Latest ny times/siena poll show republican gains. I don't have access to The NY Times

[JohnSJ]

but this was what a google search provided

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/17/upshot/midterms-poll-republicans-lead.html

https://www.nytimes.com › midterms-poll-republicans-lead
2 hours ago — Since then, the warning signs for Democrats have begun to add up, including Republican polling gains in key Senate races like those in Nevada, ...

I guess the question is are the young motivated to come out and vote Democratic?

If someone has details of this poll I welcome it so I can try to understand what is happening

[BeyondGeography]

1. Here's the problem

The biggest shift came from women who identified as independent voters. In September, they favored Democrats by 14 points. Now, independent women backed Republicans by 18 points — a striking swing given the polarization of the American electorate and how intensely Democrats have focused on that group and on the threat Republicans pose to abortion rights.

The survey showed that the economy remained a far more potent political issue in 2022 than abortion.

That’s from the article.

Photo of a 30-something female is under the headline with the following caption:

”I’m shifting more towards Republican because I feel like they’re more geared towards business,” said Robin Ackerman, a 37-year-old Democrat and mortgage loan officer.

Dobbs isn’t going to save us.

[vercetti2021]

4. Unfuckingbelieveable

Hey sell your personal rights away because they give tax breaks to the rich. What a dumb fucking person

[JohnSJ]

6. If that is an accurate view of the majority of women in America, why should I fight for their

rights if they won’t?

Don’t get me wrong, I voted straight Democratic on my mail in ballot in California, and for proposition 1, which encodes choice in the state constitution, and will continue to do so, but do these independent women really believe voting republican in the midterm will change the economic environment, that was caused by trump’s mishandling of the pandemic, trump’s trade wars, etc.?

[sarcasmo]

33. Women voting for anti-abortion candidates. Our nation is doomed.

[Takket]

37. Yeah that data is bad

Indies don’t swing 32 points in a couple weeks. Either the first or second poll is flawed. Hopefully it is the second. I can’t believe they would ever present data like that since it doesn’t pass the haha test. It’s like if you ask me the temperature outside and I tell you it is 250 you should know a mistake was made somewhere.

[JohnSJ]

38. Seems correct, at least I hope so

[Roland99]

39. 32pt swing in a month?? Bull-fcking-shit

[Cattledog]

2. The article is a criticism of the media rounding up poll numbers.

In short the 4pt lead the media reports is actually 2.5pts.

[Celerity]

20. 3.04 points: here are the actual numbers: 48.51 (rounding to 49) to 45.47 (rounding to 45)

Is four points the real margin? (Wonkiness 4/10)
Our poll may show Republicans ahead, 49-45, and yet it may not be accurate to say they lead by four points. In fact, they actually lead by three points.

How is this possible? Rounding. By convention, pollsters round the results to the nearest whole number. In this poll, the exact unrounded figures are 48.51 (rounding to 49) to 45.47 (rounding to 45). That’s a three-point lead.

[MerryHolidays]

3. Does anyone really believe there was 32% swing in independent women voters

from Democrats to Republicans in the span of one month?

Seems to me there is some wild noise in this polling.

[JohnSJ]

8. That puts things in a different light. I appreciate the context

[MerryHolidays]

10. Here's the exact quote

This is specifically what the article says on the swing of independent women:

The biggest shift came from women who identified as independent voters. In September, they favored Democrats by 14 points. Now, independent women backed Republicans by 18 points — a striking swing given the polarization of the American electorate and how intensely Democrats have focused on that group and on the threat Republicans pose to abortion rights.

[JohnSJ]

15. Thanks

[Celerity]

22. no paywall links

https://archive.ph/MbUlA

https://archive.ph/AxGRw

[PortTack]

14. No absolutely not! Wasserman and other reasonable experts say those kinds of shifts only happen

Because of some major event, a poor debate performance, a terrible bomb shell coming out. Think about it…it makes zero sense

[FBaggins]

28. Wasserman is incorrect

They can also happen due to normal statistical variation.

I can't see the poll's internals, but independents make up about 25% of the electorate. So there may have been fewer than 100 independent women in that poll. The statistical margin of error (applied to both sides and both polls) could account for the entire difference.`

[PortTack]

31. Wasserman is one of the best...so no I don't agree with you at all.

[FBaggins]

32. He is indeed... but that doesn't mean that this spin is accurate

In fact... you haven't even demonstrated that he said it.

Either way - it would be inaccurate to say that shifts like that only occur when there's big news. It would be especially untrue to pretend that the poll could be disregarded because of it.

[PortTack]

42. Hey..you know what...what you just said is YOUR opinion I'm sure formed from what you have

Read. Your are entitled to voice your opinion just as I am.

But here’s a couple of facts for you

The polling has been marginal the last 3 election cycles and beyond. Look at KS, NY 19, Palin in AK.

Posted here yesterday:
The Trafalgar Poll which is quoted by supporters of Tiffany Smiley is Republican funded. This lovely poll in 2020 was suddenly given a B or A- rating by 538 with no change in polling methodology..why?

Increasingly, one suspects that despite his claims to analytical rigor, at some very basic level, Silver does not actually know what a poll is. He is not alone in this; a fair portion of the country’s political punditry and opinion-making class is equally misinformed. In their conception, polls of opinion and sentiment represent not a snapshot of the present as informed by the past, but rather a hazy but prescient view into the future; not a measurement, but a prediction. “[Y]ou can actually write down what will happen in the future, with as much confidence as you write down the history of the past. Because it’s science!” This is why so much media discourse around polling emphasizes a framework that paints polls of present attitudes as a form of absolute constraint on where sentiment will go.
More at the link

https://www.commondreams.org/views/2019/10/30/nate-silver-making-he-goes

My opinion…from the above and other worthy sources, political polls due to right leaning tendencies (RCP, trafalgar, rasmussen and others) loss of land lines and other circumstances are really not that accurate!

As far as saying I picked my statement out of the air that polls don’t shift that quickly…I read it I believe as a quote on Cook Political. Can I “demonstrate” it at this particular moment..no. But no….I don’t just make things up!

[FBaggins]

45. Only one of us claimed that their opinion was informed by an expert in the field

Perhaps you missed that you haven't backed that up yet?

As for Trafalgar - the reason they probably received a high grade was that for three straight cycles their polls were among the closest in the industry. Finding a couple of counter-examples doesn't change that. Most pollsters missed LOTS of calls over the last three cycles.

Increasingly, one suspects that despite his claims to analytical rigor,

And why would you cite a minor novelist (looking forward to cracking the top million Kindle books someday) as a "worthy" source on one of the most prominent polling analysts in the country? And that's before we even consider that 538 ceased to be just Silver's glorified podcast years ago.

[PortTack]

46. Why would I site this article? Regardless of what you call a minor novelist, the article is correct

And sites facts, and they are not the only one.

Look up what 538 did in the dem primary following Biden’s loss in IA, and NH.

Take a look at the comments in this post. I’m not the only REASONABLE doubter. Maybe you should challenge them as well?

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100217057835

Done with this..going to ignore…yeah!

[mcar]

35. I don't believe it at all

[Lovie777]

5. Well I've been told .......

Registered Voters is key not Likely Voters in the polling in the end.

[MerryHolidays]

7. Likely voters is a better predictor

However, there have been a huge number of new registered voters as a result of Dobbs. They may not be accounted for.

The strongest card the Republicans have is to slam the Democrats on inflation. That's about it. The issue ultimately is how strong that card is.

[Deminpenn]

40. Pollsters have been struggling with LV midels

since they missed the "unlikely" voters who showed up to vote when Trump was on the ballot.

Now some, maybe the majority, of pollsters seem to be weighting their LV models toward high R turnout. They appear to be becoming more like Trafalgar, a pollster known to be highly biased toward Rs.

As for subgroups in polls, depending on how many were interviewed, the MOE for any individual subgroup can be quite large. Remember the Morning Consult poll of a few years ago that got 1 conservative black male among it's survey participants? Because there were so few black poll participants, that 1 male skewed the entire subgroup.

[DestinyIsles]

9. Some problems with this poll

A 8 point lead for young voters 18-29 I found that hard to believe and sample size among women is laughable, they are monitoring a very low Democratic turnout.

[Celerity]

25. it's +12, but little chance my 18-29 cohort (I will be 26 by election day) is only Dems +12

I think you saw the don't know/refused category, which was 8%, and thought that was the spread

[betsuni]

11. I have no faith in the American people.

[BeyondGeography]

12. We shouldn't

eom

[Cosmocat]

13. Yep

nm

[Sympthsical]

16. The article you linked is mainly about poll methodology.

TLDR, if you account for how pollsters round numbers, the actual lead shown is closer to 2.5%.

The article the first responding poster is quoting is a different article.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/17/us/politics/republicans-economy-nyt-siena-poll.html

The gist of the second article is that the further voters gets away from issues over time, the less important they become. For example, after the parade shooting in July, Guns were a huge issue for 9% of voters. Three months later it's down to 1%.

So the question the article is asking is, is the Dobbs fury of summer wearing off in an autumn dominated by inflation and cost of living increases?

Basically, how much can our party count on voters' attention spans?

That's a question I've had simmering the entire time - does Dobbs last into November? Well, we've only a few weeks left to see. Inflation really is wrecking us, and we've been minimizing it to an absolutely stunning degree. People notice that sort of thing.

[JohnSJ]

17. Not much that can be done about inflation at this stage, and if people believe

electing republicans in the midterms will solve that, they are very misguided

[moose65]

18. I'll say!

Is there a single Republican candidate who has a plan to deal with inflation? If so, I sure haven't seen it.

I wish some of the talking heads, instead of interviewing each other every day, would simply ask Republican candidates, "What is your plan to deal with inflation?"

[MacKasey]

19. Totally agree

[Sympthsical]

21. I don't disagree

I just feel like "Pretending it isn't happening" is probably on the worse end of the strategy. Yes, you get sops like, "It's global!" It is, but that isn't what voters want to hear. They want to hear about what you're going to do to bring them relief from the pinch they've been feeling all year long that keeps getting worse for them.

A shrug is just the weirdest response.

Our election strategy is basically anger over Dobbs, Jan 6th (which isn't a thing that's driving anyone to polls), and just generally hoping people think Republicans are worse.

It feels kind of . . . I dunno, negligently passive?

[Celerity]

26. it is also reactive, not proactive

Our election strategy is basically anger over Dobbs, Jan 6th (which isn't a thing that's driving anyone to polls), and just generally hoping people think Republicans are worse.

[HariSeldon]

24. There is a correct answer to inflation

Congress needs to impose large taxes on the rich...those who are rich enough to absorb the hit without eroding their lifestyle. This soaks up the excess dollars from circulation, making the remaining dollars each cover more productivity -- deflationary pressure.

Unfortunately, with so many blue dogs in the House and a narrowly controlled Senate, this is not happening. Democrats need to turn inflation into a "Republicans' fault" issue by trying to act, but Manchin and Sinema will probably tank any attempt to show Democratic unity on this.

[DestinyIsles]

23. I see the usual concern trolling here on DU over one flawed poll.

[Celerity]

27. Welcome to DU

About DestinyIsles
Statistics and Information
Account status: Active
Member since: Mon Oct 3, 2022, 05:37 PM
Number of posts: 20

[Demsrule86]

29. The Times points out it is only three points and when you see their method...it is obvious

why they feel the need to explain this poll. There is not one accommodation for the fact that more women are registering...Roe is being completely overlooked. They are using 2020 models and basing some of their predictions on whether the voter likes Trump or Biden. The way they determine likely voters is even more convoluted and they have increased the number of voter with little or trade school education. I call bullshit on this poll

What’s different about our polls this year?
A few weeks ago, I noted that most pollsters this cycle weren’t making big methodological changes. Instead, they’re doing something more like tightening the screws on an old boat after a rough storm in 2020, rather than going out and buying a new boat. But I didn’t actually mention what screws we’ve tightened this cycle. Here’s a quick summary:

We’re weighting on method of voting in 2020 — whether people voted by mail, early or absentee. It’s an important predictor of vote choice, even after considering the partisanship of a registrant. Registered Republicans who voted on Election Day, for instance, were more likely to back Donald J. Trump than those who voted by mail. Weighting on this in 2020 wouldn’t have made a major difference, but it would have brought some of our polls about half a point or so closer to the final result.

We now use additional information about the attitudes of respondents in determining whether they’re likely to vote, including whether respondents are undecided; whether their views about the president align with their party; whether they like the candidate they intend to vote for; whether they back the party out of power in a midterm; and so on, all based on previous Times/Siena polls. At the same time, we now give even more weight to a respondent’s track record of voting than we did in the past.

We’re changing how we characterize people who attended trade or vocational school but did not receive a college degree (Wonkiness rating: 6.5/10). The effect is a slight increase in the weight given to Republican-leaning voters without any post-high-school training, and a decrease in the weight given to the somewhat fewer Republican voters who attended some college or received an associate degree.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/17/upshot/midterms-poll-republicans-lead.html

[Deminpenn]

41. To summarize..

We really have no idea who is going to turn out.

[Tennessee Hillbilly]

30. From what I've read, this shift is mainly due to ...

a relentless barrage of repug attack ads full of lies and distortions.

[Elessar Zappa]

34. It's really hard to believe

that the independent women went so far over to the Republicans in just one month. I take all polls with a grain of salt, including those that favor us. Polling just doesn’t seem to be accurate anymore after 2016, the Kansas abortion vote, the Palin race, etc.

[budkin]

43. No way.

Not buying it AT ALL.

[brooklynite]

44. I've mentioned this before: we need to distinguish between "many" and "most".....

Many women do need access to an abortion. Most do (and will) not. Assuming they would all gravitate towards pro-choice candidates (especially in Red States) is not based on hard data.

[liberalmediaaddict]

47. The United States of Amnesia

They have no idea what they're voting for. If Republicans take back the House and Senate they're not going to lower inflation. Instead we're going to get 2 years of...

- government shutdowns over the debt limit
- impeachment hearings for Biden and his cabinet.
- investigations into Hunter Biden, Dr. Fauci and imaginary voter fraud.
- endless conspiracy theories, culture wars and greviance politics.
- Biden's legislative agenda will be dead.

It will be an unending house of horrors with Trump pulling the strings.

Americans should know better at this point than to vote Republican. Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.

[IcyPeas]

48. the Dobbs decision was fresh and in the news all the time when Kansans voted.

it isn't discussed as much anymore.

we have to keep fighting.