Before people freakout about the latest NYT poll

[DestinyIsles]

just remember polls are a snapshot, more of a what if scenario not how the actual election is going to turn out. It’s a very small sample size or how they sampled each party. They are measuring a low turnout among Democrats. A fox news poll had us winning about 3 points yesterday. I'm not saying it could be wrong but take polls with a grain of salt, we have to continue doing the work.

[brooklynite]

1. "They didn't give a sample size of the poll". Yes they did...

Based on a New York Times/Siena College poll of 792 likely voters nationwide from Oct. 9 to 12, 2022.

[Lovie777]

2. Ah yes ......

Dems only show up when it concerns the president election scenario.

Again based on pass mid-term elections.

[Beausoleil]

3. Pollsters are always betting the farm

on who they think "likely voters" are, usually based on historical trends.

If some issue occurs that will change that lv scenario, they are not equipped to efficiently factor that in.

So you get polls of how important certain issues are to those same "likely voters".

They really don't have any idea who is going to vote.

[blm]

8. The polls don't include newly registered voters.

Midterm polls almost always focus on ‘likely’ voters - people who have voted midterms in the past as well as presidential years.

[yellowdogintexas]

10. exactly! Likely voters have some type of voting record

However, there are large numbers of registered voters who have never once been to the polls. Or they last voted years ago. These folks won't be in the poll.

Voters registered since 2020 have no voting history except maybe local elections if they are held in odd years like ours are, and they are no help at all because no one's party is on the ballot.

I have several non voters in my small (1300 registered voters) precinct. Big blank lines in their voting history!! I don't have a way to pull them up in my data base so I can call them (at least I have not figured it out) There are voters who only voted in 2008 in the Dem primary and the general then never again.

I don't think polls are at all accurate, but we need to vote like they are.

I kind of have this attitude: "Oh Yeah? I'll show you who's leading my poll!" Then I vote.

[blm]

12. ✔️✔️

[Sympthsical]

16. This is why I don't have a good sense of what's coming

This is a factor with Dobbs in particular. Who registered and who will show up? Ordinarily I'd be fairly dour about our prospects with the economy, but that Kansas result is constantly pinging in the back of the mind. Was that a harbinger? What kind of staying power does that enthusiasm have? How many people who don't ordinarily vote in midterms are just waiting to make their displeasure known?

We'll know in three weeks. I don't want to predict anything. Right now I'm settled on, very, very, very, very cautiously maybe hopeful kinda.

[rso]

4. Polls

Yes, and keep in mind that even a FOX poll released yesterday has democrats ahead by 3 in the generic preference.

[BradAllison]

5. America deserves what it gets

And the people here celebrating as well do as well. You know who you are.

[Silent3]

15. I don't believe in group punishment

And I sure as hell don't deserve the results of Republicans seizing power and destroying democracy. Most of us don't deserve that. Our power to fight off ignorance and hate isn't unlimited.

[BradAllison]

18. "But my son's graham cracker's are soooooo much money!!!!!"

Go argue with those idiots. I'm looking for a way out of relying on these morons.

[Silent3]

20. I do argue with them. I also argue with the idea that "America" as a whole...

..."deserves" the fuck-ups Republicans are causing all of us.

[RAB910]

6. Polls are based off of historical turnout

I am expecting the turnout not to match what it has been in the past. This is why polls missed so badly on Trump in 2016

[yellowdogintexas]

13. this year is most likely going to be an outlier nt

[ColinC]

7. 2022 Polls have been adjusted based on 2020 results

2020 was a very unusual election due to covid. Because of that, I expect polls to be very, very wrong (as they were in the most recent specials).

[intheflow]

9. That 45-64 age group seems really skewed.

Most other age groups have about a 10 pt spread or less favoring Democrats, and over 65 is a 50/50 split. Most recent elections have had been a near 50/50 split. Since the last election we've had an insurrection, Trump's attempted coup has been exposed, and Roe was overturned. But somehow we're supposed to believe 45-64 year olds want more Republicans by over 20 pts? That's outlier shit and should have raised flags for the pollsters.

[yellowdogintexas]

11. we still need to at least be apprehensive and vote accordingly

which means of course in large numbers

[LetMyPeopleVote]

14. From the Hoarse Whisperer

Link to tweet

[LetMyPeopleVote]

17. There was one question in the NYT poll that generated a lot of bipartisan agreement.

Link to tweet

[Sky Jewels]

19. A factor connected to voter enthusiasm that's not been discussed enough:

This is the first time since 2014 that Trump has not been on the ballot or in office during a major election.