are in that margin.

[Polybius]

3. It has to be a mistake (not your mistake, theirs)

Every other poll before or after that one has Trump winning. Also, that same Susquehanna poll had Biden beating Trump by only 4. Harris is not more popular than Biden.

[lees1975]

4. I don't know much about Susquehanna. They're B rated.

But there's been a decided turn against Trump in a lot of polling over the past two or three weeks, and a bump in the generic polling. And the polls that are usually pretty consistent, like Morning Consult and YouGov, are trending in the direction of Democrats by about 2-3 points per week.